LAHORE – The monsoon is projected to be average, even below average in the region this year.
However, it doesn’t means a reduced risk of floods.
A single spell of heavy rains can cause disastrous situation. The glaring examples are two recent incidents in Nepal and India. In Nepal’s Koshi province an overnight rainfall triggered flooding and landslides leading to five deaths and 28 missing people.
A flash flood in India’s Sikkim washed away bridges and major highways displacing local communities and thousands of tourists.
Climate change has significantly modified rainfall patterns, intensifying the frequency and magnitude of precipitation. As a result, heavy rainfall within short durations have become more common, posing severe flood risks.
As per the ICIMOD, four-month precipitation outlook from May to August 2023 indicates that near-normal conditions will persist in most of the basins except the Ganges where relatively some deficit is expected. A minor surplus is expected of the lower parts of the Indus basin.
June–September are crucial months with the monsoon rains accounting for 80% of the region’s annual precipitation. The increasing unpredictability of the season, however, is causing chains of disastrous events, leaving countries in the region struggling to adapt and respond.
Last year, Pakistan witnessed unprecedented floods, which led to 1730 deaths and economic losses of over USD 15 billion.
Monsoon forecast this year is strikingly similar to that for 2014, when average to below-average rains were predicted across South Asia. The year proved to be a disastrous one for Nepal, where heavy rainfall from 14–16 August caused massive flooding and landslides in 18 districts, leading to 53 deaths, countless displacements, and economic losses of USD 140 million.
The impact of monsoons is increasingly devastating each year, and countries in the region continue to grapple with the challenge.
Both the governments and public at large should take necessary measures to cope with any eventuality. Losses could be minimized if not totally averted by better planning on the basis of early warning.
ICIMOD has partnered with national and local entities to improve forecast and early warning systems in the region.
Community-based flood early warning systems give communities a lead time of a couple of hours to make critical life-saving decisions.
With ICIMOD support, partners have installed three stations in Afghanistan, seven in India, 11 in Nepal, and five in Pakistan.
Several other development actors are also involved in installing community-based flood early warning systems in the region. It is vital that more such early warning systems be installed in major flood-prone tributaries. For maximum impact, scaling of these efforts is necessary. The region needs to make significant national-level investments in forecasting and early warning systems.
This is a pivotal moment to address the impacts caused by past monsoons and work towards a safer future.
Flood risk increases despite normal monsoon rains this year
