THE security challenges facing the state and society of Pakistan can largely be attributed to the geopolitical location of Pakistan and its ideological basis. Indeed, Pakistan ideally fits into the Pivot State concept, which is based on the Heartland Theory of Sir Halford John Mackinder. There are two opposing dimensions of the geopolitically pivotal state of Pakistan: a) owing to its pivotal geopolitical positioning, the state of Pakistan has been bestowed with countless blessings, b) is remaining aloof and underutilization of the geopolitical location of Pakistan turned this blessing into a curse. Over the past seventy-five years, Pakistan could not really exploit its geopolitics for its own benefit. Thus its strategic location has been used to the disadvantage of Pakistan and for the strategic advantage of others, especially the major powers. Whether it was the era of cold war, culminated with the disintegration of the former Soviet Union or the 21st century war against terror, the power play in the region has been against the national and strategic interests of Pakistan. Even today, there is sufferance of the state from a security perspective because of its geopolitics coupled with some other factors.
After Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in mid-August, 2021, unexpectedly, western borders of Pakistan became more unsafe and insecure. This despite that, during the war against terror, Pakistan suffered a loss of over 80,000 humans and over $149 billion on account of economic losses. The contemporary security challenges facing Pakistan is an extension of its past security dilemmas, predicaments and causative features. The Global War against terrorism was a well-planned strategic offensive that was indirectly launched to target the Pakistani State, society and security institutions. The desired end result of these strategic planners was to convert Pakistan into a state similar to Iraq, Libya and Syria. This strategic planning was reversed and defeated by the bold and professional defence forces of Pakistan with the help of its masses. This setback and demeaning blow to the well-planned events was never anticipated by the architects of this strategy.
Failing to attain their strategic objectives, the rival powers are all set to activate elements within Pakistan that can trigger conflicts based on ethnicity, sectarianism, provincialism, sub-nationalism, misconceived religious ideologies like TTP and create social unrest at the domestic level. Domestically, there are many political forces (religio-political and ethno-political) which can act as an instrument for the foreign spying networks in a bid to achieve their political mileage against the current political set-up. The worst form of security challenge is a well-orchestrated defamation campaign against Pakistan Army and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which has already been launched by rival powers through their tools within and outside Pakistan. Through hybrid warfare, a defamation campaign was launched against the military. The process was somehow controlled after the unfortunate incidents of May 2023 where security institutions and installations were targeted directly and indirectly.
The external security challenges include the evolving situation in Afghanistan, where the Taliban Government has proved unfriendly to Pakistan and allowing the TTP and other militants to cross Pak-Afghan border to attack Pakistani areas. Pakistan facilitated the peace agreement signed between the US and the Taliban on February 29, 2020. Until the formation of a broad-based government along with the restoration of durable peace and stability in Afghanistan, Pakistan will remain apprehensive with numerous security challenges from its western frontiers. Despite promises, the Taliban did not form an all inclusive government. Moreover, there have been constant attacks on Pakistani military posts by TTP and Afghan nationals since 2021, after the Taliban take-over and the formation of the Interim Afghan Government in Kabul. Under the patronage of Afghan Taliban, TTP is demanding concessions which are tantamount to compromise on national integration and sovereignty of Pakistan. For the last two decades, there has been repeated usage of Afghan soil against Pakistan where the NDS-RAW nexus has caused irreparable loss to Pakistan from the perspective of human casualties and economy. It seems that the process of this nexus is still continuing in the covert form with the change of new faces at Kabul. Indeed, the Taliban take-over of Afghanistan may have many other objectives of international powers with many more repercussions for the security of Pakistan.
The unsettled dispute of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJ&K) is another constant security challenge for Pakistan. After the illegal and unilateral annexation of IIOJ&K in August 2019 as union territories, the situation in the occupied state has further deteriorated. There are massive human rights violations and demographic changes made by occupying Indian forces in IIOJ&K. In the absence of any worthwhile efforts for reversal of Indian action of August 2019, India has geared up its brutal actions and demographic changes in IIOJK.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a constant target of India and its western allies. Due to the failure to raise any legal query against this gigantic economic project, rival spying agencies of hostile countries have been attacking engineers and labourers working at various sites of CPEC. Otherwise there has been slow progress on the project from 2018 to 2023. There is a need to clearly perceive the project and implement it in its initially planned form and format. Besides, Pakistan must secure its strategic and economic interests from the project, keeping in view the national interests of the state rather than a few individuals.
The biggest question is, with unique geopolitics, resilient masses and numerous resources, why Pakistan is economically weak, socially fragmented and internationally ignored. Is there a leadership crisis coupled with bad governance or conspiracies against the state from various quarters? Indeed, the security challenges facing Pakistan today are more serious than ever before and need an in-depth analysis. In this regard, the government, political forces and state’s institutions must deliberate to formulate a comprehensive national strategy to tackle the emerging security challenges, social issues and economic problems.
— The writer is Professor of Politics and IR at International Islamic University, Islamabad.
Email: drmkedu@gmail.com
