Terror stalks the land again. The dark sinister and blood thirsty forces of obscurantism and religious fanaticism are once again targeting the state security forces and common citizens and wreaking havoc across the length and breadth of the country. Pakistan is once again reliving the scary specter of the times when the TTP and their supporters ruled the roost in the North Waziristan and South Waziristan agencies and had complete control of the area in Swat and Malakand. After the hasty withdrawal of the American forces from Afghanistan the new Taliban Govt. has provided complete support and backing to the militants of the Pakistani Taliban and they are now free to launch their attacks from the safe havens in Afghanistan.
It all started during the last quarter of 2022 when December became the deadliest month in over ten years and there were over 970 casualties suffered including 282 army personnel. This new wave of terror is masterminded and launched by the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan and the Islamic State of Khorasan the regional branch of ISIS. The reason given for this new wave of violence and terror is the cancellation of the ceasefire agreement on 28th November 2022 by the TTP blaming the Pakistan Govt. for breaching agreements and criticizing the Pakistani security forces for actions across the borders in KPK and Baluchistan.The TTP demands the restoration of the special status of seven border regions that were annulled in May 2018 and the release of dozens of its detained members. It also wants the Pakistani army out of former no-go areas, presumably to establish its own Islamic caliphate. Islamabad brushed these demands aside as ‘non-negotiable’.Faced with a determined retaliation from the Pakistan army the TTP militants raced back to the safety of their sanctuary inside Afghanistan where the TTP high command including their Chief Wali Mehsud enjoy the protection and hospitality of the TTP Govt. in Kabul.
With the TTP top leadership and strategists safely ensconced in the safety of Afghanistan it has now become a sore point in any talks with the Taliban regime in control of Afghanistan. The Pakistan Govt. has repeatedly demanded strict control and punitive action against the TTP for launching attacks on Pakistan from their safe havens in Afghanistan, but in all media talks the chief of the TTP has vehemently denied that his militants are using Afghan territory for attacks on Pakistan but has admitted that his group is now active allover Pakistan. The regime in Kabul refuses to take any action against the TTP for reasons best known to them but it is clear that they are hesitant because the KP province is predominantly populated by ethnic Pashtun tribes who are settled on both sides of the border and the TTP is dependent on this community for their free movement and militant activities in Pakistan. The Afghan Taliban are also composed of Pashtun groups and they profess an ethnic and ideological affinity with the TTP. The Afghan Taliban and the TTP were close partners against the forces of the USA and NATO during the twenty years war and struggle against the forces of occupation in Afghanistan. When the Pakistan army launched their grand operation called Zarb-i-Azb in the Taliban controlled areas of Pakistan all the top leadership of the TTP took refuge in Afghanistan and were welcomed by the Afghan Taliban. Apart from local and ethnic reasons the geopolitical conditions in the world could be another factor that is contributing to the resurgence of terrorism in Pakistan. This is the time of some intense rivalry and confrontation between the USA and China. The East Turkestan Islamic Movement and the ISKP have pledged to attack all Chinese interests and installations in this region. IKSP has churned out numerous publications including some books and magazines that focus on China and their regional interests. These Islamic groups are considered as proxies of the USA by the Chinese leadership and the murder of many Chinese nationals working on the CPEC projects in the same context.
Political analysts and critics of the military establishment believe that the resurgence of terrorism is also due to the Army’s involvement and interference in politics. In a televised speech on 27 November 2022, just days before his resignation, former Chief of Army Staff Qamar Javed Bajwa conceded that the military had been meddling in politics, despite a conscious decision in early 2021 to stop ‘unconstitutional interference’. Even after his retirement, Bajwa admitted to ‘managing’ Pakistani politicians, journalists and foreign affairs.The ouster of Imran Khan by a vote of no confidence in April 2022 resulted in a major political and economic crisis. Imran Khan first accused the US for getting him out and then targeted the army chief but it appears that the military establishment is still fully involved in politics despite a public announcement of neutrality.
The political and economic crisis in the country has severely affected the military’s ongoing crack down on the terrorist militants in the country. The internal situation has emboldened and encouraged the TTP and its affiliates to launch more attacks against the security forces of Pakistan. The ground reality today is that we should be prepared for more violence and terrorist activities during this year and the next.
—The writer is Professor of History, based in Islamabad.
Email: tariq.aqil@headstart.edu.pk
—
