IN his article entitled, “Afghan Taliban and Al Qaeda aiding Pakistani Taliban’s insurgency” Bill Roggio, the Senior Fellow and Editor of FDD’s Long War established a relationship between Afghan Taliban and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). After almost two years of his research about rising militancy in Pakistan, the writer argues that, Taliban Government in Afghanistan and Al Qaeda provides all out assistance to TTP for undertaking terrorism and militancy in various parts of Pakistan. He writes; “Taliban, with the help of Al Qaeda, is directly sheltering, supporting, and training the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan or TTP) despite claims to the contrary.” This research is validated by the ground realities and clear evidences where TTP and some Afghan militant groups have attacked Pakistan in last two years, ever since Taliban took over Afghanistan. This research is recent, published on June 16, 2023 in FDD’s Long War Journal and based on sound evidences. Earlier on June 9, 2023, United Nations Security Council’s Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team, released a report that clearly establishes a relationship between Interim Taliban Government, Al Qaeda and TTP. UNSC Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team reveals; “The link between the Taliban and both Al Qaeda and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) remains strong and symbiotic”.
The report exposes; a number of militant and terrorist groups are operating in Afghnistan and Pakistan with greater flexibility under Afghan Taliban de facto Government. TTP and other militants have freedom of action in Afghan soil, increasing threat of terrorism for region especially Pakistan. “There are indications … that TTP is launching attacks into Pakistan with support from the Taliban, that groups of foreign terrorist fighters are projecting threat across Afghanistan’s borders.” With regards to terrorism there are serious developments, taking place in Afghanistan under Taliban Government. Indeed, Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) intensified its terrorist activities after Afghan Taliban established an interim government in Afghanistan in mid-August, 2021. The main objective of this intensified terrorist campaign against Pakistan was to force Government Pakistan to give them some concessions and areas for their own rule within the boundaries of Pakistan. Former FATA was the area; TTP has been looking forward for this type of set up in the first instance. Having achieved this concession they would have expanded their influence in other areas in a gradual process. In the first two decades of 21st century, Pakistan was deliberately kept vulnerable from the perspective of security as well as economically. So much so, that US and NATO forces tried to exploit the Pakistani vulnerabilities many a time from 2004 to 2021.
Nevertheless, Pakistani military remained alert against the nefarious designs of external forces and combated the well planned terrorism which was totally focused to gradually ruin Pakistan through direct and indirect strategies. A realistic analysis of the post 9/11 happenings would reveal that, for the strategic interest of external powers, Pakistani geopolitics was used which caused maximum damage to state and society of Pakistan. On its part, Pakistan supported and covered the draw-down of US and NATO forces in 2014/15 and later their withdrawal in August 2021. Indeed, Pakistan fought out the terrorism and combated terrorism for the greater cause of international and stability. Major Powers and international community on their part, did very little to compensate the losses, Pakistan suffered from 2001 to 2023. Pakistan brokered the deal between US and Taliban in February 2020. Nevertheless, Pakistan is the only country whose security situation has deteriorated after take-over of Afghanistan by Afghan Taliban.
This is despite the fact that, Taliban take-over of Afghanistan was made possible because of hectic Pakistani efforts. The process of NATO and US pull-out and Taliban take-over was quite peaceful. This indicates that grounds were prepared for Taliban by former invaders which made everything possible for them except overt financial support. Covertly the platform of UNHCR is being used by US for continued support of Afghan masses ever since August 2021.Russia and China alongside Pakistan were considered very close to Taliban, after their take-over of Kabul. Nevertheless, there came a mysterious silence and chill in their relationship with Taliban regime. Whereas, Pakistan provided huge humanitarian assistance to Taliban regime for the poor masses, others did very little considering Taliban still closer to their rival power. Russia-Ukraine war further complicated the Moscow-Kabul relationship while Beijing has its own priorities in the region as well as at the global level.
The terrorist activities of TTP, emanating from Afghan soil have killed hundreds of thousands of security forces personnel as well as the civilian population. In all these offensive actions, there is a clear involvement of Afghan Taliban. Such types of reactions speak of offensive gestures from Taliban and direct threat from a group which has neither international recognition nor ability to survive independently for a long. Such aggression and militancy was not seen by legal and elected Governments of Hamid Karazai and Asharif Ghani. Rather, despite presence of TTP elements in Afghanistan under RAW and NDS, there were very few attacks on Pakistani border posts from 2017 to 2021. There have been continuous terrorist attacks on the Pakistani border posts, manned by its security forces along Pak-Afghan borders. There is unremitting phenomenon of terrorist attacks either by TTP elements or other terrorist groups living on Afghan soil on daily bases. The abovementioned evidence based reports clearly indicate that, Afghan Taliban are sheltering and supporting TTP and its terrorist activities in Pakistan. Besides, “The relationship between the Afghan Taliban and TTP, like the Taliban’s relationship with Al Qaeda, is tightly bonded and unlikely to dissipate.” Indeed, Afghan Taliban Government does not consider “TTP as a threat to Afghanistan, rather as part of its emirate” and encourages its terrorist attacks against Pakistan. The Government of Pakistan must revised its current counter-terrorism strategy and devise a new strategy which is based on new ground realities to counter the evolving terrorist’s threats emanating from Afghan soil.
— The writer is Professor of Politics and IR at International Islamic University, Islamabad.
Email: drmkedu@gmail.com
