ACCORDING to the realists theory of international politics as explained in Morgenthau’s Politics Among Nations (1948), States exist within an anarchic international system in which they are ultimately dependent on their own capabilities, or power, to further their national interests. The most important national interest is the survival of the state, including its people, political system and territorial integrity. Hence the states try to gain maximum power to preserve their survival, where clash of interests can cause an aggressive state to attack a weaker state.
As per Britannica, the balance of power theory in international relations suggests that States may secure their survival by preventing any one state from gaining enough military power to dominate all others. In this regard, compared to their stronger adversaries, the weaker States can also enhance their power by pursuing a policy of balance of power in two ways: By increasing their own power; or by boosting their own power by embarking upon a policy of alliances.
After the break-up of the (former) Soviet Union in 1991, the balance of power system prevailing in the bipolar world, led by the US and the (then) Soviet Union, ended and the unipolar world system emerged with the US being the only superpower, which is still persisting although some major power are struggling to create a multipolar world. However, in this unipolar world, a nuclear power balance with Russia/China persists and power balancing against some regional threats is in the making.
For example, against perceived China threat to the East and South China threats to Japan and some South East Asian nations respectively over territorial disputes and over Taiwan’s unity with China dispute, the US has shored up its strength through alliances with Japan, South Korea, Philippine, Australia, India and some of its NATO allies. And, to support Ukraine against Russia in their ongoing war, the US is also ensuring the economic, military and diplomatic support of its NATO/EU allies and other friendly countries. Also, after its break up in 1971 because of the Indian aggression, whereas Pakistan has balanced out India’s nuclear capability by acquiring its own nuclear technology, it also continues to contest India’s increasing conventional weapons capability, despite its economic difficulties.
However, the Israel-Hamas war has badly exposed the non-existence of any semblance of balance of power in the Middle East between Israel, (being supported by the US/NATO powers) and the Arab countries in particular and the Muslim world in general. Because of that, the Arab/Muslim countries could not warn Israel of the possibility of severing their diplomatic contacts, imposing economic/trade blockade and even military confrontation, if it does not stop its too long un-proportional cruel response to Hamas’ initial attack/Palestinian civilians ongoing massacre/genocide (being carried out by bombarding/attacking their houses, hospitals, refugee camps, food/power storages, preventing the UN humanitarian aid in Gaza, killing above 12000 civilians, including 8000 children/women and injuring above 30000 civilians) and displacing 1.6 million Palestinians from Gaza.
Even Arab countries could not convince their ally, the US for stopping Israel’s genocide of the Palestine’s civilian population in Gaza, as the US was providing full diplomatic support and military backing to its more valuable ally, Israel. The Arab/Muslim world also could not exploit strong diplomatic support of Russia and China in favour of bringing a permanent cease-fire, as the world balance of diplomatic and military power, dominated by the western powers, had totally tilted towards supporting Israel. In view of the above discussed world/regional scenario and the cruel/inhuman and deceptive policies of the involved powers as seen in the Israel-Hamas war and the likely futuristic such like scenarios of undermining the sovereignty and integrity of some Muslim countries, by some powerful countries, it is now almost a strategic necessity that the Muslim countries get united by making an Islamic Union like the European Union (EU), to strengthen themselves by making collective policies and using their collective resources to become a powerful/influential arbiter in the world, to enable to tilt the world/regional balance of power in their favour, to work for peace and development and confront such aggressive/annihilating war-like situations to preserve the sovereignty and integrity of the victimized Muslim countries.
In the above context, the visualized Islamic Union should have a high-powered decision making body, diplomatic coordination council, trade coordination and facilitation body, research and development coordination office, joint technological research coordination office, joint economic/investment facilitation office, joint industrial development office, joint defence production coordination body and a joint military exercises planning/coordination committee and any other necessary joint office.
And as far as Pakistan is concerned it has to be careful of the possibility that the BJP ruled India might follow Israel’s brutal strategy to carry out the genocide of the Kashmiris and even the Indian Muslims to advance BJP’s Gharwapsi policy (of reconverting the Muslims and Christians to Hinduism) and India might involve Pakistan by blaming it for supporting terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir and in mainland India. Moreover, Pakistan has to be cognizant of the fact that, with the US/western powers clear tilt towards India, it might follow Israel’s strategy to weaken Pakistan’s internal unity, economy and conventional military capacity through intensifying its hybrid war and the ongoing sponsorship of terrorism and even by involving Pakistan into a limited war-like situation. Moreover, India will undermine Pakistan’s international support by becoming a permanent member of the UNSC, with the support of the US, UK, France and Russia, where China could also be induced not to oppose India’s bid for permanent membership of the UNSC.
Therefore to fail India’s such designs, whereas Pakistan should address its economic issues on a priority basis/resolutely, strengthen its internal political/social and provincial unity and pose a more potent threat to the foreign sponsored terrorists by acquiring modern drones technology to hit their hideouts with minimum collateral damage, it also needs to evolve and pursue a more dynamic/pragmatic foreign policy, to strengthen its relations with the US/western major powers and the Gulf/Muslim countries, build CPEC/trade based strong relations with Russia and further solidify its strategic partnership with China. Pakistan should also convince China, Russia, the US, UK and France, not to support India to become a permanent UNSC member till it implements UNSC resolutions on Kashmir. Above all, Pakistan should continue to boost its conventional and strategic military capabilities.
—The writer is also a former Research Fellow of IPRI and Senior Research Fellow of SVI Islamabad.
Email: hanifsardar@hotmail.com
views expressed are writer’s own.
