GEOSTRATEGICALLY, the Red Sea is the entry point for ships using the Suez Canal, which handles about 12% of global trade and vital for the movement of goods between Asia and Europe. There are growing concerns, the longer the Gaza war, the greater the risks for longer shipping disturbances thereby causing predictable dangers of destabilization of the economy in the region. In response to the escalating threats posed by Houthis in the Bab el-Mandab Strait (the key to the control of almost all shipping between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal), the US Government despite policy differences with its European allies, has announced the formation of a new alliance to secure navigation in the Red Sea.
US strategic goals: The Red Sea is a seawater inlet of the Indian Ocean, lying between Africa and Asia. The Pentagon characterizes Operation Prosperity Guardian as a defensive coalition involving over 20 nations, aimed at ensuring the unhindered flow of commerce through the vital shipping chokepoint in Red Sea waters off Yemen. The US and a host of other nations are creating a new force consisting of the UK, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain will join the US in the new mission, US Defence Secretary J. Austin recently announced. The objective of the US creating the Red Sea alliance is twofold: on the one hand, is testing whether its allies share the same beliefs with it on this issue. On the other hand, Washington is levering multilateral diplomatic actions to cover up its unilateral support of Israel.
On December 31,’’the naval battle occurred around 0330 GMT as the attackers sought to board the Singapore-flagged Maersk Hangzhou. Helicopters from the USS Eisenhower and USS Gravely joined the ship’s security team in repelling the attackers after receiving a distress call,’’ CENTCOM said. Both geopolitically and geo-economically, the Red Sea is a vital economic artery and is likely to become more so in the coming decades. In geopolitical terms, it should increasingly be seen as worthy of unified policy attention on its own, perhaps more so than the traditional and broad “Middle East” focus of American and European policy-makers. More than 10 percent of global trade passes through the Red Sea each year, crossing two of the 10 most strategic waterways in the world, the Bad al-Mandab at the sea’s southern entrance and Egypt’s Suez Canal in the north. A divided European thinking: Notably, three of America’s European partners or allies—France, Spain and Italy that were listed as contributors to Operation Prosperity Guardian—have shown a propensity to distance themselves from the maritime force. This move underscores growing concerns about military alliances in the Red Sea, a vital artery for global trade and a strategically significant corridor that is attracting increasing international attention and competition as there is presence of numerous naval forces and military bases in the Horn of Africa region.
Foreseeably, “European governments are very worried that part of their potential electorate will turn against them,” said David Hernandez, a professor of international relations at the Complutense University of Madrid, noting that the European public is increasingly critical of Israel and wary of being drawn into a conflict.’’ Denmark’s giant container firm Maersk said recently, it would resume shipping operations in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. But Germany’s Hapag Lloyd said Germany still believes the Red Sea is too dangerous and will continue to send ships around the Cape of Good Hope.
Geopolitical tussle: Given the interplay of multiple forces in the Red Sea region, there appears a vast scope of expanding tensions in the region as Iran has rejected US and British calls to end its support for attacks by Houthi rebels on Israeli-linked vessels in the Red Sea and claimed the accusations were baseless interference as its navy dispatched a destroyer to the vital shipping lane. A further boost to these tensions is manifested by the fact that the Iranian-backed Houthis, who are keen to send a message of support to Hamas in Gaza, rose to a new high last week when the US military said its helicopters had sank three Houthi vessels and killed 10 militants after a clash in the middle of the Red Sea, one of the world’s most important trade waterways.
While both the UK and the US are making direct strikes against Iran-backed Houthis, Tehran objects to these strikes by arguing that ‘’recent movements by the United States and the United Kingdom in the Red Sea threaten the security of the region.” Iran dispatched a warship to the Red Sea after the U.S. Navy destroyed three Houthi boats, a move that risks ratcheting up tensions and complicates Washington’s goal of securing a waterway that’s vital to global trade. Owing to the changing security situation because of Yemen’s Houtis, major shipping companies are taking the longer and costlier route around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope rather than through the Suez Canal.
And yet, Turkey and Qatar—closely allied in the struggle for regional supremacy with Saudi Arabia and the UAE-currently lack naval or other military facilities per se in the Red Sea region—these countries have deployed economic assistance and trade deals as a way to achieve influence with the Red Sea littoral states. All the while, Houthi militants have drastically ignored the US warnings about their repeated attacks on ships in the Red Sea, launching a naval drone on Jan 04 that came within “a couple of miles” of merchant ships and American combat vessels before detonating.
To conclude, the tapestry of regional power struggles—accompanied by the unstable politics of eastern African countries—largely bears the danger of heightened violent conflict and humanitarian crisis, already intensified because of the ongoing Gaza war, this situation can further up the ante in the geopolitics of the region. Amid the brewing maritime security tensions in the ME region, the DGPR said, The Pakistan Navy has deployed a guided missile PNS Tughril frigate(FFG-126) in the Gulf of Aden, as it will ensure safety and security of merchant vessels to and from the Pakistani ports. Moreover, to proactively enhance its maritime security, the Pakistan Navy has also deployed ships in the Arabian Sea.
—The writer, an independent ‘IR’ researcher-cum-international law analyst based in Pakistan, is member of European Consortium for Political Research Standing Group on IR, Critical Peace & Conflict Studies, also a member of Washington Foreign Law Society and European Society of International Law. He deals with the strategic and nuclear issues.
Email: rizvipeaceresearcher@gmail.com
views expressed are writer’s own.
