BY the time this article is published the coalition govt. of the PMLN and PPP as major partners and with Shehbaz Sharif in the driving seat would have been sworn in. This new grouping of two major political parties who have been bitter rivals in the past will face multiple challenges and an uphill task of sustaining their coalition for the next few years. Their collective effort will be to dismantle the PTI and be on the same page with the powerful establishment. The task of eliminating the PTI and keeping the establishment at bay will not be a walk in the park. Pakistan democracy is still in its early stages and all the democratic institutions are rather fragile and people have very little faith in the fairness of the state institutions especially after the result of rather controversial national elections.
Since the very dawn of independence our country has been saddled with the curse of dynastic politics and the present group of national leaders suffer from the same malice that is the curse of family dominated leadership while ignoring more competent and educated people in their own parties. The PPP and the PMLN have to get rid of this dynastic rule and listen to the voice of the younger generation to promote meritocracy in their parties. Democracy can only be promoted by encouraging younger leadership and inducting better educated people as members of our assemblies. More representation of people from all the provinces and different ethnicities is the need of the hour to promote unity, social cohesionand ethnic harmony and that is the very basis of our national constitution. Ironically today there not a single party with a popular base and vote bank in all the provinces of the country. The PPP is the party of Sindh and the PMLN rules the roost in Punjab so both parties need to work and take on the image of a national party and not a regional force. The new govt. will have to focus immediately on a number of international andnational issues. Number one in the agenda to focus on will be the economy, unemployment, price spiral, and high cost of living. The will have to bring down the cost of essential commodities especially food items, check the rising costs of gas and electricity and petroleum products. On the domestic front the growing menace and frequent attacks by the Taliban will need immediate attention. All the economic, social and political issues are interconnected and any weakness shown in addressing these issues will weaken the coalition govt. and create a serious threat for the nation. Weak economy and poor governance encourages militancy and results in an insurgency and this could result in the collapse of this weak coalition govt.
According to Madiha Afzal, Fellow at the Brookings Institution “The new coalition Govt. is likely to be weak and unstable, given that disagreements might emerge between the PMLN and PPP. It is likely to be deferential to the army, as it was during its first tenure. It presided over both a deteriorating security situation and an acute economic crisis for 16 months, which does not induce confidence for its next stint in power.” The PPP has also said it won’t take ministerial roles this time round and will back the prime minister “on an issue-to-issue basis,” raising fears that this coalition would be weaker than the last.If the PPP doesn’t take any ministries, analysts say the administration will effectively be a minority government, at a time when it will have its work cut out amid grave challenges ranging from an acute economic crisis to political instability and rising militancy.
The annual deficits have by now piled up to alarming levels and Pakistan’s economic woes are increasing by the day by the national debt reaching dangerous levels with no significant rise in revenues and this is creating a dangerous economic future for the next generation of the nation. Priority number one for the new Govt. will be to address and rectify the nation’s economic woes and this will be possible only and only by ensuring political instability and continuation of policies. The uncertain political situation and harsh economic conditions are forcing talented people to leave the country in search of greener pastures and this exodus of talent has to be stopped so that people with new ideas and talent are utilized for the benefit of the country. Any further increase in fuel and electricity prices will result in a severe backlash that the coalition could hardly afford.
The new Govt. can learn from the examples of countries like Singapore who rose from poverty to a standard of living better than most European countries. They should learn to spend in their human resource especially the younger generation. Spend more on improving its human capital and physical infrastructure. Focus on improving the literacy rates and investing heavily in building schools colleges and universities. Education has to be prioritized and state owned colleges and universities turned into centers of excellence. Pakistani youth look up to the US as the best destination for advanced studies in science and engineering disciplines and this should also be facilitated with the grant of scholarships and student loans to meet the cost of education abroad. There are several other avenues for strengthening the country’s economy. Pakistan offers the shortest and potentially the most economical conduit for trade between Afghanistan and the world, between the Middle East and China, and between Africa and China. Our leadership has been talking about it for long but so far, we have failed to fully exploit it. The incoming government should accord priority to expanding trade and seriously consider linking up with China’s recent moves to develop new trade routes to the Middle East and beyond. The PML-N and PPP leadership that will emerge after the formation of the recent election will be well disposed toward working with the US while maintaining strong economic and strategic ties with China. There is no contradiction in that, as the US and China while being rivals at the strategic level have strong economic linkages and substantial mutual trade.
—The writer is Professor of History, based in Islamabad.
Email: tariq.aqil@headstart.edu.pk
