ON Sunday, with a staggering support of National Democratic Alliance (NDA), Narendra Modi sworn in as India’s premier for a third term amid the raising concerns—exposed by latest election results — unveiling the truth that being positively turbocharged by Nehru ‘s secular and social philosophy–Indians have, by and large, rescinded Narendra Modi’s cradled fascist ideology of Hindutva. There is no second opinion in the belief that Modi’s Coalition Government will have to face a tough time by the Congress-backed groups of opposition in India’s Lok Sabha.
The BJP campaigned on an aim to win more than 400 seats – a strategy which could have given his coalition more than enough power to amend the constitution which requires a two-thirds majority or 362 seats. The verdict — unleashed by India’s elections-2024–marks a new heraldry for the Congress Party-led opposition alliance, thereby scoring a stunning comeback (defying earlier predictions of its decline, and sharply diverging from both exit polls and pre-election surveys) slowing the Modi juggernaut and pushing his Bharatiya Janata Party well below the majority mark. It’s unchartered territory for the populist prime minister, who needs the help of his allies to stay in power. That could significantly change his governance style after he enjoyed a commanding majority in Parliament for a decade.
Notably, more than 640 million people voted in a marathon seven-week election, hailed as a “world record” by election authorities. Nearly half of the voters were women. The opposition won a total of 232 seats out of 543, doubling its strength from the last election. The Congress, as per trends, is on course to win nearly 100 seats, marking this as its best performance at the Lok Sabha elections since 2014. Ten years ago, the Grand Old Party slumped to a measly 44 seats and then climbed to 52 in the 2019 polls. Moreover, the BJP lost its seats in three majority centres, Utter Pradesh, Maharashtra and Haryana. As for the BJP Government, it has had a history of taking all coalition partners with them, though in previous two terms they didn’t require their support, they will now need coalition partners’ support all the time.
Pathologically, Modi failed because his hate-politics promoted segregation and marginalization of minorities in India. Modi has failed because he transmitted and hyphenated Indian institutions with Hindutva doctrine, Modi has failed because of his utilitarian and hedonist slogans – “minimum government”, accompanied by ethnic diversities and identity. The BJP lost because its leadership did not have its ears to the ground. They believed that the issue of the Ram Temple would secure their victory, but they overlooked important issues like jobs and inflation,” said political analyst Amaranth Agarwal.
Needless to say, Modi’s fascist policies helped propel Congress’ Rahul Gandhi and its coalition partners to surprising victories in parliament and throughout the country. Needless to say, the ongoing ideological juxtaposition–aboding between politically indoctrinated centripetal forces of cohesion pluralism and multiculturalism embedded in Nehruvian legacy of a secular India —and the centrifugal forces imbibed in Modi’s Hindutva–espousing and sparking cultural and religious segregation/cultural ghettos. Today India is divided by reflecting two distinct visions–incorporated in the BJP’s narratives (pulling India towards a Hindu Raj at the core of Balkanizing of the Indian State as that of Yugoslavia) — manifested in Rahul’s agenda of cultural pluralism while showing positive concern for the rights of the Kashmiris as they once enjoyed under Kashmir special status.
Simply put the BJP’s decisions of revoking Article 370 and its denying of Kashmir special status in August 2019 led to a deterioration of its relationships with regional parties, such as the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the National Conference (NC), which had previously been allies. The loss of these regional partnerships may have contributed to the BJP’s decline in certain areas as it affected the party’s ability to mobilize local support and leverage existing political networks.
And yet, on the economic front, Government‘s sky -rocketing claims of boosting the Indian economy notwithstanding, this so-called impressive record will be eclipsed and short-lived by more mundane, thorny domestic economic concerns like inflation and unemployment, thereby ingraining serious anxieties in India’s middle and lower-middle classes—bearing the brunt of recent economic setbacks, particularly Modi’s agrarian policy.
Though the proponents of the BJP still claim that they want to preserve the Indian upheld legacy of India’s non-aligned foreign policy, yet New Delhi notion –of abstaining from the recently held UNGA vote regarding a ceasefire in Gaza is a clear endorsement of the fact that the BJP has been distancing itself from a non-aligned stance—thereby firmly affiliating India with the Israeli and American camps.
Ostensibly, Modi’s policies are in extreme contrast to the Nehruvian legacy of a secular India. Nehru’s policies had elevated India’s position both regionally and internationally. The CAA reveals its anti-Muslim character when considered in conjunction with another legislative initiative, the National Citizens Record, a nation-wide census aiming at establishing who is a rightful Indian citizen. NCR requests residents for evidence of being legally in India since 1971; a requirement particularly hard to comply in many areas of rural India, where the access to public records is extremely difficult.
Needless to say, India-Israel game of playing with the established norms of international law—clearly disallowing the Israeli-Indian moves –of occupation, annexation and the ultravires practices of redefining the disputed territories —are reflections on political hedonism, apartheid and settlers’ colonialism.
In this term, Narendra Modi must revisit –his unpopular domestic policies accompanied by anti- peace narratives by promoting an environment of peaceful neighbourhood in the most populous region—while initiating a peace dialogue with Pakistan, including a focus to reorient India’s relationships with the SAARC governments, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka to continue growing connectivity, commerce and other linkages in South Asia.
—The writer, an independent ‘IR’ researcher-cum-international law analyst based in Pakistan, is member of European Consortium for Political Research Standing Group on IR, Critical Peace & Conflict Studies, also a member of Washington Foreign Law Society and European Society of International Law. He deals with the strategic and nuclear issues.
(rizvipeaceresearcher@gmail.com)
