DESPITE its potential to spur economic growth and regional integration, CPEC also faces several challenges, including political and security risks, social and environmental impacts, and economic and financial viability. The surge in terrorist attacks against Chinese nationals pose challenges to the CPEC deal in the country. Pakistan’s chronic political and economic instability adds to the difficulties of maintaining substantial infrastructure projects. he next phase of the Project has already been inaugurated during the visit of Shahbaz Sharif to Beijing.
The first phase launched in 2015 focused on infrastructure and energy and now the second phase of CPEC will bring about more development on the 3000 kilometer long network connecting China with the Arabian Sea through Pakistan along with increasing agricultural production in the country. Unfortunately the fresh wave of militant attacks launched by the TTP and the BLA targeting Chinese workers and sites of strategic importance has now compelled the Chinese Govt. to go public and express its concerns about the lack of security in Pakistan “We ask Pakistan to take effective measures to protect the safety and security of Chinese nationals, institutions, and projects,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a recent statement, urging Chinese citizens and businesses to “take extra safety precautions” and “do their best to guard against terrorist attacks” in Pakistan. Beijing’s concerns have been expressed much more unequivocally in private.It is now an open secret that in meetings last. month between Pakistani government officials, Chinese Ambassador Jiang Zaidong, and Li Chunlin, vice chairman of China’s National Development Reform Commission, Beijing conveyed categorically that CPEC’s future is dependent on the safeguarding of Chinese nationals and investments. India has now come out openly against the progress of the CPEC project and the benefits to Pakistan. The recently concluded elections in India were witness to some bitter and acerbic statements about the Muslim community to influence Hindu voters and make them vote for the BJP.
Narendra Modi and the defense and foreign affairs ministers have also threatened to capture Azad Kashmir after Article 370 was abrogated and the independent nature of Jammu and Kashmir was done away with. India’s influence over the TTP is no secret and it is now openly stage managing an alliance between the TTP and the BLA to damage and sabotage the CPEC project that is so vital for the progress and prosperity of Pakistan.“There is understandable anger within the Chinese ranks over CPEC. They are neither happy with the lack of security, nor with the lack of progress on CPEC since 2018,” said a Planning Ministry official privy to the Joint Cooperation Committee meetings.
The reign of terror has returned to Pakistan since the Taliban victory in Afghanistan in August 2021.
In 2022 alone with about 973 casualties to terror attacks including the lives 545 officers and other ranks of the army Fueling this violence is a new and concerning alliance: a “terror troika” comprised of TTP, BLA and the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP), the regional affiliate of ISIS. Pakistan has complained and voiced its concerns repeatedly about the safe havens provided to the TTP on the soil of Afghanistan and has demanded again and again that the Taliban Govt. should rein in the TTP and stop them from launching cross border raids on Pakistan. The Pakistani Taliban in their media interviews have denied launching any attacks from the soil of Afghanistan but they have tacitly accepted the presence of their militant fighters in Pakistan.
The TTP commander Nasrullah AKA Maulvi Mansoor has ponted fingers at the Indian intelligence agency RAW for providing full support to the Afghan Taliban, the TTP and the BLA Majid Brigade group. Nasrullah was captured in an intelligence based operation by Pakistan’s law enforcement agencies.
This successful operation dismantled terror bases established jointly by the BLA Majeed Brigade and TTP Khawaraj factions. He previously belonged to Baitullah Mehsud’s group and fled to Afghanistan during Operation Zarb-i-Azab, a Pakistan Army campaign targeting militant strongholds. He also has a history of involvement in attacks on Pakistani security forces along the border regions. As the head of TTP’s Defense Commission, he controlled the financial and administrative operations of the group.
While local insecurity and politics have hindered the development of CPEC, a major stumbling block has also come from the United States and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which have dubbed the project a “debt trap” for Pakistan. U.S. legislators and government officials have long warned that they do not want to see IMF money used to repay loans Pakistan took from China. Islamabad is currently in talks with the IMF to finalise the next bailout package, as the Fund continues to keep Pakistan from the brink of bankruptcy. However, the vicious IMF cycle comes with conditions, including the recalibration of CPEC agreements.
—The writer is Professor of History, based in Islamabad.
Email: tariq.aqil@headstart.edu.pk
