IT appears that Joe Biden, in the twilight of his presidency, has played a high-stakes card by allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles supplied by the United States, NATO, and especially England. This move risks escalating the conflict into a direct confrontation with the United States. Are they prepared for such an eventuality? The answer seems to be no. This decision disregards Mr. Putin’s warning of inevitable retaliation. The war in Ukraine, now in its third year, has been a slow-moving conflict that has recently escalated due to Mr. Biden’s controversial decision to enable the firing of long-range missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads into Russian territory. History teaches us two key lessons about Russia: it does not forgive easily, and its response will be swift.
Unfortunately, Mr. Putin’s warnings have gone unheeded. Ukrainian President Zelensky remains in power as long as the war continues, but his decision to fire these long-range missiles into Russian territory, particularly the KK region, has backfired. Reports indicate that 90% of these missiles were intercepted and destroyed by Russia’s superior anti-missile systems, showcasing its advanced countermeasures. Hungary’s Social Democrats are leading in the elections and have openly expressed their support for Mr. Putin. Zelensky and the Western powers have once again miscalculated the resolve of the Russian Federation. In response, Russia has launched a massive offensive using its latest missile systems against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. This attack has left over a million Ukrainians without power as winter sets in.
Russia has further signaled its intention to deploy additional missile systems, including the Satan II, as per orders from President Putin. Against this backdrop, reports suggest that Germany is preparing for potential Russian aggression by implementing a bunker policy. Meanwhile, President Zelensky appears increasingly unsettled, with rumours of a possible coup against his regime gaining traction. There are indications he may be open to negotiating a ceasefire. On the other side, a figure reportedly favoured by Mr. Trump to mediate the Ukraine crisis and broker peace with Russia has proposed highly stringent conditions. It is worth recalling that nearly three years ago, at the outset of the conflict, a near-agreement between Russia and Ukraine was brokered in Belarus but was derailed by then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has issued a stark warning to the West, stating that the Russian Federation will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons against the United States if its security is threatened. This has further strained US-Russia relations at a time when Mr. Trump is poised to potentially assume office in January. It is hoped that efforts to escalate tensions between the two superpowers will ultimately fail.
Russian military leadership is quite satisfied with the progress being made on all the fronts in their offensive against Ukraine. On the other hand, Mr Zelensky has indicated the paucity of the troops. The tiredness setting in a prolonged war, fatigue and paucity of equipment is impacting the military operations. Germany and number of NATO countries have indicated they are not in a position to chip in further military hardware. All indications are, with the swearing in of Mr Trump there is going to be a substantial progress towards ceasefire, towards the policy and direction of war in Ukraine. Also, it is being debated in the various corridors of power what will be the state and substance of aid to Ukraine. Naturally NATO powers are anxious to know. There will be a major reset of policy in Europe. The cessation of hostilities and war in Ukraine is going to impact the global policy with strategic, economic impact as well and most importantly the relationship between China and Russia in the context of defence policy. It is assumed there will be a major reset in their policies in case of any reproachment between US and Russia during Trump presidency. A convergence is possible on mutual bilateral and global issues.
Nevertheless, there should be no doubt that de-dollarization policy will continue to be implemented by Russia and China as part of BRICS as both want to get out of the economic hold of dollar. Sanctions created immense difficulties for Russia after the commencement of the Ukraine war, and declaring China target of huge tariffs and duties, especially on electronic vehicles and other equipment. In case of cessation of hostilities massive reconstruction effort is required not only Ukraine, but also in Gaza and Lebanon. What impact such huge demand on goods and services will make globally? The issue is point of concern for experts.
The battle in Gaza is still ravaging by Mr Netanyahu. US think tanks are worried ,if Russian principle to respond where US equipment is used , as in Ukraine, other warring parties in ME can hit US targets. The use of ICBMs has opened the door. Most of US’s assets are sea based and vulnerable. Further there could not be an unending supply of weapons, especially high-tech( Jack Sullivan).De-dollarization is also going to weaken the economic hold of United States. It is expected within few years world will have to deal with parallel financial systems. The US Dollar and the other erected on the BRICS currency. The trade in local currencies based on coins earned, already introduced in Russia, is also going to flourish. Thus, a parallel financial system.
On the other hand, United States CIA assisted missile attack on Syria by rebels is a surprise move. They captured part of the city of Adlib. It has prompted Syria and Russia to counter attack in strength and are continuing. The rebel held areas are targeted massively. War in the area is still going on. Iran has announced to keep its military advisors in Syria. It translates, in strategic terms Iran and US confrontation. Similarly, Turkiye took actions on PKK rebels. Is the war in the region is being escalated? Is USA establishment in search of new theatre? Is it an effort to open another front in ME? This is anti- thesis to incoming US president Mr. Trumps policy vision. Do the powerful deep estate going to present him a feat accomplice. A growing challenge is going to be supply chain, rising logistic costs and the shortage of the shipping in the wake of reconstructions in ME and Ukraine. It will affect the freight and the insurance, eventually causing inflation in the recipient countries that are dependent on imports. Pakistan is no exception. Pakistan’s geography attracts strategic players. There will be little choice. It will be over and above Pakistan’s own internal issues.
—The author is a Brigadier Retired, a decorated officer with 32 years of active combat experience, 30 years in corporate sector as MD/COO. A column writer, Researcher and TV analyst.
(tariqkhalil21@gmail.com)
