BEYOND mere commodities, natural resources are fundamental to a nation’s lifeblood, supporting its economy, people and technological innovation. Nevertheless, their limited availability has ignited disputes and fierce competition among nations. The intense global competition for these crucial resources poses a significant risk to worldwide peace and stability. Abundant resources are a gift from nature to humanity. Water is the most important of them all. Human survival, agriculture and industry depend on water, a resource dwindling due to climate change, population growth and overuse. Limited freshwater fuels rivalry between nations, heightening tensions, especially across international river and aquifer boundaries.
Water scarcity is endemic in the Middle East, making the Jordan River Basin a major point of conflict. For decades, the shared basin of Israel, Jordan, Syria and Palestine has been a source of conflict. The Nile River conflict in Africa perfectly illustrates the problems of water disputes. The construction of the GERD by Ethiopia is causing tension with Egypt, whose water supply is more than 90% dependent on the Nile River. Even with the African Union’s mediation, a long-term settlement remains elusive.
The highly successful Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, governing water distribution in South Asia, is currently strained. Rising nationalism coupled with water scarcity could escalate this disagreement into a major conflict. By 2035, Himalayan glacier melt and erratic monsoons are expected to worsen regional water shortages, according to UNESCO. Steven Solomon in his book “Water: The Epic Struggle for Wealth, Power and Civilization” highlight how water has shaped civilizations and how its scarcity could lead to future wars. The author warns of a looming “water war era” unless nations adopt sustainable water management practices.
On the flip side, oil is the next natural resource rapidly dwindling. Global economic growth and industrialization still heavily rely on oil, making it the most sought-after resource. However, conflicts, mainly in the Middle East, have stemmed from the competition for oil reserves. Proxy wars, revolutions and foreign interventions have plagued the region, which possesses over 48% of the world’s proven oil reserves. Syria’s conflict clearly shows how oil shapes international relations. ISIS’s seizure of oil fields during the civil war fuelled its operations and worsened regional instability. Intervention by global powers such as the United States and Russia served both counter-terrorism and energy interests.
The 2003 Iraq War, frequently called a “war for oil,” demonstrates the influence of energy security on international relations. Contrary to claims of promoting democracy, analysts in Michael T. Klare’s “Blood and Oil” suggest the war’s real cause was Iraq’s strategically vital oil reserves. The Middle East isn’t the only region involved in oil politics. Venezuela, a major oil reserve holder globally, has seen its political instability and international sanctions impact global oil markets. Fossil fuel reliance emphasizes the urgent requirement to transition to renewable energy sources, thus lessening geopolitical risks associated with oil.
Besides, the South China Sea, a region brimming with oil, natural gas and fish, has become a major geopolitical conflict zone. Neighbouring countries like Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia are in conflict with China due to its expansive territorial claims, symbolized by the Nine-Dash Line. About 30% of global maritime trade uses the sea as a crucial trade route. China’s island-building and military expansion in the region are seen by the U.S. as violating international norms, prompting harsh criticism. Tensions between the US and China in the South China Sea have increased due to US FONOPs, a direct reaction to China’s activities. In response to China’s strength, a four-nation alliance—the Quad—was established by the US, Japan, India and Australia. However, due to complex historical claims, as detailed in Bill Hayton’s “The South China Sea: The Struggle for Power in Asia”, a swift resolution is improbable.
More than just water, oil and maritime zones are included in the global competition for natural resources. Disagreements also extend to rare earth elements, vital for modern technologies. China’s control of over 60% of global rare earth production has been a bargaining chip in trade conflicts. While the US and EU ramp up investment in alternatives to lessen China’s influence, this rivalry might fuel further geopolitical instability. Resource scarcity, worsened by climate change, endangers food security and livelihoods. Desertification and water scarcity in sub-Saharan Africa have triggered mass migrations, exacerbating ethnic tensions and instability. Climate change-caused resource scarcity is a mounting threat to global security, as Gwynne Dyer points out in his book “The Climate Wars.”
The resource scarcity crisis demands a multifaceted solution. Sustainable development, renewable energy investment and advanced resource management technologies are national priorities. Working together internationally is also essential. International accords, including the Paris Climate Accord and regional water agreements, need reinforcement for equitable resource distribution. Global bodies like the UN need to take the lead in resolving conflicts and encouraging cooperation. According to Kate Raworth’s “Doughnut Economics,” we should move from growth-based economies to sustainable ones.
The competition for natural resources highlights humanity’s reliance on limited resources, demanding sustainable practices and collaborative governance. Water, oil and strategic territories are now major sources of global geopolitical tension, jeopardizing peace and stability. Yet, innovation, diplomacy and shared responsibility have historically mitigated resource conflicts. According to Jared Diamond’s “Collapse”, resource overuse frequently led to societal collapse. For history not to repeat, collective action by nations is needed to address resource scarcity. Through sustainability and international cooperation, these challenges can become opportunities for a peaceful and prosperous future. We must act now; otherwise, competition for resources will escalate into a disastrous war.
—The writer is an educationist and a Commoner from 44th Common, based in Sargodha.
(waqarhassancsp@gmail.com)
