China’s mega development projects, namely the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its flagship CPEC, witnessed both progress and setbacks in 2024. These developments highlighted the global spillover socio-economic, geopolitical and geostrategic ramifications of Western powers persistently implementing decoupling and delinking notions, political hyping, media smearing, unilateral economic, business, investment and technological sanctions, alongside the ongoing theory of China’s economic collapse.
Moreover, ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Israel-Palestine war extended to Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iran have slowed down pace of the BRI in the greater Eurasian region and Middle East. On the other hand, CPEC development witnessed a snail pace because of severe terrorism in the country putting the Chinese workers and projects under constant threats, especially in Balochistan, Gwadar, KP and many other parts of the country. It was further aggravated by political instability, social disharmony and widening disagreement among the important organs of the state conveying confusing signals to international community and investors alike.
Only one mega project of hydropower namely the Suki Kinari was completed on September 13, 2024. The project is an 884-megawatt hydropower station located on the Kunhar River in the Mansehra district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in Pakistan. Moreover, the virtual inauguration of the Gwadar Airport did not portray the real strategic scope, utility and importance and its frequently changing dates of complete operationalization became a laughing stock in the international media.
Most recently Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif termed the New Gwadar International Airport as a shining symbol of the great friendship between China and Pakistan but again it has been eclipsed by changing its operations. However, now it is decided to start its flight operations on January 10, 2025.
It is true that the CPEC has entered into its second phase during 2024, projecting valuable contribution in terms of economic stability, industrial sustainability, qualitative infrastructure development, elimination of poverty, generation of new jobs, further development of the renewables (wind, solar) and, last but not the least, community and social development in different parts of the country.
However, it has not yet been accelerated and commenced because of widening gaps on sensitive issues of the safety and security of the Chinese workers and the protection of CPEC projects in the country. Despite close liaison at the highest level from both sides, still no concrete capacity building mechanism, joint operation or hybrid security system eradicating menace of terrorism in the country keeping the Chinese investors and businessmen at bay from the country.
Indecisiveness on rail modernization and transformation under ML-1 was one of the biggest setbacks to the country’s logistics and integrated transport system. It preyed on political whims & wishes, bureaucratic hurdles, professional incompetency of various ministries and, notably, lack of financial arrangements because of the direct pressure from the IMF and the World Bank along with hidden diplomatic displeasures during 2024.
It is pertinent to mention that the total installed capacity of the 14 energy projects under CPEC have been operationalized which accounts for about 1/5 of the total installed power capacity of Pakistan. The units of the SK Hydropower Station have been connected to the grid to generate electricity which has become a value addition.
According to many published reports and official data, China had invested US$25.4 billion in direct projects in Pakistan, creating 236,000 jobs, generating 8,000 megawatts of electricity, and building 510 kilometers of highways and 886 km of the national electricity grid. Also, about 28,000 Pakistani students were studying in China and more than 20,000 Pakistanis were learning Chinese.
It augurs well that China has continued to advance mutually beneficial initiatives, particularly the BRI and the expansion of the BRICS group, as key tools for promoting global stability and peace in the world connecting Asia, Central Asia, Africa, Europe and even Latin America during 2024 fostering economic cooperation, reducing inequality, and encouraging mutual understanding, all of which contribute to a more peaceful world order.
In 2024, the BRI invested in critical infrastructure projects such as roads, railways, ports and energy networks, it has brought more job opportunities and a vast market to regional countries. Hopefully, it will help reduce the economic disparities that often fuel political instability and conflict. Malaysia’s East Coast Railway Link (ECRL) as a landmark BRI project jointly built by China and Malaysia created 18,000 jobs in Malaysia and neighboring countries and has cooperated with over 1,900 local companies. Additionally, during 2024 the overseas economic and trade cooperation zones built under the BRI had created more than 530,000. It has also completed over 3,000 projects within the last ten years.
The inauguration of the Chancay Port project Peru Lima is a collaborative project between China and Peru under the BRI. It is positioned as Peru’s gateway port and regional hub, connected by a tunnel to the Pan-American Highway, directly linking it to its capital enabling goods to conveniently reach Peru and other Latin American countries, significantly enhancing trade efficiency. Moreover, the most recently held commencement ceremony for the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway highlighted the railway’s potential to promote regional connectivity and prosperity. It will certainly reshape regional logistics, bringing significant economic benefits.
According to the current progress of the project, the construction of the Kyrgyz section of the railway project is scheduled to begin in July 2025 and last for six years. The infrastructure will open opportunities for logistics, product processing and export-oriented production and will drive change, fostering economic growth and social stability in the region linking China with European and Middle Eastern markets, facilitating freight transport.
The author expresses concern that the emergence of Trumponomics 2.0 may pose challenges for both the BRI and CPEC, necessitating a reassessment and development of a comprehensive roadmap for 2025 and beyond. The rapidly shifting geopolitical and military dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in the South China Sea, are seen as potential threats to the progress, productivity and stability of these projects. Additionally, a resurgence of terrorism in regions such as Balochistan, KP, Southern Punjab and metropolitan cities could further delay the advancement of CPEC 2.0.
The Ministry of Planning and Special Initiatives has also struggled to gain traction in key sectors of CPEC Phase 2.0, including the Growth Corridor, Livelihood-Enhancing Corridor, Innovation Corridor, Green Corridor and the Opening-Up/Regional Connectivity Corridor. The author advocates for the creation of a comprehensive Safety & Security Corridor, focusing on Anti-Terrorism cooperation, to ensure mutual benefit for both countries and the successful implementation of these projects. Joint policing, information sharing and the integration of Artificial Intelligence in security measures are deemed essential.
In conclusion, the author emphasizes that the success of both the BRI and CPEC is directly tied to regional peace and stability, urging prompt, coordinated efforts to overcome political obstacles and achieve lasting progress. (mehmoodulhassankhan7@gmail.com)
