“The Pahalgam attack signals a deeper strategy, urging Pakistan to reassess its internal stability and global diplomacy before another critical national interest is compromised under the guise of routine events.”
UNTIL 22 April 2025 no Indian citizen imagined that their State (India) could be so hard and cruel to kill its own citizens for the attainment of its ill-conceived goals.
The Pahalgam attack should not be seen simply as a terrorist activity; rather it is strategically conceived, highly concealed and exceptionally well executed operation by India to target Pakistan on multiple grounds.
The most significant objective, Indian BJP Government has conceived to achieve from this Indian state sponsored terrorist act at Pahalgam area of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) was to unilaterally suspend the Indus Water Treaty-1960.
This is the initial step towards abrogation of IWT-1960.
This was the first decision taken by Indian Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) on April 23, 2025.
All other decisions, Indian CCS has announced are just figurative and cosmetic measures, having no meanings on the long-terms.
The real objective is the IWT-1960 where Indian BJP has already taken a decision to abrogate it.
Indeed, with respect to Pakistan, Indian BJP Government had conceived three clear goals; a) Internally destabilize Pakistan through India-sponsored terrorists organizations and externally defame it to make it incredible state globally, b) Abrogation of Article 370 and Article 35A of Indian Constitution and annex IIOJK with Indian Union, which it completed illegally in August 2019.
Pulwama Attack of February 14, 2019 provided an excuse and precursor for this unilateral and illegal act, c) Abrogation of Indus Water Treaty-1960, which India needed a pretext like Pahalgam attack.
Homework for the implementation of these three strategies was done much earlier, nevertheless, all done systematically and in phases.
While efforts to destabilize and defame Pakistan began immediately after Modi assumed office as Prime Minister in 2014, the remaining two objectives required more serious grounds, a favourable global climate and sympathetic leaders like Donald Trump.
Trump, Netanyahu and Modi share a political chemistry and similar sentiments toward Islam and Muslims.
Unfortunately, all three enjoy close alliances with much of the Middle Eastern leadership.
Regarding India’s efforts to unilaterally abrogate or suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960, there has been a consistent pattern.
In recent years, India has repeatedly pressured Pakistan to renegotiate the treaty.
India has sought to review and modify the IWT, whereas Pakistan has insisted on its implementation in letter and spirit.
In 2024, India even halted meetings of the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC).
“There will be no more meetings of the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) till the governments of India and Pakistan meet and discuss the renegotiation of the 65-years-old Indus Water Treaty.
” Since January 2023, India has formally written four letters to Pakistan for initiation of the talks over IWT.
In 2024, New Delhi asked Islamabad for “review and modification” in the treaty.
In the latest letter, India asks for the negotiations as per Article XII (3) of the IWT-1960; renegotiating the water-sharing agreement, owing to the fundamental changes in the geopolitical and environmental landscape ever since the treaty was concluded in 1960.
In response to Indian letter, Pakistan has shown its willingness to discuss issues concerning the IWT with India.
Nevertheless, these discussions and negotiations will be held within the existing framework of the IWT which are unacceptable to India.
It is worth mentioning that India has always been manipulating the water of three western rivers whose water is exclusively meant for Pakistan.
It’s only in her latest move, India has demanded from Pakistan to re-negotiate the Indus Water Treat-1960; a step towards further concessions for India.
In the Indian official communiqué of 2022/23, India demanded Pakistan, “to enter into inter-governmental negotiations within 90 days to rectify the material breach of IWT.
This process would also update IWT to incorporate the lessons learned over the last 62 years.
” India has also asked World Bank, the guarantor of IWT-1960 for the re-negotiation and modifications over the treaty.
On its part, the World Bank has allowed two separate proceedings to address the concerns of both India and Pakistan.
As per the spokesperson of the World Bank, any lack of success in finding an acceptable solution, despite the best efforts by all parties involved over the past years would risk the IWT-1960.
In yhe last two decades, Pakistan emphasized UN and World Bank to play their roles towards implementation of the Indus Water Treaty-1960 in letter and spirit.
The implementation mechanism of IWT has been under serious criticism ever since India started manipulating the water of three western rivers whose water is exclusively meant for Pakistan.
Indeed, India has always interpreted the treaty for its own benefit and constructed water related facilities all along the western rivers which go against the essence of IWT-1960.
Pakistan’s permanent representative to UN, demanded world body that despite many rounds of talks over IWT-1960, India has violated the treaty which seriously affects availability of water for its agriculture as well as drinking water requirements.
Pakistan has one of the largest irrigation systems in the world and “most of its freshwater resources are trans-boundary and therefore needed to be managed in a cooperative manner”.
In first two-decades of 21st Century, India successfully constructed three major dams along western rivers in violation of IWT-1960.
The Pahalgam attack must be analyzed in the perspective of IWT-1960, a repeat of the abrogation of special status of IIOJK and its annexation into Indian Union.
It is time that Pakistan must take a serious retrospection of its internal political situation, its world-wide political and diplomatic engagements for safeguarding its national interests and sovereignty of the state, before it is too late.
The most significant aspect Pakistani leadership must comprehend that there should be no visit of any capital to bring another World-Cup like, July 25, 2019.
“Today I felt not as if I have returned from a foreign trip, but as if I have returned after winning the [cricket] World Cup”.
A week after this high-level visit of Pakistani leadership, India annexed IIOJK into its union!
— The writer is Professor of Politics and IR at International Islamic University, Islamabad. (drmkedu@gmail.com)
