THE Pahalgam attack in India-occupied Jammu & Kashmir quickly became a catalyst for political escalation, as India, without presenting credible evidence, accused Pakistan of involvement.
Seizing the moment, India threatened to unilaterally suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, a dangerous move with implications far beyond the immediate incident.
For over six decades, the Indus Waters Treaty has remained a rare beacon of cooperation in the tumultuous relationship between India and Pakistan.
Signed in 1960 under the auspices of the World Bank, it has survived wars, cross-border skirmishes and diplomatic standoffs.
The treaty’s durability lies in its apolitical nature, a recognition that access to water, especially in agrarian economies like Pakistan’s, must be insulated from the volatility of bilateral tensions.
India’s threat to suspend or undermine the treaty, therefore, is not only unprecedented but also dangerous, suggesting a willingness to use water as a weapon of statecraft.
International law clearly backs Pakistan’s stance.
The Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties upholds that agreements must be honoured in good faith, allowing suspension only under limited conditions, mutual consent, a treaty clause, or a proven material breach.
The Indus Waters Treaty meets none of these.
Pakistan has violated no terms and India has made no formal allegation.
Any unilateral suspension by India would violate international law.
Calling India’s move a temporary abeyance does not alter its legal reality, international law judges actions by their effect, not their label.
Crucially, India bypassed formal consultation with Pakistan, violating both the Indus Waters Treaty and diplomatic norms.
This underscores the political motives behind the move.
Moreover, linking treaty obligations to unproven terrorism claims breaches the core principle of good faith, vital to treaty stability.
By conflating water-sharing with unrelated security issues, India engages in an abuse of rights, a tactic deemed illegitimate in international law when pursued for coercive or politically motivated purposes rather than legal justification.
Pakistan’s concerns are not speculative or exaggerated, they are existential.
Over 80% of Pakistan’s irrigation water originates from the Indus Basin.
The river system is the backbone of the country’s agricultural sector, which in turn sustains food security, supports tens of millions of livelihoods and drives export earnings.
Any disruption in water flows caused by Indian manipulation of upstream sources would inflict severe damage: plunging crop yields, surging food prices, accelerating rural poverty and sparking potential unrest in already water-stressed provinces like Punjab and Sindh.
In security terms, weaponizing water is tantamount to an act of aggression, one that could justifiably be regarded as a casus belli.
Despite the seriousness of the threat, Pakistan has responded with restraint and responsibility, opting for legal and diplomatic avenues over military escalation.
This approach reflects a firm commitment to peace, international law and regional stability, standing in sharp contrast to India’s provocative stance.
Pakistan’s response should be threefold.
First, it must activate the dispute-resolution mechanisms under Article IX of the Indus Waters Treaty, beginning with neutral experts and potentially leading to a Court of Arbitration.
This ensures the matter remains within a legal framework and compels India to justify its actions before impartial adjudicators.
Second, Pakistan should take the issue to the United Nations.
Under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, the Security Council can act to prevent threats to peace.
Given the involvement of two nuclear-armed states and the vital nature of water resources, the case for UN intervention is strong.
Provisional measures could be sought to maintain uninterrupted water flows during proceedings.
Third, Pakistan must intensify diplomatic efforts, particularly with UN Security Council members, highlighting the broader risks of undermining a treaty long viewed as a model for global water-sharing agreements.
India’s current posture reveals a troubling trend of holding rivers hostage, where shared natural resources are used as tools for political leverage.
At a time when climate change is exacerbating global freshwater scarcity, this kind of zero-sum thinking is profoundly irresponsible.
The Indus Waters Treaty has long been hailed as a model for cooperation between adversaries over shared resources.
Undermining it now, in pursuit of short-term political gains, would not only destabilize South Asia but also threaten the integrity of transboundary water governance worldwide.
From Africa’s Nile to Central Asia’s Syr Darya, river-sharing arrangements are often fragile, reliant on trust and legal commitment.
If India, the world’s most populous democracy and an aspiring global power, demonstrates that it is willing to tear up a treaty for political theatre, it will send a dangerous message to the rest of the world: that treaties can be broken with impunity.
Ultimately, the choice lies with India.
It can either reaffirm its commitment to a treaty that has stood the test of time, preserved a measure of peace in a volatile region and upheld its image as a responsible global actor, or it can proceed with an unlawful and reckless course that risks triggering a regional crisis.
The consequences of the latter will not be confined to diplomatic circles; they will be felt in the fields of Sindh and the orchards of Punjab, where farmers will bear the cost of decisions made in distant ministries.
Pakistan has made its position clear, it stands ready to defend its rights, but it prefers resolution through law and diplomacy.
This restraint must not be misinterpreted as weakness.
Rather, it reflects a mature and principled stance grounded in international law and the collective interest of the global community.
The Indus Waters Treaty must not become another casualty of regional rivalry.
Water, the most essential element of life, must never be weaponized.
—The writer is PhD in Political Science, and visiting faculty at QAU Islamabad. (zafarkhansafdar@yahoo.com)
