THE Indus Waters Treaty was established between Pakistan and India in 1960 with the mediation of the World Bank to ensure the distribution of river waters between the two countries.
However, this treaty soon fell victim to the traditional stubbornness and cunning of the Hindu merchant class. Under the agreement, India secured control over three rivers and is now committing water terrorism to seize the remaining ones. The incident in Pahalgam on April 22 is part of this nefarious series. After that heinous attack, the Modi Government began weaponizing water by suspending the treaty. India has consistently deviated from the spirit of the agreement—whether in the case of the Baglihar Dam or Kishanganga—using aggressive diplomacy to undermine it. In essence, the treaty has become a noose around Pakistan’s neck. While India continues to violate the accord, Pakistan abides by it, risking barrenness and desolation. The cunning and brutality of the Hindu merchant class have now reached dangerous levels, deploying both legitimate and illicit tactics to render Pakistan drought-stricken and destabilized through calculated water aggression.
The construction of hundreds of dams at the sources of Pakistani rivers in occupied Jammu & Kashmir, along with plans to build 22 dams on the Chenab River to deprive Pakistan of western waters, clearly falls under water terrorism. The rapid development of hydropower projects in the disputed regions of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh—such as Neemo Bazgo and Chutak—has already crossed the boundaries of the treaty. Pakistan’s stance remains clear and justified: any obstruction or interference in the supply of water will be considered a declaration of war. In this context, the role of Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir is of utmost importance and sagacity. Under his leadership, the water issue has been linked to national defence, foreign policy and diplomatic pressure. He has sent a clear message to India not to attempt blocking water supplies, as water is Pakistan’s red line. The World Bank has also affirmed that India cannot unilaterally suspend or alter the treaty. Meanwhile, Pakistan has written four letters to New Delhi seeking restoration of the treaty. India’s demand for anti-terror actions as a precondition is nothing short of bullying.
As an agricultural country, Pakistan’s crop cultivation largely depends on the flow of water from rivers, making the Indus Waters Treaty quite significant for Pakistan. Under this treaty, a total of 168 million acre-feet of water flowing annually from the Indus Basin is distributed between Pakistan and India, whereby Pakistan has recognized rights to 80 percent of the three western rivers—Indus, Jhelum and Chenab—amounting to 133 million acre-feet, while India has control over the eastern rivers such as Ravi, Beas and Sutlej. Since several of the western rivers originate in India-occupied Jammu & Kashmir, India was also allowed to store 3.6 million acre-feet of water and use it to a limited extent for irrigation and power generation. However, India has started using this provision of the treaty for water aggression against Pakistan. Due to Indian stubbornness over the past three years, meetings between the Indus Water Commissioners of Pakistan and India have not taken place, with the last meeting occurring on May 30 and 31 in 2022 in New Delhi. According to the Indus Waters Treaty, such meetings should occur at least once a year.
India’s encroachment on the flow of rivers allocated to Pakistan poses a clear water aggression and a serious threat to peace and stability. Following the Pahalgam attack, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi instructed to accelerate work on new projects on the Chenab, Jhelum and Indus rivers. According to the Indus Waters Treaty, these three rivers are part of Pakistan. These projects include the expansion of the Ranbir Canal which is being considered to increase from 60 kilometers to 120 kilometers. This expansion would allow India to extract 150 cubic meters of water from the Chenab River instead of the current 40 cubic meters. The Modi Government has planned to connect the Indus River with the Ravi and Beas rivers, redirecting water towards every barrage in Punjab through the Sutlej River. The mega canal is expected to be nearly 200 kilometers long, with 12 large tunnels to be constructed.
There is no doubt that pro-India factions are involved in organized schemes to make all national water projects—from Kala Bagh to Diamer-Bhasha Dam—controversial in collaboration with India. If it were up to our eternal enemy, not a drop of water would flow towards Pakistan. India’s history of water aggression is well-known—from controlling Bhutan’s water under energy projects to triggering annual floods in Bangladesh and now launching hydropower projects in Siachen. The Modi Government’s aggressive stance, in defiance of international laws, threatens devastation across South Asia. It is imperative that Pakistan immediately invoke Article IX of the Indus Waters Treaty for dispute resolution and take this legal battle to the International Court of Justice.
Domestically, effective water diplomacy and institutional preparedness are crucial. Projects like Diamer-Bhasha and Mohmand dams must be expedited and irrigation efficiency improved through smart canal monitoring, water course lining and agro-tech policies. Public awareness is vital, as water terrorism now threatens agriculture and ecosystems. Just as we reject nuclear blackmail, hydrological blackmail is unacceptable. Diplomatically, Pakistan must spearhead a global alliance of water-stressed nations. Without resolving the Jammu & Kashmir issue and honouring the Indus Waters Treaty, lasting peace in South Asia is impossible. Silence now will make the world complicit in the coming disaster.
—The writer is Chairman, Tehrik Jawanan Pakistan.
(abdullahhamidgul1@gmail.com)
