NOW that Iran and Israel have apparently agreed to a ceasefire as declared by President Donald Trump, the situation remains fluid in the war theatre.
The ceasefire has come in the wake of Iran’s attacks on US bases in Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq and Kuwait—an alarming expansion of the war zone. It would be prudent to step back, analyze the broader developments and consider how the conflict might unfold in the short, medium and long term.
Short-term: Fragile ceasefire and strategic manoeuvring: In the immediate aftermath of the ceasefire, both Iran and Israel are likely to regroup, assess their damages and reorient their strategies. Iran may present its missile retaliation as a victory narrative domestically, while Israel might use the pause to strengthen air defence systems and consult allies. However, with mutual mistrust running deep, any minor provocation or miscalculation could trigger renewed hostilities.
Medium-term: Proxy war and diplomatic overtures: If direct war remains off the table, both parties may revert to the use of proxies. Hezbollah, Iraqi militias and the Houthis could carry out operations against Israeli or Western interests. Meanwhile, countries like Turkey, Qatar and China may push for diplomatic normalization to prevent wider regional destabilization. Cyber warfare and disinformation campaigns are also expected to intensify during this phase.
Long-term: Regional realignment or protracted stalemate: In the longer term, the Iran-Israel conflict could reshape Middle Eastern geopolitics. Israel may push harder for regime change in Iran using covert support to opposition groups. Iran, in turn, may forge deeper ties with China and Russia, seeking strategic guarantees. Alternatively, the war may settle into a long, cold standoff marked by intermittent flare-ups and no formal peace.
Global impact: Oil, markets and world order: The war and its spillover effects have already rattled oil markets. A renewed blockade or instability in the Gulf could further damage global supply chains. Any prolonged conflict risks drawing in major powers, potentially rewriting international alliances and rebalancing the global order. Media and perception: The other battlefield: Narratives around the war will shape global opinion and policy. While Western media largely frames Israel as defending itself from a nuclear threat, media in the Muslim world, especially Al Jazeera and Pakistani outlets, view it as an act of aggression aimed at regime change. This battle for hearts and minds is as influential as the one fought with missiles.
Conclusion: Though the guns may fall silent for now, the Iran-Israel conflict remains a volatile and unresolved crisis. Its evolution will depend on diplomatic acumen, regional power plays, global economic reactions and the way the media continues to shape international perceptions. In such a high-stakes scenario, even a fragile ceasefire is only a pause—never a full stop.
—The writer is a senior media academic, former Dean of Mass Communication at Beaconhouse National University and University of Central Punjab, and currently a Professor at the University of Central Punjab.
(drtaimoorulhassan@gmail.com)
