Syed Qamar Afzal Rizvi
THE widespread nature of the failures of the US amid the coronavirus has exposed a deeper decline in the US’ general effectiveness as a global power. How recent that decline is, what its causes are and whether it can be reversed are all difficult but important questions. One possibility emerges that today Washington is burdened with outdated 18th-century institutions. Federalism leaves many powers to the states, making it hard for the central government to coordinate a pandemic response even when leadership is strong and competent. The Senate and the filibuster are set up to block swift legislative solutions to the nation’s mounting challenges under Trump’s faltering presidentship.
“China is trying to turn its health crisis into a geopolitical opportunity,” says Yu Jie, a senior research fellow on China at Chatham House, a UK-based think-tank. “It is launching a soft power campaign aimed at filling the vacuum left by the United States.” This appraisal is rightly endorsed by FT’s James Kynge and Hudson Lockett report: ‘’China had been looking for — an opportunity to start reframing its role from that of the country that accelerated the virus’s spread through cover-ups, to that of the magnanimous global power offering leadership at a time of panic and peril in much of the rest of the world. …’’
Initially, it appeared that Beijing’ bungling of its initial response to the outbreak indicated that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was under global pressure; but as the crisis progressed, it has begun to seem that the U.S. may suffer even greater damage to its international position and prestige. Put simply, the US is no longer a country that the rest of the world wants to emulate or, if they do, the emulators tend to be authoritarian nativist demagogues or despots. The big winner from this unprecedented U.S. retreat looks to be China. Clearly, both the President and the US Secretary of State have had denounced China for its failings in the initial handling of the outbreak. But Chinese spokesmen have utterly rejected any idea that they were less than transparent about what was going on. Meanwhile, social media in China has spread stories that the pandemic has been caused by a US military germ warfare programme—the rumours that gained considerable traction globally. Scientists have demonstrated that the virus structure is entirely natural in origin.
Needless to say, the ongoing Corona crisis has well-exposed the flaws in US leadership role. Now, something appears to be changing as America seems mired, its very ability to rebound in question. A new power has emerged to challenge American authority-cum-supremacy —China — with a weapon that Moscow never possessed: mutually assured economic destruction. Many Republicans consider Donald Trump unfit for the office: his feral cleverness and his capacity for striking fear into potential opponents, either by turning loose his bewitched base on a dissident Republican or backing a primary challenger in the dissident’s next election.
Today, the US seems deeply divided by “negative partisanship,” with both parties motivated more by their opposition to the other than by advocacy for their own ideas. But one of these camps, Trump’s Republican Party, has combined this adversarial approach with a deep suspicion of expertise and of governance generally. And yet, such anti-establishment attitudes do discomfiture Trump, he has eagerly stoked them further for his own political gain. But no matter what US President Donald Trump says to avoid responsibility for the unfolding catastrophe. Even though the coronavirus itself is new and the timing of the current outbreak could not have been predicted, it was well recognized by experts that a pandemic of this type was likely.
Despite Trump’s blunt escape from addressing responsibility for the unfolding catastrophe, even though the coronavirus itself is new and the timing of the current outbreak could not have been predicted, it was well recognized by experts that a pandemic of this type was likely to come. Moreover, a recession is sadly necessary to stop the spread of this virus. In the United States, over 50% of jobs are at risk from layoffs, furloughs, reduced pay, and lost hours. Virtually every sector of the economy stands to lose a large chunk of its business, household incomes will be devastated, and spending by consumers and firms will rapidly decline.
Trump himself may yet pay a price in November’s presidential election for his inept mismanagement of a public health crisis. But in general, the coronavirus crisis is a political gift for nativist nationalists and protectionists. The manufacturing collapse has already begun; the service economy, which employs 80% of all workers, will be next. One pandemic thus will lead to another – of unemployment. The avalanche of layoffs will bring a wave of defaults, bankruptcies and depressed profits. The domino effect will continue across many domains, from collapsing state and municipal tax revenues and business failures to impoverished communities, declining health outcomes, homelessness, and “deaths of despair.”
It seems understandably understood via these reflections that the redistribution of power among a handful of nation- states is profoundly disrupting the global order. Established twentieth century powers such as the U.S. and EU are ceding importance and influence to faster-growing China’s influence. Old alliances forged after the Second World War are giving way to new regional coalitions across Latin America, Asia and Africa. While these reconfigurations/retransformations reflect regional political, economic and demographic shifts, they also increase the risk of volatility, including war. And yet the changing tapestry of global power is richly manifested via the ongoing implications of the Coronavirus dynamics.
That said, the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has ushered in a new age of global diplomacy where the Asian nations are trying, with some success,(China, South Korea, Taiwan) to turn the global health crisis into an opportunity to enhance their soft power and fill the diplomatic vacuum left by President Trump. Seoul has launched a national campaign to brand itself as the cutting edge state in the fight against the virus, and its president is leading an aggressive diplomatic effort focused on the G-20 and Japan. The nations that emerge successfully from the global health crisis will gain influence.
—The writer, an independent ‘IR’ researcher-cum-international law analyst based in Pakistan, is member of European Consortium for Political Research Standing Group on IR, Critical Peace & Conflict Studies, also a member of Washington Foreign Law Society and European Society of International Law.
