EVER since the 7 October Hamas attack, the Government of Israel has been determined to eliminate Hamas from Gaza itself, which means they want a return to full-scale occupation of the tiny enclave. However, the ground offensive begun in October is still proceeding slowly and has not made much progress after weeks. The IDF obviously does not want to rush headlong into the maze of traps and fortifications that Hamas has been building since 2007, hence is conducting its operations in incremental manner, like demolishing a building one brick at a time. But it is still going to be a fierce fight. Both Israel and Hamas have spent their entire existence focused on turning themselves into a war-fighting machine. And now these machines are going all-out against each other for the first time. That means uncharted territory for Israel, which made limited incursions into Hamas-ruled Gaza before but has never attempted to take on the entire tunnel network Hamas built, the so-called “Gaza Metro”. That is what the IDF will be focused on for the remainder of the campaign.
It will be an immense challenge. The earth itself provides vast protection to the fighters that manage to penetrate inside it. But Israel also can turn this protection on its head. Tunnels only allow people a one-dimensional route of travel. The IDF may embark on a tactic of blocking tunnels at particular points, breaking up the tunnel network, and if sections of tunnels collapse as a result of explosions, Hamas personnel will not be able to clear them quickly. Whenever Israel finds underground bases and voids, it may try to collapse them, burying under hundreds of tons of rock and soil all those who are inside. Tunnels can also be flooded, filled with poison gas, or asphyxiated through fire. Such tactics are going to be Israel’s only feasible chance of vanquishing the underground threat in Gaza, which is probably why Hamas captured as many Israeli hostages as they could on 7 October and brought them back, to provide a deterrent against Israel’s war of annihilation.
This annihilation extends above ground as well. Israel’s horrific air bombardment and total siege happening since 7 October are probably meant to soften up Gaza for the presence of troops on the ground. Through this all, the people of Gaza suffered terribly. And the ground invasion is now going to ramp up the danger they face, because when the IDF puts itself on the line, it has fewer options to avoid wreaking havoc. The airplanes hovering in the sky over Gaza are not in danger. They can therefore attack whenever they want and also easily depart at any point. Soldiers on the ground in Gaza have limited mobility and can be ambushed by Hamas at any time and attacked from any direction, which the tunnel network present everywhere in Gaza will greatly facilitate. When they are pinned in battles not of their own choosing, they will be prompted to take desperate actions that have little regard for the safety of civilians around them. This war will go down in the annals of wars with ferocity of its own. It could be epoch-making because having experienced a war like this will make humanity move forward with new rules and regulations of warfare.
Ultimately, Israel’s grand strategy in Gaza is what matters for their purpose. They may want to destroy Hamas once and for all, but they also cannot just leave a vacuum behind that a group with similar goals can fill later. In the annals of asymmetric warfare, the bigger side often has a choice between two strategies, search and destroy or clear and hold. Because Gaza is so small and Hamas is unlikely to regroup in another country like Egypt, clear and hold is the obvious option for Israel. That means a permanent occupation, a return to what Israel did for decades after 1967. Because Hamas knows it too, what we are witnessing is a fight to the finish.
Whatever Israel’s or Hamas’ vision for Gaza’s future is, the lives of Gaza civilians hang in the balance and their future will be determined by what happens in the present. Many are being killed. Many are being maimed or will suffer long-term health problems, including life-time problems that stem from the squalid conditions in which they are being born. Their infrastructure is being destroyed. Their environment is being fouled. The weak economy of the Gaza Strip will take a very long time to recover from the devastation of today. The world’s moral calibre is being tested by how it responds to this war and what it does to help besieged civilians.
—The writer is Director at Pakistan’s People-Led Disaster Management.
Email: shahzebkhansaheb@gmail.com
views expressed are writer’s own.
