Dr Zainab Ahmed
Water is life, the essence of which is to share.
Rivers are not just the source of water supply, rather they are the cradle of civilizations, bedrock of economies, element of national power and sovereignty.
Command of river waters is integral to agriculture which is still fundamentally significant for industrial economies too.
Dams are not just storage structures rather create command over water flows being an millennia old spectacle.
The Ma’rib Dam in the ancient Kingdom of Saba (present day Yemen) was a glaring symbol of the thriving empire.
Nations have had intense tensions and conflicts over water distribution but a full-fledge war over water is a rare phenomenon.
Current global per capita water availability is below 5,000 cubic meters for 76% population while 35% of global population is experiencing very low or catastrophic water shortage.
This is expected to fall to 860 cubic meters per capita by 2040.
Will there be a war on water in the 21st century?
Peeping deep into the history,we find the conflicts on Tigris and Euphrates between the ancient Sumerian city states of Lagash and Umma in 2,500 BC which was later dominated by Assyrian and Babylonian empires to capitalize upon agriculture.
The great powers of the past did not exactly fight a war on water despite having strongest militaries, yet the Assyrians exploited water as weapon in conflicts.
Rive Nile was the foundation of the great Egyptian civilization over millennia stimulating conflicts with Nubia (modern day Sudan).
This tension is still alive between both countries on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
Twentieth century, witnessing maximum development inhuman history, also stands significant in respect to riparian conflicts.
The Jordan River, shared by Israel, Jordan, Palestine and Syria, has been deeply associated with Arab-Israel conflicts in 1948 and 1967.
Indus River System is the continuous source of tension between Pakistan and India despite the successful Indus Water Treaty in 1960.
China’s dam construction on Mekong River has direct implications for Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand.
Despite the fact, the US and Mexico has signed treaty on Colorado River in 1944, the cooperation under strained environment on river waters continues.
The contemporarywater sharing tensions have high intensity to brew into conflicts because of the underlying factors like industrialization, urbanization and unprecedented population growth.
However, the more pronounced reasons are association of water sharing with territorial conflicts, diversion of river flows, effects of Climate Change, and political distresses.
There are almost 260 transboundary river basins most of which have complete settlement on water sharing.
South Asia has a unique position in the world, as it is of one of the largest growing and least integrated regions being nuclear flashpoint.
The rivalry between India and Pakistan defines the strategic environment of the region in which Indus River System has critical significance.
Though the issue remained partially settled for decades due to the successful Indus Water Treaty yet the recent weaponization of the treaty by India has potentially shattered the partial resolution of matter in 1960.
The unprecedented act of India putting treaty in unilateral abeyance and weaponizing water by associating it with terrorism unleashes a challenge the world might not have witnessed before.
A little after the treaty was signed disagreements started on the design violations but the treaty has provided the conflict resolution mechanism too.
The lower riparian states are always subject to lower riparian anxiety.
There is a strong narrative building in India since 2014 under Modi regime that allocation of 80% water of the western rivers of Indus system is against the interests of the Indian people.
During all election campaigns he has been targeting Indus Water Treaty as unjust to India.
Since early 1990s the disagreement of Pakistan over various designs of hydro power projects of India on Chenab and Jhelum has been increasing.
Under the treaty there is also a compulsion of sharing the data of projects and water flows.
Throughout the period of treaty India has been sharing only 40% of the data.
The critical part of the data sharing was regarding the planned or ongoing projects on western rivers.
Even with the limited and delayed data sharing Pakistan has been raising objections on designs of various projects like Baglihar, Ratle, Kishanganga, Wullar, Salal etc.
The objections have been based on the understanding that these designs would affect the flow of water downstream.
In Kishanganga Hydropower project India was allowed to diver the water for energy generation on the condition of releasing nine cubic meters per second (9 cumecs).
Under the treaty the de siltation of the upstream projects is the responsibility of the upper riparian as in the Himalayan region there is considerable siltation and it may affect the lower riparian’s projects.
Pakistan had again taken the matter of Kishanganga and Ratle projects to World Bank on design objection.
Pakistan’s position was that Ratle Dam could reduce the flow of Chenab by 40% at MaralaHeadworks.
Meanwhile India completed the Kishanganga project in 2017 while Pakistan’s request to World Bank to refer case for arbitration was under process.
In 2023, the Permanent Court of Arbitration gave its decision that it had jurisdiction over this case rejecting India’s objections.
India did not just take such a strong position on IWT overnight rather it is deeply connected to the populist politics of Prime Minister Modi.
In 2016, after terrorist attack at Uri Modi’s government was swift in associating incident with Pakistan.
Right then a commission was set up to deliberate over the abrogation of treaty.
The legal counsel certainly reached the known conclusion that there was no unilateral abrogation clause.
In every election campaign since then, Indus Water Treaty remains the subject of bashing against Pakistan.
After Pulwama attacks and following military standoff, the revocation of Article 370 and change in the status of Kashmir also implicates the change in the practical control of western rivers flowing through Indian Illegally Occupied Kashmir.
In addition to that India’s repeated claim over Gilgit Baltistan is not just a rhetoric against China Pakistan Economic Corridor, rather it also has implications for the Indus flowing into Pakistan through this part.
During last eighteen months almost, India has written three letters to Pakistan requiring modification of the treaty and in the last letter it was threatened to sever all communications under it if modification was not agreed to by Pakistan.
The World Bank is a facilitator under this treaty lacking any arbitrary powers.
The logical way forward for Pakistan is to seek its facilitation.
The nature of the matter is legal so it would require a legal pursuit which is a time taking process.
During this time India would not be communicating required data, it can not abide by the de silting condition, and it can stop sharing water flows data which is critical during monsoon season.
This increases the existential risks of lower riparian Pakistan, whose 80% agriculture depends on Indus System and is already facing 23% water shortage during this season.
The fluid global order at the moment has played vitally in this conflict emboldening India to not abide by international commitments.
The global and regional powers must giver IWT as much importance as they gave to the last week’s crisis.
The water issue can currently affect the intricately volatile balance of power in South Asia like never before. [Email:zainab.ahmed@bnu.edu.pk.]
