By-polls: A barometer of political situation in Punjab
PUNJAB by-elections on 20 Punjab Assembly seats are being viewed as a referendum for Mr.Imran Khan’s anti-establishment narrative and against that of the government.
For the PTI, it appears to be a survival of PTI, which paints the electoral bout as a fight between PTI and PML-N.
The 20 by-elections due in Punjab on 17th July will be watched nationally, as their impact will be felt beyond the province.
The by-elections were necessitated after the ECP de-seated a number of rebel PTI provincial members for voting against the party line.
The results of the by-elections, and subsequent re—election for the Punjab Chief Executive on 22th July will hopefully settle the administrative confusion that has affected governance in Pakistan’s most populous province.
Moreover, the electoral exercise will serve as a litmus test for PTI as well as PML-N and PPP, reflecting which way the political winds are blowing in Punjab.
In the present electoral environment Hamza Shehbaz is enjoying a razor thin majority in the Provincial Assembly.
Should the PTI claw back the majority of the 20 seats, Hamza Shehbaz’s short lived tenure as provincial Chief Minister will surely be over, paving the way for Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi or whoever else PTI nominates to take the reins in Punjab.
On the other hand, if CM Hamza Shehbaz survives, his hands will be strengthened and he will be able to steer Punjab’s ship till the next elections.
Clarity is certainly needed in the province, as in the recent past people of Punjab have witnessed the spectacle of two parallel Punjab Assembly sessions, one chaired by Speaker Pervaiz Elahi, and the other by Deputy Speaker Dost Mazari.
This kind of political wrangling takes away the administration focus from more pressing matters, such as governance, law and order.
Beyond the Chief Minister’s election, the by-elections will be a barometer of the political situation in Punjab after the departure of the PTI’s government at the Centre.
Former Prime Minister Imran Khan is currently on a whistle stop tour of Punjab, breathing fire against the turncoats who ditched him, and urging voters to return PTI candidates across Punjab.
At this point Mr.Imran Khan seems ahead of the PML-N and its rivals on the campaign trail.
However, considering the incredibly polarised political atmosphere, particularly in Punjab, the Election Commission of Pakistan and the provincial administration need to be on their toes to ensure that the electoral process is free from violence and intimidation as per order of Supreme Court of Pakistan.
After all, the violence and mismanagement seen in Karachi NA-240 by election, as well as the first phase of Sindh local government elections has left a lot to be desired.
Both PML-N and PTI must also keep political temperature in check and ensure that their workers and supporters remain peaceful on election day.
The road to Islamabad indeed runs through Lahore, and the results of Punjab by-elections may well reflect national trends at least for the foreseeable future.
With the PTI sticking to its allegations that attempts are being made to rig the upcoming by-elections in Punjab will be held on the basis of old electoral rolls used in the 2018 general election.
An official of ECP also said that the PTI stepped up campaign against the ECP appears to be linked to the prohibited funding case against the PTI, after the ECP reserved its verdict in the case.
As per my information, decision will be announced in the third week of July. In the last, a party insider of PML-N informed that the PML-N has woken up to reports by party men that the position of PML-N backed candidates in some constituencies is weak due to a kind of revolt within the local party cadre against them and a prompt and has to be sent to them in the form of the trusted party workers who could manage to help the candidates.
Sardar Ayaz Sadiq, Khawaja Suleman Rafique, Awais Laghari and Malik Ahmad Khan will not only ensure support for the weak candidates within the party by luring the angry workers but also lead their campaigns till Friday 12 O’clock.
PML-N has taken it seriously but PTI supporters are convinced that they have won the election and if it is not, then rigging, rigging and rigging.
I think it is a non serious attitude on PTI’s part or rather I should say they are not contesting the election but busy making their point valid.
It’s astonishing that the allies of PML-N like Asif Ali Zardari and Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman are mysteriously disassociated from by-elections campaign and in the background Asif Ali Zardari is lobbing to become President of Pakistan in October 2022 in place of Dr Arif Alvi.
—The writer is former Secretary Election Commission of Pakistan and currently Chairman National Democratic Foundation.
