CANADIAN politics has once again shown its capacity for dramatic turns.
Just months ago, the Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau was grappling with its lowest approval ratings in years.
Polls pointed toward a comfortable Conservative majority and Trudeau’s leadership was under fire not only from opposition parties but from within.
Several party veterans announced they wouldn’t seek re-election, some disillusioned, others convinced the party was headed for certain defeat.
When the snap election was called, the Liberals rushed to fill ridings, more out of necessity than strategy.
The campaign seemed patchwork and defensive.
Then came a sudden reversal.
Trudeau resigned and Mark Carney, the globally respected economist and former Governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, emerged as the new Liberal leader.
His entry brought renewed credibility, calm and purpose to a floundering party.
Carney’s polished leadership style and economic gravitas immediately began to resonate with a wary but attentive electorate.
The true pivot came following the re-election of US President Donald Trump.
Trump quickly issued aggressive trade threats and made offhand remarks questioning Canada’s sovereignty.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre responded with caution and vague language, but Carney struck a different tone.
In a televised address, he proposed reciprocal tariffs and declared, “We will protect Canadian workers and Canadian sovereignty, without compromise.
” The speech was widely praised for its clarity and resolve.
That moment marked a turning point.
The Liberals quickly seized the momentum, reframing the election as a defence of Canadian values and independence.
Carney called a snap federal vote for April 28, turning what had appeared to be a retreat into a bold counteroffensive.
The polls responded accordingly.
Recent data shows the Liberals leading with 43% support, followed by the Conservatives at 38% and the NDP at just 9%.
While dramatic, this reversal fits a familiar pattern in Canadian politics, where late-game surges and sudden shifts are not uncommon.
In 2006, Paul Martin’s Liberals were strong contenders until the sponsorship scandal derailed their campaign.
In 2011, Jack Layton’s NDP surged to official opposition almost overnight, powered by charisma and grassroots momentum.
And in 2015, Trudeau’s Liberals leapt from third place to a majority, defying expert forecasts.
These episodes reflect a central truth: in Canada, political fortunes can change in an instant.
One reason is the volatility of public opinion.
Leadership changes, global events, economic developments or even a single ill-chosen phrase can reshape an election.
Canadians are deeply engaged and sensitive to questions of leadership and national integrity.
A statement perceived as weak on sovereignty or unjust toward ordinary citizens can spark a swift backlash.
Politicians are careful with their words, knowing how unforgiving the electorate can be when trust is broken.
At the same time, it’s important to reflect on Justin Trudeau’s contribution.
Despite recent political struggles, he guided Canada through defining moments: opening doors to Syrian refugees, managing the COVID-19 crisis and pushing forward climate and equity initiatives.
He inspired a generation and advanced issues long considered politically risky.
But high expectations come with high stakes.
When delivery falls short, admiration turns to criticism.
Trudeau, once hailed globally as a progressive icon, ultimately became a case study in how public favour can evaporate.
Now, as the country nears the April 28, 2025 vote, it finds itself navigating a complex landscape.
US relations are strained under Trump’s presidency.
Climate change demands urgent and coordinated action.
Indigenous reconciliation remains incomplete, too often stalled by bureaucracy or political caution.
Domestically, Canadians face economic challenges, stubborn inflation, a rising cost of living, housing unaffordability, healthcare pressures and growing concern over digital misinformation and foreign interference.
Whoever wins the upcoming election won’t just gain power, they’ll inherit immense responsibility.
Canadians are not seeking drama or slogans.
They want stability, clarity and results.
They expect leaders to restore economic balance, defend national sovereignty and ensure dignity and opportunity for all.
Above all, Canadians are demanding realism over rhetoric.
They want competent leadership that respects their intelligence and responds to their daily struggles.
They expect honesty over spin, substance over spectacle and action over appearances.
And they are prepared to hold leaders accountable, through polls, through protest and ultimately through the ballot box.
In Canadian politics, nothing is ever guaranteed, except the vigilance of its people.
—The writer is a PhD and Barrister, Solicitor & Notary Public, based in Canada. (usmanlawoffice@gmail.com)
