IN December 2024, the United States and China renewed their government-to-government Science and Technology Agreement (STA) with a five-year protocol, continuing collaboration first established in 1979. Over the decades, the STA has yielded significant mutual benefits, with the US leveraging China’s biodiversity to advance agriculture, medicine, and environmental science, besides joining hands in climate science, renewable energy, AI, and quantum computing. For China, the STA facilitated modernization in biotechnology, aerospace, and telecommunications while enabling its researchers to gain expertise at US institutions, fuelling domestic advancements in agriculture, environmental policy, and clean energy. The deep-rooted cooperation between the United States and China defies the prevalent perception of adversarial bilateral relations. In reality, their economies are so deeply intertwined and interdependent that further strengthening their economic, financial, trade and investment ties seems inevitable.
Bilateral trade surpasses $700 billion annually, making it one of the most significant economic relationships in the world—larger than the entire GDP of over 150 countries. As of 2023, US investment in China totalled approximately $126.9 billion, focused on sectors like manufacturing, healthcare, and consumer goods, while China’s investment in the US stood at about $28 billion, concentrated in real estate, technology, and infrastructure. If all economic, political, and legal irritants between the United States and China were resolved, their trade and investment relationship could grow exponentially, potentially doubling trade volumes to over $1.5 trillion annually and increasing bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) to $500 billion or more, transforming them into a global trade powerhouse.
However, significant roadblocks hinder this potential, including a persistent trade imbalance, tariffs, and mutual accusations of unfair practices. Intellectual property concerns, forced technology transfers, and restrictive regulations challenge US businesses in China, while national security fears limit Chinese investment in sensitive US sectors. Geopolitical tensions over Taiwan, the South China Sea, and human rights issues in Xinjiang and Hong Kong exacerbate mistrust. In an ideal scenario, where the United States and China have resolved their longstanding differences, established a partnership that have prioritize global development, technological innovation, and peace, diplomatic resolutions have address security issues in Taiwan and human rights concerns, while fair trade policies and the removal of investment barriers have created open markets and foster mutual trust, in such a scenario, the two nations could lead efforts to upgrade road, air, and port infrastructure worldwide, adding an estimated $2 trillion in global trade capacity annually and boosting GDP growth by $500 billion across developing regions.
This mutually beneficial collaboration could extend to defense and space research, yielding advancements in security, space exploration, and renewable energy technologies through an estimated combined annual investment of $300 billion, generating global benefits. Additionally, the partnership would ensure peaceful and secure sea, air, and land routes, paving the way for sustained economic growth and global stability, with contributions estimated at $1 trillion annually to global economic activity. For the citizens of both nations, this cooperation will bring significant dividends. Open markets and seamless trade, estimated to exceed $2 trillion annually, will boost GDP growth by $1 trillion combined and create millions of new jobs in sectors like manufacturing, agriculture, and technology.
Joint investment in clean energy, valued at $500 billion over a decade, will make renewable technologies affordable and accessible, reducing energy costs for households and businesses by as much as 20%-30%. Defence collaboration will reduce tensions, reallocating an estimated $100 billiaon annually to critical sectors like healthcare, education, and infrastructure. Increased cultural exchanges and educational opportunities, valued at $30 billiosn annually through student and tourism contributions, will further strengthen mutual understanding and nurture global talent.
Globally, this partnership will drive transformative changes. Modernized infrastructure projects across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, worth an estimated $1.5 trillion in investment, will unlock economic potential, reduce poverty, and foster regional development, adding $500 billion annually to regional GDP. Affordable renewable energy initiatives and global climate efforts will mitigate environmental risks, contributing $200 billion annually in savings from reduced emissions and energy efficiency gains. Collaborative trade and economic policies will stabilize markets, reduce volatility, and enhance global supply chains, contributing an estimated $1 trillion annually to global economic efficiency. Joint advancements in AI, quantum computing will add $300 billion annually in global technological value, addressing challenges like climate change and resource optimization.
A US-China partnership in space exploration would revolutionize scientific discovery, technological innovation, and global economic growth, benefiting both nations and the world. By pooling resources, expertise, and infrastructure, they could achieve ambitious goals like establishing lunar and Martian bases, advancing satellite technology, and pioneering space-based industries such as asteroid mining and solar power. This collaboration would lower costs, accelerate breakthroughs in medicine, energy, and materials science, and create millions of high-tech jobs. Beyond the economic and scientific dividends, a united front in space exploration would inspire humanity, reduce geopolitical tensions, and foster global cooperation, marking a transformative era for civilization. By reallocating resources currently spent on military competition, trade restrictions, and geopolitical conflicts, both nations could instead foster global peace and channel investment into projects that uplift not just their citizens but also billions of people around the world.
The logic for such cooperation is compelling. Continued rivalry drains resources, creates uncertainty, and destabilizes global markets, harming not only the two nations but also the international community. In contrast, collaboration would unleash the peace dividend, reducing global tensions and ensuring stability. Investment in infrastructure, clean energy, and technology could catalyze growth across developing regions, lifting millions out of poverty and fostering resilience against global challenges like climate change. Ultimately, the realization of this vision depends on the leadership of both nations understanding that mutual upliftment is not just desirable—it is essential for the well-being of their own citizens and for global progress. The path to cooperation may require hard compromises, but the rewards—a peaceful, prosperous, and unified world—are undeniably worth the effort.
—The writer is a former Press Secretary to the President of Pakistan.
(qamarbashirepw@gmail.com)
