COVID-19 wreaked havoc all over the world, besides taking a huge toll of precious lives, the global pandemic shattered economies, put development projects on a hold and brought numerous countries to the threshold of bankruptcy. China suffered like the rest of the world but it managed to control the death toll with a stringent lockdown protocol and wide distribution of covid prevention vaccines to combat the spread of coronavirus. Spikes occurred owing to the mutation of the virus and discovery of new strains of the deadly disease. These too were overcome and the lockdown procedures were relaxed in December 2022. The road to China’s economic recovery however, has been slow but effective damage control procedures, prudent monetary policies and far reaching fiscal measures checked the downfall.
The West, like the rest of humanity, suffered a major impact of the pandemic, losing valuable lives and facing an economic meltdown. Nevertheless, instead of focusing on adopting measures to save lives of its populace and reviving its economy, the Occident was more concerned with critically observing China, not for learning lessons from its cautious steps to stem the rot but for engaging in a propaganda campaign to divert attention away from its own economic woes and chastising the Chinese government.
Mercifully, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has reported data and figures which covered the period of decline as well as the recovery. Although China’s detractors continue to portray a dismal picture of the state of China’s economy as well as the impact of COVID-19 on China’s population, data from NBS present a realistic picture of China’s economic recovery. A comparison of 2022 with 2023 depicts that despite the fact that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) took a dip in mid-2023, both its CPI and PPI are on a trajectory of stable development, especially in the second half of the outgoing year.
The statistics also indicate that notwithstanding the decline in February 2023, the industrial sector also shows a robust growth. The value added growth rate for Chinese industry portrays that in November 2022, it was 3.65 percent; in February 2023, it dipped to 2.34 percent but from this ebb, the recovery commenced and by November 2023, it had risen to 6.60 percent.
Similarly, China’s huge domestic consumer market showed a steady recovery. According to data released by NBS, the total retail sales of consumer goods in November 2022 amounted to 34, 657.82 (100 million Chinese Yuan), which was minus seven percent growth rate. It faced a downward trend in February to April 2023 but by November 2023, it had recovered to 42,505.00 (100 million Chinese Yuan), recording a growth rate of 10.10 percent.
For a more vivid picture, one needs to examine the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2023. In the first quarter, it recorded 28,4996.6 (100 million Chinese Yuan), for the second quarter of the outgoing year, 30,8037.6 (100 million Chinese Yuan); while in the third quarter of 2023, Data show an overall upward trend, with the GDP hiking up to 30,9992.3 (100 million Chinese Yuan). This includes figures for primary, secondary and tertiary industries. Depicting the same trend, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries, jumped from 12257.4 (100 million Chinese Yuan) in the first quarter to 27173.8 (100 million Chinese Yuan) in the third quarter. Grain output reached another record high. The total output of grain in 2023 was 1,390.8 billion jin, an increase of 17.76 billion jin compared to the previous year, or up by 1.3 percent.
Industrial production experienced accelerated recovery, equipment manufacturing and High-tech manufacturing rebounding. In November 2023, the total value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 6.6 percent year marking a on year, 2.0 percentage point increased compared to the previous month.
It would be worthwhile to look at a few other indicators: in December 2023, Tesla, the renowned Electronic Vehicle manufacturer, significantly increased its overall wholesale Made-in-China (MIC) vehicle shipments (local retail sales and exports, which amounted to 94,139 units in December, reflecting a manufacturing 69% increase more than a year ago.
Despite these robust statistics which are evidence of the recovery of the Chinese economy, negative reports in western and Indian media continue to deride China and present their own parameters of gauging the state of the Chinese economy. Eurasia Review (ER), in an opinion piece titled ‘A Look At China’s Economy Through Performance Of Beijing Capital International Airport – Analysis’ published on January 6, 2024, has taken Beijing Capital International Airport as an example, and comments that its performance in 2023 was notably subdued. ER observes that through the lens of passenger flows at airports across China, the palpable impact of pandemic control measures coupled with the economic downturn continued throughout 2023.
Eurasia Review concludes that airport passenger traffic is an important window for observing the recovery of the Chinese economy. Looking at the passenger throughput data from major airports in the country in 2023, it is evident that the recovery of the Chinese economy is not easy and cannot be expected to happen overnight. Particularly noteworthy is the significant impact of strict pandemic prevention and control measures implemented in the past few years.
Reuters, on the other hand, has used population growth as a prism for observing and gauging China’s growth. It reports that China’s population likely dropped for a second consecutive year in 2023 due to a surge in COVID-related deaths after the country abruptly ended strict lockdowns, while weak confidence in the economy’s prospects keeps birth rates depressed. The population dip comes as China grapples with the challenge of a rapidly ageing demographic. The Reuters report highlights that the number of people older than 60 years is expected to increase from around 280 million currently to over 400 million by 2035 – more than the population of the United States. Amidst the barrage of criticism, the critics remain oblivious to the vital fact that despite the challenge of COVID-19, the Chinese leadership managed to achieve a miracle — its first centennial goal — eradicating absolute poverty from China by
—The writer is a Retired Group Captain of PAF, who has written several books on China.
Email: sultanm.hali@gmail.com
views expressed are writer’s own.
