THE repatriation of Afghan refugees from Pakistan, which commenced on April 1st, is likely to strain relations between Islamabad and the Taliban-led government in Kabul.
Pakistan’s decision to deport undocumented Afghan refugees and those holding Afghan Citizen Cards (ACC) has already sparked diplomatic tensions.
The Taliban Administration had requested an extension to the March 31 deadline, but Pakistan rejected the appeal.
Pakistan has linked the presence of Afghan refugees to rising militancy and cross-border attacks, blaming groups operating from Afghan soil.
The Taliban, however, denies these allegations and has accused Pakistan of scapegoating Afghan nationals.
This tit-for-tat narrative has deepened distrust between the two governments.
On the humanitarian front, the forced repatriation has raised concerns about the safety and well-being of Afghan refugees, many of whom fear persecution under the Taliban regime.
Rights groups and international organizations have criticized Pakistan’s policy, calling for more compassionate measures.
The situation underscores the fragile relationship between the two neighbours, with security concerns and political disagreements fuelling the divide.
Meanwhile, the United Nations has made several recommendations regarding the repatriation of Afghan refugees from Pakistan, emphasizing that repatriation should be voluntary and conducted in a dignified manner, ensuring that refugees are not forced to return to unsafe conditions.
They recommend that special attention should be given to vulnerable groups, such as women, children and those facing persecution, to ensure their safety and access to basic rights.
The UN calls for increased international support to both Pakistan and Afghanistan to manage the refugee situation effectively and provide necessary resources.
The UN urges that refugees returning to Afghanistan should receive adequate humanitarian assistance, including shelter, food and psychosocial support.
The Afghan asylum seekers’ issue between Pakistan and Afghanistan is complex and multifaceted, requiring a combination of humanitarian, political and economic solutions.
The global community, including organizations like the UNHCR, can play a pivotal role in providing financial and logistical support to both Pakistan and Afghanistan to manage the refugee crisis effectively.
Pakistan could consider adopting international refugee conventions to ensure the rights and protections of Afghan refugees are upheld.
This would also help in creating structured policies for their integration or repatriation.
Initiatives like vocational training and employment opportunities for refugees can help them contribute to the local economy, reducing the strain on host communities.
Programs that encourage refugees to return to Afghanistan voluntarily, with assurances of safety and economic opportunities, can be a sustainable solution.
Stability in Afghanistan is crucial.
Efforts to improve security, governance and economic conditions in Afghanistan can reduce the need for people to flee.
Promoting social cohesion between refugees and host communities can mitigate tensions and foster mutual understanding.
The issue is deeply tied to regional stability and requires a balanced approach that considers the needs of refugees, host communities and the broader geopolitical landscape.
If Pakistan extends the deadline for repatriating Afghan refugees, the government could consider several options: It can opt for a phased repatriation by implementing a gradual process to ensure refugees have time to wind up their affairs, such as closing businesses or arranging transportation.
Islamabad can issue temporary permits or extend Proof of Registration (PoR) cards for documented refugees, while continuing to identify undocumented individuals.
Collaboration with international organizations by partnering with benevolent groups to provide financial and logistical support for repatriation and resettlement can help.
Security measures like strengthening border controls and monitoring to address concerns about illegal immigration and security threats.
Humanitarian assistance can be enhanced by offering aid to the displaced persons during the transition, especially for those born in Pakistan who may face challenges adapting to life in Afghanistan.
Engaging with the Taliban Government to ensure a structured and dignified return process is essential.
These measures could help balance humanitarian concerns with national security priorities.
The question arises whether the repatriation of Afghan refugees will reduce terror attacks in Pakistan?
Security officials in Pakistan have linked Afghan refugees to security concerns, citing instances where Afghan nationals were allegedly involved in attacks.
The repatriation is part of broader security measures aimed at addressing terrorism, particularly in regions like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
Many Afghan refugees have lived in Pakistan for decades, contributing to the local economy and society.
Their forced return could disrupt communities but the repatriation of Afghan refugees from Pakistan is unlikely to directly compel the Taliban to eject the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) from Afghanistan.
The Taliban’s relationship with the TTP is complex, as both groups share ideological ties and historical connections.
While Pakistan has accused the TTP of orchestrating attacks from Afghan territory, the Taliban has often denied harbouring or supporting the group.
The repatriation may increase pressure on the Taliban to address Pakistan’s security concerns, but whether this leads to decisive action against the TTP remains uncertain.
The Taliban’s priorities and internal dynamics, as well as regional geopolitics, will play a significant role in shaping their response.
The repatriation of Afghan refugees from Pakistan has no straightforward answer.
While some argue that it could help reduce terror attacks, others highlight potential challenges and unintended consequences.
Human rights organizations have criticized the repatriation process, warning of worsening conditions for returnees in Afghanistan.
Experts suggest that addressing the root causes of terrorism, such as cross-border militant sanctuaries and regional instability, is crucial.
The effectiveness of this policy in reducing terror attacks depends on how it’s implemented and whether it addresses the underlying security challenges.
For the time being, the milieu is murky and uncertain.
—The writer, Retired Group Captain of PAF, is author of several books on China. (sultanm.hali@gmail.com)
