THE CPEC Phase-II stands for greater regional connectivity, socio-economic integration, infrastructure development and last but not least qualitative industrialization and human resource development in the country and beyond and the most recent decision of “extending” it up to Afghanistan clearly demonstrates its compounding multiplier effects in the region and beyond.
However, the rapidly emerging socio-economic, geopolitical and geostrategic scenarios in South Asia, South East Asia, Central Asia, Middle East and the African Continent all vividly reflect that the policy-makers of Pakistan and China must chalk out a new holistic and comprehensive policy to successfully counter “onslaughts” of India and USA in the region by “safeguarding” their economies, communities and commodities and an early execution and completion of numerous projects of the CPEC and BRI would be “ultimate” response from both iron-clad brothers.
Thus strategic balance between “development” and “deterrence” would be an ideal way forward.
Additionally, it seems that New Delhi’s warmongering is trying its best to establish its own “New Normal” in South Asia using all military and kinetic means to achieve its desired goals and hegemonic designs.
After the miserable failure of its military misadventure “Operation Sindoor” the Indian hawkish politicians and military junta have directly targeted the “Indus Water Treaty (IWT)” by holding it in abeyance showing the “Indian strategic anxiety”.
The IWT strikes at the heart of Pakistan’s agricultural lifeline and is tantamount, in Islamabad’s view, to weaponizing water.
Rightly, Islamabad has denounced this move as a “violation” of international law, with warning that any attempt to revoke the agreement would be regarded as an “act of war.”
Comparative studies reveal that the water from this river system is the “lifeline” of Pakistan’s agrarian economy as it feeds 80 percent of its irrigated agriculture, a sector which accounts for 24 percent of its GDP and employs around 37 percent of its workforce.
Unfortunately, the Indian government has initiated several measures that could affect the flow of water into Pakistan including plans to double the length of the Ranbir Canal on the Chenab River, which would increase water diversion from 40 to 150 cubic meters per second.
Moreover, India is considering the construction of new dams and hydropower projects on the rivers allocated to Pakistan under the IWT.
It is absolutely right that legally, India cannot “unilaterally” withdraw from the IWT, as the agreement contains no explicit exit clause and under international law particularly the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT) such a withdrawal or suspension is generally prohibited, unless prompted by a fundamental breach or a significant change in circumstances.
However, global governance and organizations do not perform on merit and easily violate justice.
Furthermore, the treaty’s own provisions mainly Article XII explicitly states that any modification to the agreement must be made by mutual consent.
Pakistan also has other legal avenues to challenge India’s move.
It could invoke Article 60 (material breach) or Article 62 (fundamental change of circumstances) of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties to escalate the matter to the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
Alternatively, Islamabad might appeal to the United Nations, invoking principles such as “equitable water sharing” and the “prevention of transboundary harm” to press for international mediation.
Strategically, Pakistan would leverage its relationship with China, especially as Beijing is not a party to IWT.
China, which controls Tibet’s Indus headwaters, could use its own water projects on the Brahmaputra River (Yarlung Zangbo), which also flows into India and Bangladesh, as a tool because India is also a middle riparian between China and Bangladesh.
It suggests that Pakistan should adopt a “multi-pronged” strategy consisting of diversification of its water sources by investing in reservoirs, better groundwater management and the CPEC phase –II related infrastructure projects (Hydro-power projects) and enhance its legal framework by ratifying the UN Watercourses Convention.
On its part China has said it was accelerating work on a “flagship” dam in Pakistan in the wake of India’s recent threats to cut off water supplies.
The state-owned China Energy Engineering Corporation has been working on the Mohmand Hydropower Project in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in north-western Pakistan since 2019.
The project was scheduled to be completed next year.
The state broadcaster CCTV reported that concrete filling on the dam had started, marking “a critical construction milestone and a phase of accelerated development for this national flagship project of Pakistan”.
The policy makers of Pakistan should also take all possible measure to complete the early completion of all hydro-related projects, including the Diamer Bhasha Dam, to prevent India from taking advantage.
In summary, the US heavy investment in India projecting it as the most important ally against China has faced a serious setback in the shape of recent military defeat of India against Pakistan.
Obviously, India considers the CPEC as its anti-regional dominance and so-called sovereignty.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, proposing concerns regarding CPEC expressing support for the people of Balochistan, highlights its strategic anxiety.
Thus CPEC has become a strategic threat to Indian politico-military leadership searching for refuge in initiating war against Pakistan to disturb its progress and prosperity.
Evidently, India has been busy in its secret activities and mendacious propaganda against Pakistan and relentlessly tried to hurt CPEC and Pakistan’s international image, respectively.
Moreover, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Director General Lt Gen Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry has rightly echoed that “Indian state-sponsored terrorism against Pakistan had been ongoing and was also responsible for the recent attack in Balochistan’s “Khuzdar” targeting innocent school going children.
Ironically, all of sudden surfacing of Balochistan, Sindhudesh and KPK Independent States in the international media and through hand grenades (social media) all indicate Indian footprints, sponsorship and training to BLA, TTP, MB and FS.
These separatists have vowed to target the Chinese national, investors, installations, projects and people linked to CPEC.
Furthermore, the US National Security Strategy is also stimulating the situation in the region, bolstering alliances and partnerships to stop China’s bid to rewrite the rules of the road.
It is a good omen that most recently the “tripartite agreement” among Pakistan, China and Afghanistan expanding the CPEC into Afghanistan allowing China to displace potential Indian influence in Afghanistan, reducing New Delhi’s leverage in the region.
Last but not least, it is a “golden opportunity” for Pakistan to protect its soil and soul from “terrorist’s infiltration” from Afghanistan focusing peace and development through the CPEC strategic “encirclement”.
Since war is not yet over and new normal has now drastically changed the nature, scope and utility of engagements it is better for Pak-Sino to think beyond economic integration and start producing essential equipment and gadgetries (5th generation war-fighter, F-35, nuclear drones for unlimited flight time for constant surveillance, laser technologies, anti-stealth technologies especially for intercepting drones, science & space cooperation against all space dooms, unmanned small submarines, maritime deep drones, electromagnetic, satellite jamming systems etc.) of modern war theatre for securing their mutual economic security, people’s safety, political sovereignty and geographic integrity in case of any external shocks.
(mehmoodulhassankhan7@gmail.com)