THE month of May 2025 is poised to be a significant chapter in the history of India-Pakistan relations within the South Asian geopolitical landscape.
In the wake of what has been characterized by analysts and military experts as a “miscalculated military misadventure” by India, tensions continue to remain heightened, with credible concerns regarding India’s preparations for a retaliatory response.
India’s limited military incursion or attempted strike in May, interrupted by Pakistan’s superior aerial and ground defences, has notably impacted India’s military reputation and raised questions regarding the reliability of its defence equipment, much of which is sourced from foreign allies.
The absence of significant tactical gains alongside considerable operational losses has led to increased scrutiny within Indian strategic circles.
Nevertheless, India’s inclination towards retaliation is grounded not only in emotional responses but also in strategic considerations.
Several indicators suggest that preparations for heightened escalation, including satellite imagery and intelligence assessments, have revealed an increase in military activity near the Line of Control (LoC) and the international border, with joint exercises also reported.
Indian state-controlled and corporate media outlets have intensified nationalist narratives, framing the May incident as “unfinished business” and advocating for decisive military action.
In a speech delivered on May 27, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated, “We have the right to respond at a time and place of our choosing.
Our silence is not our weakness.
” This language suggests a potential for strategic counteraction, albeit at an unspecified time, which is a dangerous option and the world must take note of it.
India’s outreach to key Western partners, including France and Israel, suggests an effort to recalibrate its military capabilities in response to proven shortcomings in its defence systems.
Through these means, India is likely preparing for a complex and potentially escalatory phase in the regional dynamic, necessitating careful navigation from all parties involved.
France, one of India’s primary suppliers of Rafale fighter jets, faced challenges when several Rafale aircraft underperformed during the conflict in May, allegedly due to being jammed or evaded by Pakistan’s advanced air defense systems.
In a statement on May 29, French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized, “France stands by its strategic partners.
Technical shortfalls must not define strategic posture.
” This statement indicates France’s commitment to providing support in terms of repairing or upgrading India’s defence systems.
Israel has also responded proactively.
The Israeli Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, acknowledged the impact of the conflict and stated, “We are reviewing the battlefield setbacks and are committed to strengthening our ally’s defence systems.
” This suggests that Israel may engage in behind-the-scenes arms shipments, electronic warfare updates and potential joint military exercises to bolster India’s capabilities.
In light of the May skirmish, diplomatic efforts intensified.
India dispatched a special delegation led by Shashi Tharoor, recognized for his eloquence and appeal in Western circles.
In response, Pakistan appointed Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, whose experience on international platforms and recent success in leading the OIC bloc significantly enhanced our posture.
Shashi Tharoor, while articulate, encountered challenges in the current geopolitical climate, where various international forums raised questions regarding India’s approach, including its treatment of minorities and perceived authoritarian trends.
Although his addresses were insightful, some analysts viewed them as primarily reactive rather than setting a proactive agenda.
Conversely, Bilawal Bhutto successfully garnered support at the United Nations, OIC and among nations of the Global South, asserting Pakistan’s right to defend its sovereignty while highlighting the technical and ethical shortcomings of India’s operations in May.
Pakistan currently possesses a strengthened international narrative, marking a significant diplomatic achievement.
Global actors showed reluctance to endorse unilateral Indian military actions.
For instance, China’s Foreign Ministry has cautioned that “regional stability cannot be risked for electoral or strategic adventurism.
” Similarly, Turkey has affirmed Pakistan’s right to self-defence while criticising the “double standards in global conflict arbitration.
” Even Germany and Canada, typically neutral, have voiced concerns regarding “India’s growing militarization of its foreign policy.
” This growing apprehension globally signals a shift against Indian military assertiveness, presenting Pakistan with an opportunity to foster a coalition aimed at promoting regional restraint.
While Pakistan has effectively countered India’s aggression both militarily and diplomatically, it is imperative to maintain a proactive approach.
Pakistan should demonstrate its readiness across both conventional and non-conventional platforms.
Engaging in joint drills with allies such as China and Turkey, conducting public missile tests and executing air patrols can serve as credible deterrents.
Pakistan should advocate for the deployment of UN observers near sensitive borders to document any violations and help prevent future escalations.
Initiating a strategic media campaign to illuminate India’s shortcomings and highlight its aggressive posture is vital.
Targeting English-language platforms for outreach can enhance Pakistan’s international image.
It is also important to anticipate potential cyber warfare, economic pressure and covert destabilization tactics.
Strengthening cyber defences, ensuring food and energy security and effectively countering internal misinformation will be crucial.
The missteps in India’s recent approach have led to significant embarrassment; however, it is essential to recognize that such a setback does not guarantee pacification.
Strategic and psychological factors suggest a likelihood of retaliatory actions from India, especially with potential support from allies whose defence industries have suffered setbacks.
Although diplomatic pressure has restricted India’s manoeuvres, there remains a risk of escalation through hybrid warfare, surgical strikes by use of drones or missiles, or other means.
Having gained a diplomatic advantage through notable achievements, including our international engagements, Pakistan must avoid complacency.
Continuous diplomatic efforts, strong military signalling and the enhancement of regional alliances are vital in this context.
As the regional landscape becomes increasingly volatile, Pakistan must employ decisive strategic restraint alongside robust preparedness to mitigate the risk of future conflicts.
In navigating this complex geopolitical environment, Pakistan must aim not only for survival but also for the influence needed to shape the prevailing dynamics.
—The writer is a International Law expert with a rich experience in negotiation, mediation and Alternate Dispute Resolution. (shozab2727@gmail.com)
