THERE are few countries in the world that have faced conspiracy and terrorism since their inception, and Pakistan is one of them. The Partition Plan became the root cause of bloodshed, orchestrated by the Congress. This initial conspiracy resulted in disputed areas and lingering issues, keeping Pakistan and India in a constant state of conflict. The unjust boundary drawn by Radcliffe, favouring the Congress, allowed India access to Kashmir. The 1965 war exposed East Pakistan’s vulnerability due to its geography and distance from West Pakistan, a strategic flaw exploited by India. They manipulated Bengali sentiments, portraying them as victims in the new Pakistan. The isolation of East Pakistan, political missteps and lack of defensive resources were capitalized upon. The 1971 war, imposed by India on flimsy grounds of refugee influx, violated international agreements. This war led to the emergence of Bangladesh, which, despite tariff relief and economic progress, remained plagued by political instability. India, having experienced the effectiveness of terrorism and subversion during this conflict, adopted it as a policy tool for future dealings with Pakistan. This shift in strategy continues to shape regional dynamics and highlights the complex challenges Pakistan faces in maintaining stability and addressing historical vulnerabilities.
Hence forth terrorism is state tool of Indian military strategy. On the western border of Pakistan, Afghanistan became the hotbed of terror activities ever since SAUR revolution. Contrary to today’s critics, Pakistan had no choice but get involved as flood of refugees were poring in since 1975 and battle against soviets was raging. Actual ground realties of that time can not be perceived sitting in a drawing room fifty year down the line. Fighters were inducted from world over against Soviets offering money or invoking religious sentiments of Muslim youth. Post soviet withdrawal, conflict between Afghan factions further nurtured youth to pick up arms. The scenario after 9/11 turned yesterdays Mujahids in to terrorists. Multiple power groups are now ruling Kabul in second Taliban regime. A loose governance as a result of tribal supremacy in various regions. The governess voids yielded space to the terrorist organization in various regions of Afghanistan, especially in adjoining Pakistan. It engulfed religious quarters in Pakistan where Madrassas became hotbed of recruitment.
There are almost 77 terrorist organizations in the world, registered by UN and mostly it is estimated, over 50 have their roots and linkages in Afghanistan. Afghan Taliban concluded confidential agreement with USA in Doha, the weapons and equipment were left undistorted in Afghanistan and was not given to Pakistan in spite of remaining their ally for over 70 years. This equipment and weaponry are now being used by the terrorist groups against Pakistan and other neighbouring countries. Pakistan is a prime target, of not only TTP But also other anti Pakistan groups being sponsored by various international intelligence agencies for their own strategic objectives. TTP itself is anti-government anti-Pakistan organization though they claim they want to create a Shariah government in Pakistan. It is all eyewash as they are being controlled, coordinated, funded and technically supported by the enemies of Pakistan, especially RAW. The availability of high-tech equipment, Internet and special communication has eased their task. The terrorists always have time and space in their favour. This tactical advantage is being exploited by terrorists. Post-US withdrawal Taliban are not only obliged to them but also not in a position to control them.
Complexities of terrorism against Pakistan have undergone a sea change due to multiple factors, like global strategic milieu and regional power struggle. The world is undergoing into a divide, North South, between China, Russia on one side, USA and EU, Japan and Australia on the other. The war in Ukraine has to end soon after Trump takes over as President. US and EU funding is going to dry up forcing Zelensky to relent. Same is in Gaza as there will be new challenges in Middle East. Israel’s Grand plan is already unveiled. Though Israel and Hamas ceasefire has come into effect but it is fragile. There are serious issues. Trump era is expected to facilitate Israel against Hamas and Iran but Hamas is not dead. There is a possibility of a new war theatre to emerge. The most probable scenario is that it will be Iran and towards South, Asia. Probable it will be proxy war to create war like scenario against Pakistan through Taliban duly cultivated by India and allied terrorist groups. Iran will be under pressure under Trump.
Pakistan faces significant challenges due to its strategic importance and its historical role in supporting Bangladesh, which shifted the regional balance of power. Indian media portrays India as victorious in Afghanistan, while the Taliban, influenced by both the United States and China, complicate the geopolitical landscape, increasing the likelihood of the TTP being used to pressure Pakistan’s western borders. Simultaneously, India, aspiring to be a global superpower, grapples with internal fragility stemming from social, religious, and ethnic divisions. Tensions with China persist, particularly over the $1 trillion Yarlung Tsangpo Dam in Chinese territory, which could reshape the Tibetan Plateau and affect India and Bangladesh. In response, India has pledged opposition and launched $11 billion in counter-projects. Additionally, regional instability in Southeast India and the potential use of TTP as an Indian proxy to destabilize Pakistan further exacerbate the situation, making Pakistan’s strategic response crucial.
Efforts may be made to draw China into conflicts in the West by India and the US, harming both China’s and Pakistan’s strategic interests. Pakistan and Iran remain particularly vulnerable. In this scenario, Pakistan must avoid involvement in new conflicts. A surge in terror activities is expected to counterbalance Indian losses in the East, while economic challenges and political instability exacerbate Pakistan’s vulnerabilities. A tactical withdrawal plan against Indian and Western pressures is crucial to rebuild strength. Revamping the economy and stabilizing politics must take priority. Diplomacy with the Taliban, paired with strategic incentives, can help counter Indian influence, while groups like the TTP must be firmly dealt with to deny them any space. While negotiations are vital, the timing and the parties involved are critical. The TTP, being an amalgam of vested interests, offers no viable path for dialogue, ensuring Pakistan remains pivotal in shaping regional stability.
—The author is a Brigadier Retired, a decorated officer with 32 years of active combat experience, 30 years in corporate sector as MD/COO. A column writer, Researcher and TV analyst.
(tariqkhalil21@gmail.com)
