IT seems that the “genie” of global “geopolitics” is “lingering” in the Indo-Pacific region due to which conflicting “geo-security” is gaining momentum. It is feared that the tug-of-war is going to be converted into a war of survival through the South China Sea, Taiwan, building of military bases, joint drills and efforts of Small Islands land maximum grabbing. Unfortunately, in the mad arms race and military misadventure, the Philippines would be the next scapegoat of western imperialism and hegemonic obsession. Even India has just joined this mad race by providing the Barh Moss Missile System to the Philippines. Thus the “US Military Complex Theory” is rigorously pursuing “China’s Containment” or China’s Economy Peak” Theories in the region through the help of its regional allies.
Anti-China forces are plugging their resources to form a formidable military bloc to dictate their own terms in the region. The policy makers of AUKUS (Australia, UK and US) are now considering its strategic expansion and seriously working with Japan through a security pact as part of an extended effort to counter China’s military and naval capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region. The US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s summit in Washington considered Japan’s possible future membership in AUKUS advanced capabilities projects. Whereas, China has called the AUKUS pact dangerous and warned it could spur a regional arms race.
Most of the regional security experts termed this move as alarming which would further turn into an “Asian NATO,” raising concerns over heightened militarism in Japan and potential destabilization in the region. Critical analysis reveals that the expansion of AUKUS would be on “pillar two,” which commits the members to jointly developing quantum computing, undersea, hypersonic, artificial intelligence and cyber technology. However, it has meaningful posturing and signalling encircling China.
Japan would be the first country to join in the pact. Ironically, anti-China’s regional countries and the western international community are badly ignoring the genuine security concerns over the risk of nuclear proliferation. Conversely, it would escalate the arms race in the Asia-Pacific and “terminal” to regional peace and stability. China is gravely concerned about it. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning termed it as exclusive groupings and stock bloc confrontation. She rightly pinpointed that Japan in particular needs to earnestly draw lessons from history and stay prudent on military and security issues.
Obviously, the US has been pushing to invite more countries to join in “pillar two” with the purpose of enhancing AUKUS’ influence, serving the goal of implementing its Indo-Pacific strategy and maintaining its hegemony. Moreover, by encouraging more countries such as South Korea and the Philippines to join AUKUS and other US-led small cliques, the US aims to create various coalitions to contain China. These efforts are made with a purpose of gaining an upper hand in the strategic competition with China.
Japan’s possible entry into AUKUS stems from its close ties with the US and ambitions for bolstering its military capabilities. However, this move raises multifaceted concerns. While it could stimulate Japan’s defense sector, it also risks exacerbating militaristic tendencies domestically and expanding AUKUS into an Asian equivalent of NATO. Furthermore, the focus on advanced military technology within AUKUS amplifies regional anxieties about nuclear proliferation and instability, prompting widespread apprehension among neighbouring countries.
It could also exacerbate the risks of arms race and confrontation in the region, particularly when it interferes in heated issues such as those in the South China Sea or Taiwan. It expects that Japan and Canada are in line to join the pillar two section of the AUKUS agreement by the end of 2024 or early 2025, and the participants will sign up for extensive collaboration in military technology. The AUKUS alliance has been actively seeking to broaden its influence by expansion, with the overarching objective of transforming itself into a mini-NATO in Asia.
As Australia, one of the core components of AUKUS has been equipping nuclear powered vessels as well as manufacturing and deploying missiles, the military alliance is aiming to leverage Australia’s geographical location to achieve its strategic goals. AUKUS hopes that if the US and the West were to engage in military actions against China, Australia can play the role of a vanguard. The bloc is trying to bring strategically important countries in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as countries that may have conflicts with China, into this small group. The goal is to form a NATO-like alliance in Asia to ultimately serve as a deterrent against China.
Regardless of the US presidential election outcome, the US has consistently exerted pressure on China, and its strategy to contain China’s development has remained unchanged. Since its inception, AUKUS has been a source of controversy, both internationally and within the alliance. Australian unions have shown fierce resistance against plans for a new submarine base, which was one of the major deals of the AUKUS security pact. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin labelled it as a typical “Cold War mentality” and a move that opens a Pandora’s Box, which will seriously impact regional and global peace and security.
In summary, the US, the UK and Australia should listen to the call of the international community and regional countries and stop pursuing bloc politics and confrontation, stop putting their selfish geopolitical agenda above nuclear non-proliferation obligations. It fears that AUKUS’ introducing group politics and Cold War confrontation into the Asia-Pacific region will pose unprecedented threats and challenges to the region’s prosperity and stability.
—The writer is Executive Director, Centre for South Asia & International Studies, Islamabad, regional expert China, BRI & CPEC & senior analyst, world affairs, Pakistan Observer.
Email: mehmoodulhassankhan@yahoo.com
