Tariq Khalil
GATHERING clouds on the subcontinent. It is a
strange world. A new matrix is developing in In
dian and Pacific Oceans. This is between India, USA and Japan. In this milieu of Coronavirus pandemic, nobody has noticed Japan is stealthily improving its military prowess and with over 250,000 standing army. As Japan’s constitution does not allow raising of army, it is in the name of defence force, Japan now ranked 6th in the world with the largest paraphernalia of high-tech technology based weapons systems. Newly inducted supersonic missiles are superior to even Chinese new high technology weapon system. Aircraft Carrier is also being inducted ostensibly for self defence. Last September Indian Defence Minister visited Tokyo and they negotiated closer defence cooperation between the two countries and also technology transfer. They also agreed to continue military exercises not only in the Indian Ocean along with USA but also ground-based exercises. Japan is also collaborating in the transfer of technology to India.
This cooperation is being enhanced with a view to making India another pivot to ensure closer cooperation against China in the Indo-Pacific Ocean and also in the Indian Ocean. This is the area through which the US sea-trade worth $3 trillion flows. Similarly, major Chinese sea-trade also passes through it and its oil imports are taken care of. Indian Ocean, Malacca Straits and the Pacific Ocean are key areas of future strategic tangle. The Japanese concern is no more North Korea, it is now China. Japan views China as a growing military threat to herself in the near future. It is where USA, Japan and Indian interests meet. Although after the Marshall Plan, Japanese Constitution does not permit spending more than 1% of GDP on defence, yet during Mr. Abbys as prime minister the defence budget of Japan has been growing steadily. Last year it was 1.16% of the GDP and it is expected to rise to 1.36 % in 2021 and will grow further in the coming years. It must be noted that keeping in view Japan’s GDP it is a huge amount. On the other side, USA expects India as and Japan to contain China.
India likes to have Japanese technology and its cooperation to modernise Indian armed forces, in the weapon systems, and also increase its influence beyond the Indian Ocean. It is interesting to note that bulk of the preparation of India will not be used against China but eventually directed against Pakistan. This is where Pakistan’s concern crops up. India’s effort is to capitalise on the technology being offered by Japan, especially in the field of missiles as Japan has been able to manufacture one of the most sophisticated and supersonic ship-to-ship and ground-to-ground missiles and recently introduced in its defence force. Reportedly, it is rated now superior to Chinese and its stealth capability can avoid any counter measures. In the same vain, Japanese island of Maga Salima has been converted as US Base beside GAM. Land-based bases are preferred over ships as they can be defended at less cost and easy damage control while the Aircraft Carriers are expensive to maintain. In the Indian Ocean, task is given to India under strategic partnership, Indo-Pacific term is coined. Andaman and Nicobar islands are converted in 2017 into big unified base involving three forces, beside Indian Ocean Unified Command, not under Navy but also Air Force and Army combined task forces. They are reporting to Joint Command Delhi and are not under Navy. First time area of operation is extended up to China Sea beyond India’s sphere to contain China.
The United States fully encourages Japan to be part of this chain, as it is part of US strategy to create containment against China. India is also link in the chain. Modi during US visit affirmed. But, confronting China head on, India has qualms. Its multibillion dollar trade and dependence on Chinese raw material makes Modi restless. Already, to dump Pakistan Modi’s actions against Pakistan have caused huge damage and dent to Indian economy. To counter Modi’s USA moves Maldives Island is converted as a military base by the Chinese. In case of open hostilities even Gwadar or other ports, may be used. And for that matter Pakistan’s role will be important, not only from defence point of view only but also as deterrence. Thus in the containment of China, in case sea lanes are threatened CPEC is extremely important. It is here India-USA interests meet and Alis Wells’ latest parting speech criticising China on this issue and loans to Pakistan is very meaningful. Though China has strongly rebutted this onslaught by USA, Indian attack threats are real and can’t be ignored. It will be proper aggression, no false flag, in Gilgit-Baltistan. LOC is already being heated up.
Recent passing of a law moved by two Congressmen, one Democrats and the other Republican, removing major Chinese Companies from the listing of New York Stock Exchange is a major economic strategic move to contain China. Immediate hit will come on Ali Baba and one more. More than thirty Chinese companies may be hit. Chinese are going to retaliate in a big way. This may lead to sanctions against these companies affecting all other countries including Pakistan. India and Japan will be under pressure to follow. Post COVID 19 further hit the economies. Pakistan will be affected both in economic terms but also strategically. Beside physical pressure on the LOC, impact on the CPEC cannot be ruled out. USA and EU are likely to make fake noises, as USA needs Pakistan in Afghanistan, it may not support India openly but would look other way.
In a major move China has occupied a large area, Fingerhills and Galwan Valley and Pangan Tso in Ladakh are contentious which China claims as disputed and India has not been able to physically react. This move effectively checkmates India to undertake any aggression in Gilgit-Baltistan through Ladakh. There is a dispute on a border road being built by China in Nepal as part of One Belt One Road Initiative (BRI), which India also claims. Modi here also has been forced to take a reconciliatory posture. There is a dispute on Sikkim border as well which so far has not been disputed. India is trying to avoid two-front confrontation, with China and Pakistan simultaneously. CDS command and Eastern command 14 Corps in quandary, going ahead mean extending confrontation. Not doing anything politically and strategically disastrous. A meeting, chaired by Defence Minister Raj Nath, was convened the other day to review the situation, which was attended by Chief of Defence Staff of India, Gen Bipon Rawat, and Services Chiefs. It was decided that road construction will go on. Chinese move strengthens CPEC defence. Similarly, Indian excesses in China Sea and Strait of Malacca are being checkmated.
This new emerging milieu calls for strengthening Pakistan naval assets with the help of not only China but also engage Russia and Turkey. Russia will be equally concerned on this emerging scenario but likely to remain neutral vis-a-vis India. They have billions of US dollars of trade pacts. Similarly review of policy from passive defence to deterrence needs to emerge, calling for new assets and strategy. Deterrence calls for strength, a key element of the policy of deterrence. It is wresting the initiative. So far we have been reactive. Pakistan must ensure it has friendly Japan. Our relations have always been good with Japan but in new milieu Indian strategy will be to wane it away, at least from friendship to neutrality. This calls for superb diplomacy by Pakistan.
—The writer, a retired Brigadier, is senior columnist, based in Lahore.
India-US-Japan developing matrix
