THE accidental firing of an Indian BrahMos missile that crashed in Mian Channu, Pakistan, on March 9, 2022, posed a significant mortal danger to the South Asian strategic stability.
This incident highlighted the fragility of India’s nuclear security in a region where both nations possess nuclear capabilities.
Such misfires can escalate tensions, leading to miscalculations and an unintended conflict, thereby increasing the risks of an armed confrontation.
By all means, this event, which requires a fair transparency and accountability, highlighted India’s existing operational flaws that brew challenges and the precarious balance of power in South Asia, leveraging profound implications for regional security and stability in South Asia.
The incident, in which India launched a BrahMos missile into Pakistani territory, raised significant concerns regarding military protocols and negligence. The situation highlighted the potential risks of incompetence in military operations, especially in a region with nuclear capabilities. Undeniably, in many ways, India’s BrahMos missile misfiring undermined South Asian strategic stability. Fundamentally, the event raised concerns about the operational safety and command protocols of missile systems in India, exposing the nuclear fragility contributing to instability in an already volatile geopolitical landscape of South Asia. Moreover, the Indian investigation– regarding the BrahMos missile incident has acknowledged operational negligence–raises significant concerns about the country’s vulnerable nuclear safety affecting regional stability, also demanding the importance of maintaining stringent safety protocols.
As per the Indian official stance, the BrahMos missile was launched from a site near Ambala that landed approximately 124 kilometres away in Mian Channu, Punjab, Pakistan. Incidentally, the nuclear-capable ground assault missile did not carry a warhead. It represents a critical incident proving that even a slight error in an already volatile environment could have had severe consequences for regional security, thereby escalating tensions between the two South Asian nuclear powers.
Interestingly, the IAF claimed that the unintentional fire happened because the BrahMos missile’s combat connections remained attached to its junction box. Yet, the International nuclear experts have expressed skepticism towards India’s official statement regarding the accidental firing of the BrahMos missile into Pakistan. They argue that a technical malfunction sounds insufficient to explain such a serious incident, questioning the implications of a missile being fired involuntarily, especially considering the potential for catastrophic outcomes.
Lt General Khalid Kidwai (Retd), Advisor National Command Authority (NCA), categorically rejected the Indian stance by stating that the missile launch was no accident. In September, 2022, while addressing a workshop on strategic stability in South Asia, co-orgaisaed by the Centre of International Strategic Studies (CISS),Islamabad, and the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS), London, he said, “The custodial controls of India’s large triad of the nuclear arsenal have now fallen firmly in the hands of an extremist fundamentalist leadership, “while adding that the “toxic mix of poisonous ideology and custody of nuclear weapons’’ was posing a serious threat to strategic stability in South Asia.
India’s assertion of it being an “undeliberate error” has been met with demands for transparency and a joint investigation from Pakistan, which underscores the international community’s concern about missile safety protocols and the potential for escalation in regional tensions. Further, the incident has potentially undermined India’s global credibility, especially in light of the risk of escalation in conflict with Pakistan. Seemingly, with a mala fide intention, India had deliberately done it.
Obviously, the event drew a fatal impact on the strategic stability in South Asia, which refers to the idea that while the presence of nuclear weapons between India and Pakistan theoretically deters large-scale war, it can paradoxically incentivize smaller, conventional conflicts due to the belief that neither side would escalate to a full nuclear exchange, potentially leading to increased tensions and risk of accidental escalation, accompanying a human catastrophe as exemplified by India’s BrahMos missile incident. The said incident posed grave risks to regional security, as they may prompt aggressive military postures undermining confidence building measures between the two nuclear nations.
Needless to say, Pakistan’s response to India’s BrahMos missile incident on March 9, 2022 demonstrated its strategic resilience, as the incident posed a significant threat to human life and property after a missile was inadvertently fired into its territory. This event endangered human life and property, highlighting concerns about nuclear negligence and the potential for catastrophic consequences in conflict zones. And above all, the said incident is widely regarded as a significant violation of international law. Notably, any inadvertent/advertent nuclear incident could pose a mortal danger to South Asian strategic stability.The neutral experts have called for thorough analysis to understand the implications and prevent such incidents in the future.
Against this backdrop, India must take several key lessons from a dangerous nostalgia of March 9, 2022, particularly given its status as a nuclear power. Firstly, the incident highlights the necessity of rigorous checks and protocols surrounding missile deployment, especially those capable of carrying nuclear warheads; enhanced technical safeguards and operational checks can prevent unintended launches. Secondly, it underscores the importance of establishing robust communication channels and confidence-building measures with neighbouring countries, especially Pakistan, to mitigate risks of escalation in tense situations. Finally, the situation emphasizes the need for continuous improvement and upgrading of military technology to ensure reliability and safety, thereby maintaining national security and international nuclear landscape given the fact that the said incident ‘’indicates a serious fundamental challenge to India’s adherence to international nuclear norms and obligations, especially concerning confidence-building measures, nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation.’’
—The writer, based in Pakistan, an independent IR & International Law analyst, also an expert in Conflict and Peace Studies (with special focus on Palestine, Kashmir), is member of European Consortium of Political Research (ECPR), including the Washington Foreign Law Society/American Society of International Law.
(rizvipeaceresearcher@gmail.com)
