Indo-Pak subcontinent: A perpetual state of war
FOR seventy-five years, the subcontinent is still unsettled. The world order has undergone a sea change, three times since the end of cold war. Emerging China and Russia is a new strategic reality. It is a multi-polar world now. The leadership in the subcontinent failed to resolve their bilateral disputes. The spirit of Simla Agreement is dead. Prior to partition, the Congress’s egoistic and myopic approach forced Muslims to unite, rethink and decide between perpetual slavery of Hindus or part ways. The partition and the rest are history. The Congress and its leadership for a long time perceived the partition as temporary. Congress asserted Pakistan not a viable state and will revert to reunite. The statements of Nehru, Gandhi, Maulana Azad, Subramanian and many others are on record.
Across the political landscape the then India believed in Akhund Baharat and ultimate Hindu rule. It was this mindset which prompted Mrs Indira Gandhi in 1971 to declare that we never accepted the partition and the creation of Pakistan was a mistake (Lok Sabha 27 Feb 1971). She made sure to support subversive elements in East Pakistan and ordered the invasion of East Pakistan to dismember Pakistan. The mindset still continues and is the basic agenda point of the RSS, the ideological fountain of the Modi Government. A recent statement of Jatender Singh in London is on record. Nevertheless, the world has changed, especially in the recent past so as geo-strategic matrix. The subcontinent is no exception.
The question is? Will the subcontinent continue to suffer in a state of perpetual war? The China Factor in Indian strategic planning didn’t exist before 1962. Indian leadership always hypothesized Pakistan number one enemy. Unfortunately, the Indian military and political leadership continue to threaten Pakistan, time has come to occupy Azad Jammu and Kashmir. They forget the strategic dynamics of the issue. China has territorial claims in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. It must be remembered that change is the only constant factor. The relationships are determined by the geostrategic and geoeconomic factors. Internal polity of a country impacts the geostrategic involvement in a given time and space. Nevertheless, certain fundamentals remain relevant. Unfortunately, the subcontinent has been plagued due to an unfinished partition agenda. The aggressive mindset of the Congress and now RSS to expand at the cost of its neighbours and accomplish the (self-perceived) dream of Akhund Bharat is a recipe for disaster for the subcontinent.
There’s no doubt that in the last decade India economically progressed spectacularly. It may soon surpass economies of Germany and Japan. But it has slipped in the human rights index. It has become the most oppressive country for the minorities, especially Muslims. Yet in the prevailing strategic environment, RSS leadership has failed to understand the dynamics of the rise and fall of nations. The armada of armies and weaponry is no guarantee of peace and supremacy of the country. The USSR crumbled and Europe declined. Germany and Japan ruined and re-emerged as economic powers from the ashes of World War-II. They are leading economies of the world once they had shed the interstate rivalries. It is now that they feel the security concerns in the changing post-Ukrainian war, the environment of multi-polar world where the USA is trying to hold on to its supremacy one way or the other. The war in Ukraine is nothing but a proxy war between Russia, USA and the NATO countries. In the regional and global context, President Xi’s visit to Russia and signing strategic alliance for the global issues, especially to find ways and means to reduce the financial hold of the USA through dollar, a currency to perpetuate sanctions and control the world financial system has immense implication for the emerging world order. Thus a need to find an alternative to dollar. BRIC currency idea is floated. It has triggered a great debate within America on the decline of the dollar. With more than a $33 trillion deficit in the American budget the decline of the dollar may trigger great recession or even default. Irrespective of its border disputes China and India are engaged in trade which is more than 146 billion. Both the countries understand the necessity of engaging economically for the benefit of more than 3 billion people.
Where do Pakistan and India stand is a question? The legacy, the unfinished agenda of partition as far as Kashmir is concerned and similarly the illegal occupation of the state of Junagarh and water are major flashpoints. The lack of trust between the two countries is also an important factor. RSS ideology, its agenda on Kashmir and treatment of Muslim minorities are criticized internationally. The boggy of terrorism is a dead theme. India is the supreme perpetuator of terrorism. The behaviour of the Indian Foreign Minister towards Pakistan Foreign Minister at SCO meeting was abhorring and has been condemned world over. Pakistan tried to open a window but J Shanker failed to rise as a statesman.
The mismanagement and political polarization within the country, wherein the economy has noose-dived to a dangerous level. Support the Indian leadership to subversive elements is more aggressive. Their threatening posture on Kashmir is a serious concern. Yet, should the existing state of affairs continue? Both countries must examine the changing geopolitical and geostrategic environment in the world and its reversion to multi-polar power centres. In this scenario the developments in Ukraine-Russia war, the world unannounced is in the grip of the beginning of the Third World War. Russia and China both have indicated the policy of openness and connectivity with the West. In no way they indicate that they want the escalation of tension globally. However, the US agenda is different.
The South Asian region, notwithstanding the disputes, both countries have to look inward whether they should allow perpetuation of tension and war-like situation at the cost of the suffering of the billion plus people of the subcontinent. For seven decades we are at loggerhead, whereas it is an established fact historically that dialog is always the best option. The leadership of both countries should look inward and initiate such measures to inch towards the dialogue notwithstanding the outstanding issues, keeping their sovereign claims intact. We have an example of South East Asia, wherein Indonesia as a big brother realized and we see where today the South Asian countries are. They are economically much better than they were 50 years ago. There can be the SAARC revival, or under the auspices of SCO a framework to be discussed and dialogued to ensure both countries Pakistan and India along with its smaller neighbours move towards a region to spell peace, prosperity and wellbeing of the people. Wars do not and never solve the problems rather create additional problems. Further, jointly tackle the menace of terrorism which is now gripping the world as well as the cancer of corruption. If you look inward, India will be a greater beneficiary as it cannot achieve its aim without a peaceful subcontinent. Out of 29 states, 22 states are at war with the centre and there is active insurgency in 17 states and about forty percent of its districts are not under the government control. It is said that leaders who do not learn from history, history forces them to repeat it. India, being the bigger country, has to initiate moves. In Pakistan, a stable elected government is a key.
—The author is a decorated Brigadier Retired, with 32 years of active military service and thirty years of corporate and industry experience and a senior defence analyst and researcher.
