THE 12-Day Israel-Iran War ended with unexpected outcomes.
Seeing the military might of Israel backed by a dedicated US support, it was apparent that Iran will be shattered to an inconceivable level and Israel will be the ultimate victor and an unchallengeable power in the Middle East. Besides, under the severe economic and military sanctions for over two decades, Iran had no chance to withstand the military might of the Israeli state, which gets military, economic and political support of the US and entire Europe. Moreover, the entire Middle East remained unfriendly to Iran ever since the introduction of Islamic Revolution there in 1979. In a way, this 12-Day War was between Iran and the ‘Rest’. At the conclusion of this brief and intense technology- driven war, Iran came out as a victorious state; an emerging power of the Middle East.
The victory of Iran against Israel and the ‘Rest’ can be attributed to five major factors: (a) a dedicated national resolve of the Iranian nation, that withstood all regional and global sanctions and challenges (b) a visionary, honest and selfless leadership that had the trust of Iranian nation, (c) a teams of an enthusiastic, innovative and farsighted scientists and their new scientific innovative discoveries in the field of future warfare, (d) a dedicated and highly professional military, having multilayered leadership traits and (e) the unwavering belief system of Iranian nation on Divine Power of Allah Almighty.
Upon the unexpected decree of ceasefire by President Trump, following Iranian missile attacks on American military bases; Al Udeid Air Base-Doha, Qatar, the political and military strategists were surprised. After these Iranian attacks, it was expected that the US Military would greatly retaliate on Iran with heavy military, economic and human losses. Indeed, the US announced such an all-out attack after bombing three Iranian nuclear facilities. But, unexpectedly that did not happen and President Donald Trump unilaterally announced an immediate ceasefire. Why President Trump took a U-Turn at a decisive stage; is the sole and ultimate question, still remaining unanswered.
The scholars of security studies have two opinions in response to this question. A group of military strategists believe that the entire Israel-Iran war was a stage-managed event or at least US attack on Iranian sites and Iranian missile attack at Al Udeid Air Base in Doha was a preconceived arrangement. This analysis seems unreasonable since the Israeli attack on Iran was a combination of surprise, innovation, intelligence based and highly destructive in nature. This assessment and opinion seems quite away from the ground realities and decades of enmity between Israel and Iran and Iran and the United States. The other group of international relations and security studies has quite different opinions. Their assessments of the unfolding of this 12-day war have three fundamental dimensions and two supplementary assertions. A), before the onset of this Israel-Iran war, Tel Aviv and Washington undermined the Iranian national and military potentials and perceived that Iran will surrender in a matter of days to the military might of Israel.
Killing of top-tier Iranian military leadership and scientists and destruction of key war munition sites and launchers in the opening phase of this surprise war greatly complemented this hypothesis. Nevertheless, Iranian leadership reformed and regrouped and immediately retaliated by attacking Israeli key cities which surprised the Israeli military; created an alarm and chaos among the Israeli masses. The intensity of Iranian missile attacks kept on increasing with each passing day which bewildered Israelis to a level of national insecurity, uproar in major cities and frustration among the top tier Israeli political and military leadership. B) This political and military chaos in Israel compelled the Israeli Prime Minister to reach out to the United States, asking President Trump for help against Iran. Indeed, Iran was running short of requisite war munitions at one hand and facing widespread opposition and criticism within Israel, challenging his immoral rule over the Zionist State. These threats could have ended his prolonged rule in Israel. C) Making use of the Israeli lobby in the US, he compelled President Trump to attack Iran; in a way Netanyahu was able to drag the United States in this Israel-Iran war against the wishes of American masses and law-makers. US intelligence had already estimated the Iranian national resolve and its military power (from June 13 to June-21, 2025 retaliations), thus only decided to hit abandoned nuclear sites with full force.
Though Iranian losses from American attacks were very minor, yet President Trump faced severe criticism at home and expected the serious consequences and threat of retaliation from Iran. Iranian retaliations to US attacks were measured, symbolic and pre-informed. But, these attacks were warning shots to US and Arab monarchs that had hosted US military bases on their soil which directly threaten regional security in general and Iranian security in particular.
Brokering an immediate ceasefire by President Trump had further two reasons: a) Iran could have attacked all American bases in the Middle East through direct missile attacks and through its proxies, surrounding the entire Middle Eastern region, b) the Arab masses were getting perturbed by the on-going uncertainties and chaos in the region. Unlike Arab elites, the masses of the Middle East have understood that, it is not a war for the safety of Arabs; rather it is war and conspiracy against their sovereignty and nationalism.
Indeed, Arab masses and intellectuals have clearly understood that this war aims at bringing the entire Middle East under Israeli and American influence and Iran is resisting their imperialistic designs. This is the time for the Arab world to ensure three things: (a) stop outsourcing and leasing their sovereignty, (b) reconcile and reorient their blind faith on the West and Abraham Accord and (c) unite under the Flag of Islam through a larger Muslim Unity.
— The writer is Professor of Politics and IR at International Islamic University, Islamabad.
(drmkedu@gmail.com)
