SOON after the martyrdom of Ismail Haniyeh, Israel has become increasingly bold, daring Iran to retaliate despite the risk of response from Iranian proxies or Iran itself. This heightened aggression has led several countries to issue travel advisories, urging their citizens to leave the Middle East, with particular emphasis on Iran.
Western leaders publicly mourn the violence against civilians caused by bombings, airstrikes and sniper attacks, but their actions suggest a deeper, more strategic objective. Their focus seems to extend beyond simply dismantling Hamas, Hezbollah, or the Houthis. They may be aiming to undermine the economic and military potential of rapidly developing Middle Eastern nations. These countries have made remarkable progress and are now seen as threats due to their growing economic power, which could potentially translate into military strength.
For instance, the United Arab Emirates has seen its GDP rise from $80 billion in 2000 to approximately $520 billion in 2023, establishing itself as a major global business hub thanks to advancements in infrastructure, trade and tourism. Qatar’s economy has grown from $16 billion to about $270 billion, fueled by its extensive natural gas reserves and investments in sports and tourism. Saudi Arabia’s GDP surged from $160 billion to $1.3 trillion, driven by its Vision 2030 plan to diversify its economy away from oil dependency. Oman’s GDP increased from $20 billion to around $90 billion through diversification in tourism and logistics, while Bahrain’s GDP rose from $12 billion to about $47 billion, positioning itself as a key regional financial center.
With the Middle East’s economic rise, the next perceived threat could be the nuclear capabilities of Iran and Pakistan. This concern is not unfounded, as the Israeli Prime Minister has openly expressed a desire to neutralize the nuclear capabilities of these countries in various public statements. Additionally, there are significant concerns regarding Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. International officials, including former US President Barack Obama, have raised alarms about the potential risks of nuclear proliferation and the need for stringent security measures to prevent these weapons from falling into the wrong hands. Similar concerns have been echoed by Israeli officials and European leaders, emphasizing the need for enhanced international cooperation to secure nuclear materials in Pakistan.
Iran’s progress in nuclear technology is also alarming. As of 2024, Iran has significantly advanced its uranium enrichment program, deploying more sophisticated centrifuges and expanding its stockpile of enriched uranium. Intelligence reports suggest that Iran has accumulated enough low-enriched uranium to potentially fuel several nuclear weapons if further enriched. The timeline for producing sufficient fissile material for a nuclear weapon could be as short as a few weeks.
Efforts by the United States and its allies to deter Iran from developing nuclear weapons have been largely unsuccessful. However, should the conflict in the Middle East escalate, it could provide the US and its allies an opportunity to enhance their military capabilities to respond swiftly to any indications of Iran moving towards weaponization and to prevent Iran from achieving nuclear status.
In anticipation of possible retaliatory actions, Israel has already taken several measures to protect itself and its allies. The recent high-profile eliminations of key figures from Hamas and Hezbollah are part of this strategy. Israel, with support from its allies, is prepared to launch a substantial assault on Iran’s military and economic assets to ensure that Iran does not pose a threat to Israel or its interests in the region.
The United States, the UK and other Western powers have further strengthened Israel’s position with advanced weaponry and logistical support. They have also provided diplomatic backing at international forums, advocating for Israel’s right to self-defence. If necessary, these powers may even engage directly in the conflict to counter Iran and diminish its military and economic capabilities.
In a show of solidarity and readiness, the United States has deployed additional military assets to the region. The USS Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group has replaced the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, maintaining a robust U.S. presence and ensuring rapid response capabilities. Alongside the naval assets, the US has positioned more fighter jets and missile defense-capable cruisers and destroyers to enhance regional deterrence and protect U.S. forces stationed throughout the Middle East. Currently, the US has approximately 40,000 troops deployed in the region, with additional forces arriving to support imminent operations.
Ironically, the combined military capabilities of all Muslim countries are insufficient to counter Israel’s formidable strength, particularly with the backing of the USA and Western allies. This leaves these countries effectively paralyzed, unable to mount a meaningful challenge to Israel’s military prowess. The dire situation has resulted in a troubling scenario where the Muslim world seems indifferent to the suffering of Palestinian civilians, unable to effectively respond to the humanitarian crisis.
If Israel were to decide to completely devastate the Middle East, including Iran and Pakistan, and neutralize Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities, it is conceivable that no earthly force, save for divine intervention, could prevent such an outcome. Therefore, it is in the interest of the Middle East, Iran, and Pakistan to avoid providing any pretext for further aggression by Israel and its allies, although it is acknowledged that Israel and its allies may act without needing a pretext.
—The writer is a former Press Secretary to the President.
(qamarbashirepw@gmail.com)
