NEEDLESS to say, amid the ongoing war in Gaza, world is profoundly concerned about new phase of escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran. Iran’s last week attack on Israel —via hundreds of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and missile—in response to Israel’s strike against an Iranian diplomatic facility in Syria which killed several senior IRGC officers— posits a glaring indication that if the ongoing conflict between Tel Aviv and Tehran remains diplomatically unresolved, then a dangerous situation — cannot be ruled out about a regional war in the Middle East — which is already tensed because of the ongoing unjust Israeli War in Gaza. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) called it the operation– True Promise. To avoid a regional war, UN’s Secretary General Antonio Guterres’ slogan—step back from the brink –holds a paramount significance.
Iran made a retaliatory attack on Israel as it launched the barrage of 300 drones and missiles on Saturday thereby sparking a regional conflict. As for the Iranian stance, it has invoked UN Charter’s Article 51 regarding the use of force in self-defence. According to the Iran’s permanent representative in the UN, ‘’Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus’’. Whereas the reports circulating in the western media suggest that an Israeli response to Iran’s retaliatory attack may be “imminent,” a source told NBC News as Israel weighed its next steps and after a meeting of the country’s war cabinet.
Seeds of confrontations: As for Israeli past strategy– ranging from cyber attacks and assassinations to the very drone strikes—which damaged the centrifuge parts plant near Karaj, as well as another cyber attack that interrupted operations at Natanz– Israel-linked plots have targeted Iran and its nuclear programme for years. Any assessment of Israel’s capabilities must start with its years-long covert campaign to sabotage Iran’s nuclear sites. Israel has launched a series of cyber attacks against Iran, including the 2010 Stuxnet and 2012 Flame strikes that respectively, destroyed hundreds of centrifuges at the Natanz enrichment site and infected other nuclear facilities. It has also assassinated at least five Iranian scientists, including Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the touted father of Iran’s covert nuclear weapons program.
Until recently, US and British naval attacks on Houthi military sites in Yemen have exasperated the already fragile situation in the Middle East and can potentially ignite a tinderbox by compromising international trade and navigation. Instead of resolving multiple crises in the Middle East including the Gaza War through negotiations and dialogue, both the US and UK Administrations opted to attack Houthi targets in Yemen with warships launching Tomahawk Cruise Missiles and fighter jets in 16 sites including the capital, Sanaa, and the Red Sea port of Hodeidah.
Such strikes marked a dangerous escalation and an expansion of conflict in the Middle East with reprisal attacks from Houthis expected and regional economic shocks becoming inevitable. Still, the UN fears that Israel may target the Iranian nuclear sites. Analysts argue Iran’s missile barrage has sent a message that it is willing to orchestrates rules of engagement regarding its clandestine war with Israel. “It’s a warning shot saying if Israel breaks the rules there are consequences,” said Magnus Ranstorp, strategic adviser at the Swedish Defence University.
Reponses of other states & regional geopolitics: China is “deeply concerned” about escalating tensions in the Middle East after Iran launched drones and missiles in a retaliatory strike against Israel, a foreign ministry spokesperson said on Sunday. The UK deployed RAF jets and refuelling tankers to the Middle East on Saturday to help intercept drone attacks. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: “I condemn in the strongest terms the Iranian regime’s reckless attack against Israel . . . The UK will continue to stand up for Israel’s security.” All the more, Moscow is intended to achieve its long-term strategic objectives in the Middle East, it must cultivate a close working relationship with Tehran. Several Middle Eastern countries including Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon announced closures of their airspace as Iran launched drones and missiles. Moreover, both Israel and Iran also imposed restrictions on airline traffic over their airspace. Many airlines are now avoiding Iranian air space. Troop reinforcements from Israel’s ally, the US, headed to the region on Saturday, with fears of wider war growing.
Call for a restraint strategy: United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized it was time to “step back from the brink” as a chorus of world leaders urged restraint. Needless to say, US troops/forces stationed —in Iraq and Syria, accompanied by American warships in the region, were part of the effort to counter the Iranian attack, US officials said. That said, President Joe Biden has warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against launching new strikes on Iran. President Biden seems convinced that the US would not participate in any offensive actions against Iran but has privately said he fears that Netanyahu is trying to drag the US into a wider conflict, officials told NBC News. Notably, Russia, Germany and Britain urged countries in the Middle East to show restraint.
Nevertheless, the need of a bilateral restraint strategy by Tel Aviv and Tehran must be realigned and accompanied by a subtle compliance of a binding UNSC ceasefire resolution 2728 on the Israeli War in Gaza. Pakistan discerns these ominous fissures-cum-scary developments on the ME regional scene as the consequences of the breakdown of diplomacy, hence Pakistan Foreign Office said, “These also underline the grave implications in cases where the UN Security Council is unable to fulfil its responsibilities of maintaining international peace and security.” Hence, only through de-escalation and restraint can the maintenance of international shipping lanes be secured, peace in the Middle East ensured and proxy warfare avoided.
—The writer, an independent ‘IR’ researcher-cum-international law analyst based in Pakistan, is member of European Consortium for Political Research Standing Group on IR, Critical Peace & Conflict Studies, also a member of Washington Foreign Law Society and European Society of International Law. He deals with the strategic and nuclear issues.
Email: rizvipeaceresearcher@gmail.com
