INDIA and Pakistan have been two extremely hostile neighbors since the dawn of independence in 1947 and this hostility has been turned in two major wars and numerous border skirmishes resulting in deaths and destruction on both sides. Both countries are now armed to the teeth and possesses nuclear weapons in their arsenals.
Both countries now believe in the theory of “Mutually Assured Destruction” and believe that the nuclear threat will prevent future wars between the two. India and Pakistan both need to invest more in their human resource and put more money in education, health care and poverty alleviation to provide relief and comfort to their poor toiling masses. Ironically both countries are guilty of allocating the bulk of their resources to their defense budgets leaving very little for development and relief for the common man.
The BJP led by Narendra Modi has now secured its third consecutive term as the ruling party of India, and Pakistan now is in dire need to redefine and reassess its diplomatic, social and trade relations with India. As of today Pakistan is in a state of denial and the need for mending fences with India has not been given the priority that it deserves. The need of presenting an olive branch to our neighbor and recalibrating our hostile relations is now paramount and policy makers and leaders on both sides of the border need to give their full attention to a new beginning in relations between the two nuclear powered neighbors of South Asia.
In 2019 India went ahead to amend the constitution with the abrogation of article 370 thus altering the status of the disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir. Since then Pakistan has adopted a policy of total disregard or disconnect with India.
On the Kashmir policy of India Pakistan has lodged its protest on many international forums and tried to awaken the conscience of the world community to do their bit in pressurizing India on the issue of the Kashmir dispute with Pakistan.
Ironically the policy of isolating India has not worked at all and all pleas seem to have landed on deaf ears as far as the community of nations is concerned. The world community still treats India as their blue eyed boy and admires India as the biggest democracy in the world with a secular constitution. The USA has embraced India as a strategic partner and despite the diplomatic efforts of Pakistan the countries of the world continue their interactions and trade relations with India.
The Muslim countries of the Arabian Peninsula including Saudi Arabia have greatly increased trade and diplomatic ties with India. The Gulf Cooperation Council GCC and Turkey too have completely disregarded the violation of the UN resolutions on Kashmir and continue to increase trade and political relations with India. Immediately after the Indian action on Kashmir Narendra Modi was honored by the UAE with its highest civilian medal the Order of Zayed further cementing and reinforcing their growing trade and political relations. Saudi Arabia has pledged to invest more than 100 billion USD in India including the construction of one of the largest oil refineries in the world. USA and the European Union continue to make huge investments and continue their policy of accepting India as the dominant power in the region.
In reassessing our relations with India our policy planners must keep in mind that trade must be kept separate from politics and this has been practiced by many countries. China has major political differences with Taiwan but these political differences have not prevented trade between the two countries. 42% of exports from Taiwan find an eager market in China. Trade between India and China is over 118 billion USD when India and China are bitter enemies and have clashed many times.
This is ample proof that nations can maintain amicable trade relations despite political differences. Trade between India and Pakistan through other countries is hardly 2.4 billion USD when according to the World Bank trade between the two countries should easily exceed 37 billion USD. It is in the interest of both countries and more so in our interest to start direct trade relations immediately.Stopping trade or show of animosity will never force India t change its policy on Kashmir.
Trading and more people to people contacts and cultural exchange between the two countries will be in a greater interest of Pakistan and this change in policy could also compel India to the negotiating table. India today is in desperate need of easy access to the Central Asian Republics, Afghanistan and Iran and Pakistan can provide that access economically for Indian traders. Projects like the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline, the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline, and the Central Asia-South Asia (CASA-1000) project are vital, with Pakistan as a bridge. While India has sought an alternate route via the Chabahar Port in Iran, it is not a complete solution. India need Pakistan for an easy and economical access to Central Asia and this cooperation is vital for the geostrategic and economic interests of both countries.
Narendra Modi in his third term now heads a weak coalition Govt. who will now look for mending fences with all countries in the neighborhood because his anti-Pakistan speeches and Hindutva rhetoric did not win him a complete majority in Parliament. This new Govt. of the BJP will have to focus on resolving disputes with Pakistan and this has recently been hinted by the Foreign Minister of India S. Jaishankar and Pakistan should not allow this opportunity to go by.
The need of the hour is a comprehensive trade agreement with India a more liberal Visa policy, cultural exchange, religious tourism and people to people contacts. Such a change of direction initiated by Pakistan could possibly result in a dispute resolution mechanism, optimum banking channels and govt. to govt. or private business deals. The path forward requires courage, foresight, and a willingness to depart from entrenched positions in pursuit of a more promising future for both nations.
—The writer is Professor of History, based in Islamabad.
Email: tariq.aqil@headstart.edu.pk
