FLYING to the US over the past week, 30 hours of travel alone-time, gives one much time to think.
Foremost on the mind was the evolving situation between India and Pakistan.
We can all agree that a terrible incident took place in Pahalgam, and regardless of the history of the specific area, loss of innocent lives cannot be justified.
Having said that, it has been befuddling as to why Modi is showing so much restraint – no outright attack or even a surgical strike.
For all the bluster, I would have guessed that Modi’s response would have been swift.
Yet, here we are, almost two weeks later and nothing.
So, as I flew, I started penning all the various reasons that come to mind behind Modi’s slow response.
First, Modi is worried about being embarrassed.
I had surmised that given the huge disparity in military size and economic resources between the two countries, Modi would have been confident about his potential to achieve a quick success in a military response.
Yet, it did happen, and then it hit me.
Pakistan may have a much smaller army and a lot less resources, etc etc but Pakistan has shown itself to be very capable to respond to any military threat.
They have already shot down a drone, and let us not forget the lightning fast response on February 27, 2019 when Pakistan shot down an Indian MiG-21 and captured the pilot.
Hence, Pakistan may be smaller in military size and resources, but there is another marked difference that allows Pakistan to punch much higher than its weight: Pakistan’s military is battle hardened having been in a state of war for the past 50 years while India is not.
Pakistan has fought proxy wars, led to the dismemberment of a Super Power (USSR), fought enemies on the west and east, and internally dealt with nationalistic movements as well as terrorists.
That is a long resume of experiences and, perhaps, rightfully Modi is worried about being militarily embarrassed and has thus shifted all responsibility for the attack to his military chiefs by publicly directing them to make the decision.
Second, Modi has not been able to make a case that Pakistan is behind the attack.
Narrative building seems to be everything in the current day and age, and regardless of the blame throwing that started within hours of the attack, the world is simply not buying what Modi is selling.
Don’t take my word for it, Michael Kugelman, the Director or the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre, opined on X that there is a lack of “clarity about the culprit” behind the attack, possibly reducing the likelihood of a punishing response.
For once, the wind seems to favour Pakistan and it might have gained some credibility as a grown up in the region, not the kid that gets caught with its hands in the cookie jar.
Third, India has much more to lose economically.
India is an economic powerhouse in the world, with a large export oriented manufacturing base.
Any regional conflict will adversely impact its manufacturing as well as the exports.
On the other hand, Pakistan will feel the pinch a lot less since Pakistan’s largest source of revenues are remittances, which might actually go up in a time of conflict.
Overseas Pakistanis might send back more money for nationalistic reasons and in fact help boost the economy.
So India has a lot more to lose if instability raises its head in the region.
Finally, the world is not keen in accelerating a recession on the tails of a regional conflict.
Thanks to the new regime in DC, the world seems to be on the cusp of an economic recession.
While it is teetering on the edges, recession has not happened yet.
However, any conflict between the 2nd and the 5th largest nuclear powered nations of the world can certainly push the world over the edge, and the world probably is doing everything in its power to ensure that this does not come to pass.
There are other reasons that I can think of behind the reasons for a slow Modi response, that I am inclined to believe that first and foremost, Modi is worried about getting militarily embarrassed.
After all, the results of a conflict between a battle hardened military like Pakistan, and a military which has been prominently occupying forces are far from certain.
Having noted the above, we need to find a solution.
The massacre of innocent civilians cannot continue and the humane side of humanity has to prevail.
If anything, Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine and other such conflicts are continuing to show us that military occupation cannot suppress the power of self-determination.
Pakistan and India need to sit down and find a solution for the people of Kashmir.
It is always possible.
After all, there was much bad blood between Pakistan and Bangladesh since 1971, and diplomacy and statesmanship have finally brought about a thaw in the relationship between the two nations.
Pakistan should reach out to India, offer an olive branch and give Modi a graceful exit from talks of war.
—The writer is a former Senior Advisor to the Government and a sector development specialist. He is a member of the APP Think Tank and Pakistan’s Buddhist Heritage Promotion Ambassador for GTPL, a company under SIFC.
