THE horrific murder of innocent visitors in Baisaran, Pahalgam on April 22 has rightfully incited grief, fury and allegations, especially against Pakistan.
However, it is important to consider the larger context before joining the blame game.
The history of this blame game began with the 2001 Indian Parliament attack, when Indian media and government officials, without evidence, immediately blamed Pakistan to defame it amid global anti-terrorism efforts post 9/11.
The 2008 Mumbai attack followed a similar pattern, with India accusing Pakistan to isolate it as a supporter of terrorism and keep global focus on the attack.
With the rise of BJP under Modi, this pattern changed; terror attacks not only preceded elections but were exploited as face-saving tools amid domestic challenges.
Modi shifted the battlefield to Kashmir, escalating military tensions with a nuclear neighbour and seeking the right moment to revoke Article 370, which was part of his 2014 election manifesto.
India following the Uri attack in Kashmir Valley, not only pointed fingers towards Pakistan immediately without any evidence but also claimed to carry out the so-called “surgical strike” across the Line of Control.
The term surgical strike became a slogan of Modi, later used in his election campaigns in Uttar Pradesh in 2017.
It also proved helpful in diverting attention from social and economic tensions in India.
Modi had his surgical strike moment again before the upcoming Lok Sabah elections in 2019.
In both events, Pakistan called for independent investigation overlooked by India.
It aimed to internationalize Kashmir issue once again as a state sponsored terrorism and sets the ripe moment for India to carry out Israeli model of settler colonialism in Kashmir by revoking article 370.
Prior to Pahalgam incident, India was facing domestic pressure; its economy was facing slowing growth, there were huge protests in India over controversial Waqf Amendment Bill.
There was turbulence in Indian Illegally Occupied Kashmir as well where the BJP government failed to justify its biggest claims of normalcy following the revocation of Article 370.
The recent uprising started to grow from Jammu, the hub of Hindu majoritarian region.
Rajouri attack, Udhampur encounter, and Reasi Bus incident questioned the security failure of Indian government in Kashmir, a highly militarized region.
In this scenario, Pahalgam incident used as a sigh of relief to deflect attention, instantly accusing Pakistan for sponsoring terrorism.
There are also growing voices in India concerning Narendra Modi using Pahalgam attack to win elections in Bihar as he did post-Pulwama.
Narendra Modi used these planted incidents as an excuse to advance his election manifesto in letter and spirit.
Following the Pahalgam incident, Modi immediately suspended the Indus Water Treaty, which he had vowed to do in his 2019 election campaign, aiming to stop water flowing to Pakistan.
He repeatedly threatened to halt the Indus River’s flow, famously saying after the Uri attack, “Blood and Water cannot flow together at the same time.
” He reiterated this mantra during the post-Pahalgam military escalation, addressing the nation with the same words.
The Indus Water Treaty, a water-sharing agreement between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, survived the wars of 1965 and 1971.
It ensures Pakistan’s rights as a downstream riparian are protected.
According to Article III, India must allow the flow of all waters of the Western Rivers except for specific, limited uses permitted under the treaty, such as run-of-river hydroelectric power generation, residential use, non-consumptive use, and restricted agricultural use.
Pakistan initiated Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) proceedings on India’s Kishanganga and Rattle hydroelectric projects, which violates the clause of Indus Water Treaty while India objected its jurisdiction later on dismissed by PCA.
India offended by the legal steps taken by Pakistan and started sending vague letters to modify Indus Water Treaty.
India’s suspension of Treaty in the wake of Pahalgam attack exposes its hidden intentions to economically crippled Pakistan, as agriculture is the backbone of its economy.
As India unilaterally cannot alter or amend the treaty under Article XII, also highlighted by the World Bank President Ajay Banga.
Moreover, World Bank is the guarantor in the Indus Water Treaty.
This coercive diplomatic manoeuvring by India aims to tilt Indus Water in its favour.
India expedite planning and execution of projects on the Chenab, Jhelum and Indus rivers, three bodies of water in the Indus system that are designated primarily for Pakistan’s use.
In light of these developments, building dams must be Pakistan’s top priority in order to increase water storage capacity, guarantee the sustainability of agriculture and reduce the dangers related to any upstream water flow changes.
In the face of changing geopolitical concerns, such investments are essential for preserving national food security and economic stability.
These incidents are more than just historical anecdotes.
They illustrate how India’s approach towards Pakistan remains unchanged in all these incidents, using Pakistan as a scapegoat for distracting its public from domestic issues, executing its politically motivated actions to secure vote bank.
Pahalgam’s tragedy is more than just a news headline.
It serves as a sobering reminder that in South Asia, blame frequently takes the place of inquiry and narratives frequently triumph over nuances.
—The writer is Associate Director at the Centre for International Strategic Studies, AJK. (tahreembukhari1692@gmail.com)
