KASHMIR, the nuclear flash point, was again in the global limelight for the same old reasons.
This time, the crisis reached an unprecedented level of escalation when both states fired missiles at each other’s military bases.
One significant lesson learnt from this saga is that often the conceited and megalomaniac leaders become prisoners of their self-assumed strongman image which shrinks their strategic matrix.
In such scenarios, these leaders get driven to the edge of the chessboard with little left but the sword.
India’s Prime Minister Modi presented a textbook example of it during the recent crisis.
However, in an environment of near symmetry of power between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, this approach backfired and only made the doomsday clock tick faster.
PM Modi has gradually climbed the escalation ladder only to establish and preserve his strongman image which has now turned into a quagmire.
Starting with a small intrusion across the Line of Control in 2016 after the Uri attack, in 2019 he resorted to the use of the Indian Air Force (IAF) inside Pakistan’s territory but was humbled by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF).
Now, the IAF struck five different mosques inside Pakistan, under the Operation Sindoor which proved a disaster for them as they lost six aircraft, including three state-of-the-art Rafales and one Heron Drone within an hour of the aerial combat.
Due to PM Modi’s strategic myopia, both states have climbed up the escalation ladder.
The nuclear deterrence failed to stop him from deploying conventional forces against Pakistan unless the latter retaliated strongly to re-establish deterrence.
History serves us several examples of leaders who invested excessively in cultivating a grandiose image of themselves.
These leaders later became prisoners of their self-created public persona built on uncompromising strength or infallibility which deprives them of the option to pursue rational or peaceful choices.
Any deviation from that script comes with the risk of appearing weak.
This psychological entrapment creates a political cage and shrinks the space for flexible decision-making.
Iraq’s Saddam Hussein’s obstinate defiance in the lead-up to the 2003 Iraq War stemmed in part from the same dilemma.
His self-fashioned image as an unyielding Arab strongman left little room for diplomacy.
Argentina’s military junta under General Galtieri, desperate to revive its waning legitimacy and preserve the image of strength, launched the disastrous Falklands War in 1982.
In both scenarios, the leaders ended in humiliating defeats and their downfall was hastened, showing how the cultivation of invincibility might serve short-term political goals, but ultimately closes off diplomatic avenues, heightens the propensity for miscalculation and plunges states into deep crises nearly impossible to recover from.
PM Modi is now standing in the same queue.
Pakistan’s powerful response to Indian aggression has exposed the fragility of India’s strategic designs and reaffirmed the PAF’s operational superiority in the South Asian theatre.
Despite India’s apparent edge on paper, the outcomes of this conflict have proven that tactical precision and doctrinal clarity prevail over media spectacle and expensive equipment.
The recent crisis started with an attack inside the Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) which killed 26 tourists.
The event, which, keeping in view India’s reaction and seriousness to investigate, can best be called a false flag operation, brought the region to the edge of a nuclear war.
While the loss of innocent lives is condemnable, India’s response marked by a nationwide clamour for war between two nuclear-armed neighbours depicts that there is something fundamentally flawed with the collective consciousness of the Indian society.
This bellicose national behaviour stems from the country’s top leadership as its attributes gradually seep into the broader social and national fabric.
PM Modi’s strongman image has now become a liability, reducing his options to either aggression or political defeat.
After losing the parliamentary majority during last year’s elections, he gambled on conflict to reclaim political relevance.
However, this strategy has cost India dearly—militarily, diplomatically and morally.
After this misadventure, India’s military weaknesses have been exposed, denting its two-decade-long efforts to become a net security provider in the region.
Moreover, the Kashmir issue has again been internationalised and the Indian government’s mantra of the Kashmir issue being resolved has failed to withstand the test of reality.
Above all, the Indian government has to accept third-party mediation and dialogue with Pakistan.
The outcomes of this episode are clear.
Each act of aggression against Pakistan will be met with a calibrated and forceful response.
Also, it is high time for India to face the reality that an egoistic leader at the top threatens their future, and this defeat has given them a chance to look for an alternative and more rational leadership.
One should not forget the fact that those who refuse to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
—The writer is a Senior Research Associate at the Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS), Lahore. (info@casslhr.com)
