DESPITE the ongoing trade and tariff war, China has emerged as a winner due to its prudent diplomatic moves and resilient economic policies, which have effectively mitigated the global socio-economic, geopolitical and geostrategic fallout caused by steep US tariffs.
There are growing speculations that the US administration is seriously considering imposing a staggering 245 percent tariff on imports from China in response to Beijing’s retaliatory measures — a move that reveals Washington’s erratic approach and its detrimental impact on global markets and economic stability.
Meanwhile, Western media has raised concerns about China’s economic health, as reflected in its recently released official report.
According to the latest published report of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) China’s GDP for the first quarter of 2025 reached to 31.875 trillion Yuan (US$4.337 trillion), increasing 5.4 percent on a year-on-year basis, and 1.2 percent quarter-on-quarter compared to the previous Q4, 2024 vividly reflecting its diversity, qualitative industrialization, effectiveness of its new economic drivers and last but not least, openness, modernization and economic globalization.
Western pseudo-intellectuals, self-proclaimed economists, and their media allies—including some in Pakistan—have expressed disbelief over China’s sustained economic growth amid the ongoing US tariff war, dismissing it as a mirage or data manipulation.
However, such claims are baseless and politically motivated.
China’s economy has shown impressive resilience, with the primary sector growing by 3.5 percent, the secondary by 5.9 percent, and the tertiary by 5.3 percent, all contributing to robust GDP growth and industrialization.
Industrial value-added by large enterprises rose 6.5 percent year-on-year and 7.7 percent in March, driven by advancements in digitalization, AI, green technologies, EVs, and lithium batteries.
Equipment and high-tech manufacturing surged by 10.9 percent and 9.7 percent respectively, while the modern service sector—including IT and software—grew by 9.9 percent.
These figures underscore the strategic depth of China’s structural reforms and the strength of its qualitative industrialization, proving that US tariffs have failed to dent its economic momentum.
The gradual recovery of China’s consumer market is a positive sign, with retail sales rising 4.6 percent year-on-year for the quarter and accelerating to 5.9 percent in March, reflecting the strength of its double circulation economy.
Fixed-asset investment also increased, with high-tech industry investment growing by 6.5 percent, indicating stronger domestic investment and industrial balance.
Meanwhile, total imports and exports rose by 1.3 percent, and exports surged 6.9 percent to 6.13 trillion yuan, underscoring diversification.
Per capita disposable income grew by 5.6 percent, effectively countering Western narratives of rising poverty and unemployment, and reinforcing the resilience of China’s socio-economic framework.
It is a promising sign that, despite a complex and challenging external environment, the domestic economic foundation is being continuously consolidated and further strengthened.
The role of innovation is being enhanced and new drivers of development are accelerating, reflecting the true essence of China’s economy.
It is a healthy development that, despite the ongoing trade war and the imposition of US tariffs, the Chinese economy continues to per-form well, effectively countering the ongoing hybrid media war against it.
Fortunately, its macro-economy has remained solid, thanks to a recovery in domestic demand.
The most pleasant surprise is the strong retail sales, which indicate that consumption subsidies are in-deed working.
The writer forecasts that the Chinese policy makers would announce further stimulus measures to gear up the domestic demand further to encounter the adverse impact of the tariffs.
The data looks encouraging, as growth may help close the output gap.
Both external and domestic demand was good in the first quarter.
Retail sales remained extremely strong despite negative price effects.
Fixed asset investment is recovering well, in line with double-digit growth in excavator sales and working hours.
In summary, despite US recession the Chinese economy remained resilient.
It fears that in the short term the US high tariffs may exert some pressure on China’s economy and foreign trade but it will not change the long-term positive trajectory of China’s economic growth.
Thus China’s economy has a stable foundation, multiple advantages, strong resilience and vast potential.
It seems that the Chinese President’s grand diplomatic visits to Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia have achieved immense economic support and social assurance forming a joint response against the US high tariffs.
It is pertinent to mention that the Pakistani policy makers must try to connect with Beijing and show some political solidarity, diplomatic alignment and economic coordination in the difficult times and avoid solo flight towards Washington DC for achieving mere some financial bounties and trade concessions.
It bodes well that China has posted unexpectedly strong economic growth in the first three months of 2025, sending an upbeat message about its economic stability, sustainability and strategic value of its qualitative industrialization creating new standards of innovation and modernization.
Growth in China, the world’s second-largest economy, is in the spotlight as it deals with the fallout of an escalating trade war with the USA however, it is suggested that the policy makers of China take some more integrated measures to gear up the real estate industry.
China’s economic foundation is stable, resilient and has great potential, so it has the national resolve, capacity and confidence to cope with external shocks and achieve the desired goals of socio-economic prosperity and industrialization.
It is high time that Islamabad must align with Beijing and try to chalk out a holistic and comprehensive counter strategy for countering the US tariffs failing to which CPEC may be further slowdown.
—The writer is President, Pak-China Corridor of Knowledge, Executive Director, CSAIS, regional expert: China, CPEC & BRI. (mehmoodulhassankhan@yahoo.com)
