DURING a recent visit to the United States, Mr.Modi reportedly agreed to a $1 billion arms purchase deal with President Trump, though initial hesitation over tariff issues had caused delays.
The treatment of undocumented Indians—many deported in handcuffs—symbolizes a broader sentiment that Americans harbour distrust toward Indians, often viewing them as manipulative in business and immigration matters.
Yet, in the larger strategic calculus, India remains a vital economic and geopolitical partner for the US in its effort to counter China.
President Trump, driven primarily by business interests, consistently seizes opportunities to generate revenue through deals, arms sales or investment campaigns—evident in his push for Saudi Arabia to commit one trillion US dollars in American investments.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Modi is under political pressure at home from opposition parties over the implications of this evolving Indo-US relationship.
Still, both sides appear satisfied with the outcome.
Trump gains business and geopolitical leverage; Modi secures international validation and a narrative to maintain domestic credibility.
Although tariffs remain a point of contention, they are reportedly being reduced for India and are expected to be resolved in due course.
Nevertheless, with Bangladesh getting out of the orbit of India after 15 years of RAW-controlled governance is becoming a headache for Modi.
There’s no doubt that the high headedness with which the Indian intelligence was controlling Bangladesh, one day had to boomerang.
The people of Bangladesh are the most politically conscious people in the Indian subcontinent.
The last thousand years’ history of Bengal speaks of their political awareness all the time, their struggle against the kings and the tyranny therefore what happened in Bangladesh is a natural phenomenon.
Mujeeb in 1971 election had won the election on the basis of inequality, economy, preferential treatment vis-à-vis West Pakistan and not on the basis to form a separate country.
It is Pakistan’s ruling elite and politicians’ own mistakes that the hawks in the Awami League forced Mujeeb to take a hard line.
Bhutto influenced the military regime to deny Mujib to form government which led to a civil war.
The rest is the history.
The people of Bangladesh are Bengali first then Muslims.
They could not tolerate that they be ruled by the Hindu India in a manner that would change complete culture and orientation of the Bengali Muslim society in Bangladesh.
What happened in Bangladesh is a natural phenomenon though it is being blamed on ISI, Pakistan and America.
Reportedly, it was India to strengthen its hold and save regime of Hasina Wajid, was planning to place a division of Indian Army in Dacca.
Though there is no such proof, but as far as the people of Bangladesh are concerned, it was a serious development.
Indian hoaxes are clamouring for a military action against Bangladesh.
Thus, one cannot rule out Indian aggression.
India is the largest arms buyer from Russia.
Trump has forced India to have a deal and buy latest arms the details of which are filtering out.
Indian opposition is criticising Modi on F35 expensive deal, technically controlled by USA.
Nevertheless, India’s search of fifth generation aircraft and weaponry is going on.
For Pakistan, it is a matter of great concern.
India is arming itself ostensibly against China yet prime target remains Pakistan.
India militarily, technically is a mismatch against China.
Earlier, Indian Foreign Minister Jai Shankar’s visit before and during the inauguration was considered a failure.
He failed to secure any credible assurances, even after meeting Mr.
Rubio, the new U.S.Secretary of State.
In the follow-up, Prime Minister Modi’s visit also fell short of the expectations projected by Indian media.
Although a lengthy joint statement was released, much of what transpired behind the scenes remains speculative.
Reportedly, President Trump and the Secretary of State pressed India to clarify its position—whether it stands with the United States or aligns with the Global South.
So far, India has been attempting to maintain ties with both sides, a stance the US now finds unacceptable.
As a result, India has reportedly leaned toward the West, effectively compromising its position within BRICS, despite being a founding member.
This shift has drawn criticism from the Indian opposition.
Jai Shankar is once again in the United States.
Besides the tariff issue, Bangladesh remains another point of concern.
Ironically, Pakistan faces a similar dilemma, as it must balance its relations between China and the United States.
IMF funding comes from Western-controlled financial institutions, where the United States holds significant leverage.
Pakistan should be prepared to navigate a complex set of challenges.
With India arming itself, the threat is likely to be directed toward Pakistan.
India is not in a position to confront China—whether in conventional warfare, strategic capability, communications or the cyber sphere.
The strategy is to engage China diplomatically and pressurise Pakistan.
For this imbalance, Pakistan will face dual threat of conventional aggression in a proxy war, increased terrorism in Pakistan is part of India’s strategic game plan.
There is no doubt that the happenings in Pakistan are being fuelled by India to the maximum supported by other anti-Pakistan players, yet it must be noted that if Pakistan has fault lines, India too, has its weaknesses. Assam was supposed to become part of Pakistan, as Punjab was divided on the western side.
However, Assam was given to India by the Boundary Commission. Bangladesh has consistently insisted that this was a great injustice at the time of partition.
On the eastern front, India has been arming rebels in Burma to fight against government forces in order to secure its access to Assam from the upcoming seaport it is building on the western coast of Myanmar.
Tension between Bangladesh and India are also likely to escalate, as India is making every diplomatic and economic effort to pressure Bangladesh.
New developments in Afghanistan, both in domestic politics and internationally—with the US reportedly securing a deal with the Taliban, regaining access to the Bagram base and supporting the Haqqanis—are likely to have far-reaching impacts, not only on Pakistan but also on China, which has significant investments in the region.
With the US back at Bagram, the base is expected to serve as an outpost to monitor the situation in Central Asia and Iran and to exert influence over Pakistan and China on the eastern front.
The base will also give the US greater flexibility in dealing with Iran.
Pakistan is concerned that it will continue to face pressure from both the east and the west in this evolving strategic environment.
It is claimed that recent Pak-Afghan diplomatic engagements are beginning to bear fruit.
The ongoing nuclear talks between the United States and Iran are likely to cast a shadow over the regional strategic environment.
Regardless of whether these talks succeed or fail, they will have a profound impact on both the regional and global landscape.
In the event of hostilities or Israeli aggression, the entire region could be engulfed in conflict.
Pakistan would then face a dual challenge: managing an influx of refugees and maintaining neutrality.
To prevent a sustained imbalance against Pakistan, it must urgently address its internal issues on three fronts—military, political and economic.
A highly articulate and coordinated approach will be necessary to navigate the pressures that are expected to mount in the coming days.
—The author is a Brigadier Retired, a decorated officer with 32 years of active combat experience, 30 years in corporate sector as MD/COO. A column writer, Researcher and TV analyst.
(tariqkhalil21@gmail.com)
