ON 14 May, I published an article titled “Modi, what were you thinking?
” This article speculated as to why Modi hesitated in launching an attack, and when he did attack, why was it short lived?
What did India lose during and after the conflict?
And what did Pakistan gain?
Since I was in Washington, the article was composed based on real time interactions in the US and witnessing the changing perceptions about India and Pakistan.
Arguably, Pakistan did well militarily, but perhaps equally important was Pakistan’s gain in another crucial area – Pakistan regained credibility that it had lost over the decades.
As one US analyst put it, “since the capture of Osama bin Laden when Pakistan lost all credibility in the eyes of the US, Pakistan has regained credibility”.
During the sojourn in Washington, I met with USG functionaries as well as World Bank and think tank officials.
One common strand in the participants was their history with Pakistan – they had served in or have been affiliated with Pakistan.
The objective of the trip, which was planned months before the war, was to engage senior diplomats (ambassador rank officials) and other partners to work towards dispelling misconceptions about Pakistan and help create regional synergies.
Having served in Pakistan and the region, they were well placed to deliver.
To jump-start the process of creating a “Pakistan Connection” there was a planned lunch with the Pakistani Ambassador but alas, it had to be postponed in light of the war.
Regardless, the group continued to meet and discuss the mini-war and the future actions for Pakistan.
Specifically, Who won?
Who lost?
And what is the way forward?
This piece is a summary of the deliberations.
The mini-war shattered the myth of Indian military prowess.
Additionally, the war brought Modi’s India into the lime-light and the world saw Modi’s India for what it had become: unrestrained, incredible, intolerant, non-secular and with a government controlled media.
Hence, India suffered a loss of image.
Further to this, India also suffered diplomatically whence it was unable to sell its anti-Pakistan narrative.
The diplomatic arrogance that FM Jaishankar had been projecting came back to haunt India.
India had been bullying the world due to its recently found economic prowess, but the war showcased an age-old truism – people give in to a bully, but when the bully is down, everyone rejoices and sides against the bully.
Similarly, India found itself isolated during this crisis while Pakistan gained support.
India’s isolation and loss of credibility was noteworthy and it speaks volumes that one friend, a former US Ambassador of Indian heritage said “I don’t know Modi’s India.
Right now, I trust Pakistan much more than I trust anything coming out of India”.
In sum, India lost on all fronts: military, reputational and diplomatic.
Compared to India, Pakistan came through as the grown up in the room.
Pakistan’s behavior was seen as restrained, calculated and mature, and Pakistan was observed to be credible.
Surprisingly, Pakistan achieved “narrative superiority” over India.
Furthermore, Pakistan’s military response was far superior to India’s.
One US military analyst summed it as “Pakistan’s response will be studied in War Colleges for years to come.
The way Pakistan did multi-domain integration in defence allowed Chinese equipment to perform in manners that was not thought possible.
I would much rather go to war with Chinese using Chinese equipment than go to war with Pakistanis using Chinese equipment.
” Concurrently, Pakistan diplomatically out-shined India with myriad nations backing Pakistan.
Pakistan was a clear winner on many fronts and India the loser.
This leads to the question “What is the way forward?
” Pakistan has to build on its new found respect in the US.
The winds are favouring Pakistan right now, but the life span is short.
Modi has damaged India’s goodwill in the US but that will change when Congress comes into power in the next elections.
So Pakistan has three years to establish inroads in the US and concurrently garner US support for a settlement to Kashmir.
The US is prime ground right now, because not unlike India, the US itself has few friends in the world and is looking for friends.
Trump’s “America First” doctrine has led to “America Alone” which is leading America to reach out to Pakistan, and Pakistan should embrace it.
Not only is America giving Pakistan new found respect, but within the South Asian region Pakistan is also sitting in a good place.
All of the countries in the region see India as a bully and an enemy, while Pakistan has gained respect by standing up to India.
Pakistan should embrace its regional big-brother role.
To build the positive narrative, Pakistan should engage the senior US officials who have served in Pakistan and the region.
They should be invited back for a visit to Pakistan to see the country and engage with policy-makers, think tanks, press and the private sector.
They should also be taken to visit all the beautiful sites of Pakistan, something they couldn’t see while serving here due to the US embassy travel restraints.
Engaging them would serve dual purpose.
First, they can support the Pakistani narrative and image building.
Second, they can build bridges between Pakistan, Bangladesh and other regional countries since they have served in the countries and maintain close contacts.
Pakistan has many friends and well wishers, we simply need to engage them.
—The writer is a former Senior Advisor to the Government and a sector development specialist. He is a member of the APP Think Tank and Pakistan’s Buddhist Heritage Promotion Ambassador for GTPL, a company under SIFC.
