AS Pakistan stands at the precipice of 2025, the urgency to confront the climate crisis has never been more pronounced. The revised Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which form the backbone of Pakistan’s climate ambitions, offer a roadmap to navigate the existential threat posed by climate change. Yet, Pakistan’s ability to translate these ambitious goals into meaningful action will determine whether the country can rise to the challenge or be swept away by the tides of ecological disaster. The revised NDCs reflect Pakistan’s recognition of the urgency of the climate crisis. The country has committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 60% by 2030, with 35% of this target contingent on international financial support. These targets, while ambitious, represent the potential to reshape Pakistan’s future. However, the alignment of these targets with the country’s broader economic policies reveals a troubling disconnect. The absence of a coordinated approach between the NDCs and Pakistan’s five-year development plans exposes a glaring vulnerability. The country’s climate strategy risks being undermined by an incoherent policy framework that fails to integrate climate action into its economic ambitions.
Pakistan’s political landscape, fraught with macroeconomic instability and external pressures such as the IMF’s financial programs, has often undermined the integration of climate considerations into national economic planning. With the 18th Constitutional Amendment in place, the fragmentation of governance has made it even more challenging to implement climate policies effectively at the provincial level. Without robust mechanisms to align national climate goals with provincial priorities, the nation’s climate strategy is bound to remain a collection of lofty promises rather than a cohesive blueprint for action. The 2025 climate action agenda must rectify this by embedding climate action in the national and provincial planning documents, ensuring that climate resilience is prioritized at every level of governance. In this context, the country’s energy transition, a critical pillar of the NDCs, must take centre stage. Pakistan has set an ambitious target of achieving 60% renewable energy in its national energy mix and 30% electric vehicles by 2030. The energy sector is the largest contributor to Pakistan’s carbon emissions and addressing this issue will require a paradigm shift. The government’s commitment to phasing out coal imports is a step in the right direction, but it must be followed by decisive action: building the infrastructure for renewable energy, incentivizing the adoption of electric vehicles and ensuring green energy solutions are accessible to all. Without these investments, Pakistan risks locking itself into a future of fossil-fuel dependence.
Pakistan’s vulnerability to climate impacts is starkly visible in the agricultural sector, which remains the backbone of its economy. The NDCs’ focus on adaptation, including the enhancement of water management systems and the protection of vulnerable ecosystems, is essential. However, these measures will be meaningless unless implemented with urgency and foresight. Empowering local communities, particularly in rural areas where climate change is having the most severe effects, must be at the heart of Pakistan’s climate strategy. Local governments must be equipped with the resources and authority to lead climate adaptation efforts. These communities, with their intimate knowledge of the land and challenges they face, must be the vanguard of resilience-building in the face of increasingly frequent and severe climate-related disasters. One of the most pressing challenges for Pakistan in 2025 is the credibility gap in its NDCs. While the country has set bold targets, its track record in meeting previous commitments is less than stellar. The failure to implement the NDC 2.0, coupled with an inability to develop actionable plans at the provincial level and insufficient budgetary estimates, has weakened Pakistan’s position in international climate negotiations. The credibility gap directly impacts Pakistan’s ability to secure international climate finance. Without closing this gap, Pakistan risks becoming a bystander in the global climate dialogue, unable to access the funds and resources necessary to implement its climate ambitions.
In 2025, Pakistan must move beyond rhetoric to effectively implement its NDCs through realistic, science-based targets, clear action plans and robust monitoring frameworks to regain international trust. Financial resources should be mobilized from domestic and global sources like the Green Climate Fund, alongside carbon pricing mechanisms. Private sector involvement in climate projects and infrastructure for carbon trading markets is crucial. However, equitable distribution of climate action benefits, particularly for marginalized groups, women, and youth, remains essential for sustainable progress. As Pakistan enters 2025, it faces a crossroads. The climate crisis is not waiting for anyone and the window of opportunity to act is rapidly closing. The country’s NDCs represent a critical moment. It is a chance to either demonstrate global leadership or fall further behind. Climate change is already shaping our reality. Yet, even in the face of these challenges, there is hope. Pakistan has the potential to be a leader in climate action, but this will require a paradigm shift that prioritizes justice, equity and long-term sustainability. Pakistan must lead the charge toward a green, sustainable future, not just for its people, but for the entire planet. The question is not whether we can afford to act; it’s whether we can afford not to.
—The writer is a policy advocate and researcher. She is a Public Policy Master’s graduate of King’s College London.
(soha.nisar@yahoo.com)
