INDIA’S false flag operation in Pahalgam, Indian-Occupied Kashmir—resulting in the death of 26 tourists and wrongly blamed on Pakistan—flopped along with its unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).
In response, Islamabad closed its airspace to Indian airlines, forcing carriers to reroute flights bound for Europe, North America, Central Asia and the Middle East.
Air India, IndiGo, Akasa Air and SpiceJet are now constrained to adopt longer, and costlier, flights on its westbound routes, pushing some flights to add a refuelling stop or cancel certain routes.
IndiGo, the country’s largest airline by market share, stated that around 50 routes have been impacted, while flights to Almaty, Kazakhstan and Tashkent, Uzbekistan have been temporarily suspended.
Air India’s flights to or from North America, Europe and the Middle East now have to adopt an alternative extended route.
India’s unilateral and thus illegal suspension of the World Bank- sponsored IWT will not hurt Pakistan in the near future, but Pakistan’s restrictions on its airspace are making it harder for Indian carriers to compete with other airlines, which continue to fly over Pakistan.
According to aviation analytics company Cirium, Indian airlines had more than 9,000 international departures scheduled only in April; of these, Air India was scheduled to fly 519 flights to Europe and 309 to North America.
Additionally, the Middle East—a key region for Indian workers and leisure travellers, necessitates flying over Pakistan also faced closure.
The UAE, the most popular destination, attracts some 7.2 million Indian nationals — of which 50% are Indian migrant workers, 41% are made up of leisure and recreational travellers, while the remaining 9% are business travellers, according to India’s tourism data.
Indian carriers will pay a heavy price.
The five-month closure of Pakistan’s airspace in 2019 cost the airlines $82 million, now in one month of airspace closure, the airlines will face losses of more than $150 million.
The aviation sector’s financial strain could ripple into other industries, affecting trade and tourism.
In view of India’s jingoism, Pakistan has closed specific portions of its Karachi and Lahore Flight Information Regions also cancelling all commercial flights operations to and from Gilgit and Skardu.
In a knee-jerk action, India Navy despatched its aircraft carrier INS Vikrant on April 23, positioning it close to Pakistan’s territorial waters.
However, Pakistan Navy’s anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) strategy successfully repelled the sitting duck INS Vikrant, compelling it to withdraw to the INS Kadamba naval base in Karwar.
Meanwhile, Pakistan Army shot down two Indian quadcopters, a Phantom-4 in the Satwal sector and the other in the Manawar sector of Bhimber which had crossed the Line of Control (LoC) and were engaged in aerial espionage.
Following the 27 February 2019 successful operation Swift Retort—in which Pakistan Air Force shot down an Indian MiG-19, capturing its pilot Wing Commander Abhinandan alive and successfully targeting an IAF Su-30, whose wreckage fell across the LoC—Modi had lamented that if the French Fighter jets Rafales had arrived on time, India would have taught Pakistan a lesson.
Now that India has inducted 36 Rafale fighter jets at an enormous cost of $ 9 Billion, Pakistan has checkmated its adversary by acquiring the Chinese PL-15 Beyond Visual Range (BVR) missiles having a range of up to 300 kilometres and speeds exceeding Mach 5 (five times the speed of sound).
No wonder that four IAF Rafales patrolling near the LoC, beat a hasty retreat when PAF fighter interceptors appeared.
Indians, you can run but you cannot hide.
Ironically, the Pakistan defence forces spokesperson presented “irrefutable evidence” of India’s involvement in terrorism within Pakistan.
This included the arrest of an individual, Abdul Majeed, who was allegedly trained in India.
Authorities recovered an Indian-made drone, explosives and cash from his possession.
Forensic analysis reportedly linked him to Indian military officials, including Subedar Sukhwinder and Major Sandeep Verma, who were accused of coordinating attacks targeting both civilians and security forces in Pakistan.
The evidence also included intercepted communications and operational details of attacks allegedly orchestrated by Indian handlers.
The DG ISPR claimed this was part of a broader campaign of state-sponsored terrorism aimed at destabilizing Pakistan.
It is a tense and complex situation, where the nuclear weapons in both arsenals could lead to Mutually Assured Destruction and endanger the entire globe with the fallout.
This grim situation underscores the need for diffusing tensions and resolving the row between India and Pakistan through diplomatic and practical steps.
A neutral mediator, like China, Russia, Turkey or an international organization like the UN Security Council, could facilitate peace talks.
Modi is in a quandary because his plans against Pakistan have not only backfired but exposed.
Lieutenant General D.S. Rana has been removed from his position as Director General of the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) and reassigned to the harsh conditions and isolation of Andaman and Nicobar Command, in a punitive measure.
His transfer is reportedly linked to the leak of sensitive RAW documents, which were allegedly accessed and made public by The Resistance Front (TRF).
The leaked documents reportedly exposed fabricated military operations, including the controversial Pahalgam mission, leading to intense scrutiny of India’s intelligence agencies.
Simultaneously, other Indian senior officers—Lieutenant General MV Suchindra Kumar, Northern Army Commander and Air Marshal SP Dharkar, the Vice Chief of Air Staff of the Indian Air Force—were sacked for refusing to launch attacks against Pakistan.
Contrarily, the entire Pakistani nation is willing to embrace martyrdom to defend its sovereignty.
—The writer, Retired Group Captain of PAF, is author of several books on China. (sultanm.hali@gmail.com)
