THE recent ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) has brought India’s approach to the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) into serious question.
The PCA reaffirmed Pakistan’s objections to the Kishanganga and Ratle hydropower projects, ruling that India’s actions violated key provisions of the treaty. This verdict, while welcomed by Pakistan, has drawn sharp criticism from India, which had previously declared the IWT “held in abeyance” in the aftermath of the Pahalgam terrorist attack—a unilateral move that undermines international legal frameworks and threatens regional stability.
India’s posture following the attack, including reported missile and drone strikes, has been interpreted in Pakistan as acts of aggression. These developments reflect a broader pattern of policy shifts in New Delhi, where diplomatic conventions are increasingly sidelined in favor of hardline tactics. The growing disregard for treaty obligations and international arbitration decisions represents a concerning trend in South Asia’s already volatile security landscape.
At the domestic level, a prevailing narrative in India attributes blame for internal unrest to Pakistan and Indian Muslim communities. Media outlets aligned with the ruling BJP often amplify these claims, filling evidentiary gaps with speculation. Under the ideological influence of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the BJP has adopted exclusionary political strategies, marginalizing religious minorities and stoking nationalist fervor. The vision of an “Akhand Bharat,” openly endorsed by key elements within the BJP, feeds into the party’s political messaging and informs its regional posture.
This rhetoric resonates with broader anti-Pakistan sentiment, framing Pakistan’s very existence as a historical misstep. The RSS ideology envisions a reversal of the 1947 Partition, with alarming implications for both domestic harmony and cross-border relations. In such a context, Pakistan’s Islamic identity, military capability, and nuclear deterrent are often presented in Indian discourse as threats to be neutralized, feeding into a narrative that positions Prime Minister Modi as the strongman who can reshape the region’s future.
Such positioning, however, comes at a dangerous cost. In a nuclearized environment, the pursuit of aggressive posturing risks unmanageable escalation. Given the disparity in conventional military strength, Pakistan is compelled to rely on deterrence to maintain strategic balance. India’s growing assertiveness—especially post-Pulwama—has been met with restraint and strategic clarity from Islamabad, which has consistently acted to avoid full-scale conflict.
The PCA’s ruling serves as a reminder that international mechanisms still hold weight, and that unilateral actions against treaty obligations cannot go unchecked. India’s dismissal of the court’s authority, coupled with its increasing hostility toward regional diplomacy, sets a troubling precedent. A pattern of sidelining global norms, engaging in transnational operations, and suspending bilateral agreements without consensus erodes trust and undermines peace.
The global community must take note of these developments. Respect for international treaties and an institution is essential to maintaining regional order. The PCA’s verdict, rooted in the legal text of the IWT, affirms the importance of accountability. It is imperative that states, especially those with considerable regional influence, uphold the norms they have committed to—lest legal order be replaced by political expediency and power politics.
—The writer is contributing columnist, based in Islamabad.
