THE Israel-Iran conflict, marked by missile strikes on nuclear sites and martyrdom of senior officials of the Iranian military and nuclear scientists, triggered the possibility of global economic ripples and regional instability.
For Pakistan, the geopolitical consequences remained multifaceted. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the economic lifeline of Pakistan, since its initiation has been facing obstacles and troubles from all over. With a long wave of terrorism and political instability in the region, the Middle East has once again ignited to the shores of Pakistan. The covert rivalry between Iran and Israel for decades blew up into a full-fledged war, following Israel’s Operation “Rising Lion” and Iran’s retaliatory Operation “True Promise III”. The design of bringing Rising Lion (Reza Shah) back in power in Iran proved to be a nightmare for Netanyahu and Trump.
Israel launched missile strikes to cripple Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Israeli strikes targeted atomic research centres and martyred high-profile figures, including Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Hossein Salami and scientist Fereydoon Abbasi. The Iranian top military brass was martyred by Mossad in a covert operation within Iran. In return, Iran’s response to Israel has been surprising. Iranian Ballistic missiles and drones attacked Tel Aviv, Eilat and Haifa, striking critical targets such as Haifa’s oil refinery and the US Embassy. Iran’s barrage exposed vulnerabilities in Israel’s defence systems.
The conflict badly jeopardised Pakistan’s strategic interests. Security concerns were looming overhead. Pakistan’s 909-km long border with Iran in Balochistan has long been utilised for smuggling and insurgency. A destabilised Iran may embolden separatist groups, posing a direct threat to the $65 billion China–Pakistan economic corridor. Because of the Iran-Israel conflict the economic impact was immediate: Brent crude rose 7% to $75 a barrel and concerns grew over the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which transports approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day. The conflict caused tremendous multiple challenges to Pakistan, which has already been facing inflation, debt crisis and political instability. A jump in global oil prices might have raised Pakistan’s monthly import bill by $3 billion, worsening already high inflation rates of more than 30%.
For Pakistan, now is the time for internal fortitude, hard diplomacy and strategic clarity. It could have become a pawn in international power battles if it makes an unwise decision. More worrying remained the prospect of global realignment and a shift in regional power structure. A pro-West or pro-Israeli regime in Iran might have strengthened ties with India, giving New Delhi easier access to Central Asia via Chabahar but surprisingly the Iranian radical regime successfully survived. If pro Israel Reza Shah had been brought in power in Iran he would have reduced Pakistan’s geopolitical and economic standing. Intelligence cooperation between Iran’s pro-West Shah’s expected government and India might have further isolated Pakistan.
Domestically, there could be multiple repercussions for Pakistan. As a Sunni majority country but with a sizable Shia minority, Pakistan risks sectarian fragmentation if at any stage the Iran-Israel conflict had become overtly sectarian. Indian sponsored extremist groups may utilise the conflict to instigate internal unrest, like previous proxy spillovers from the Iran-Iraq War. The state must exercise prudence while managing religious narratives and averting sectarian violence, particularly in cities like Jhang, Quetta, Karachi and Parachinar. Pakistan could face serious geopolitical challenges. On the northwest front, the Taliban government, which already has serious concerns with Pakistan, may use Iranian instability to back anti-Pakistan insurgent organisations operating in Balochistan. A chaotic border zone amongst Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan might serve as a haven for extremists, undermining the entire Western front. In this continuously changing situation, the US exerted pressure on Pakistan to take a stance by giving military bases, providing intelligence support and over-flight privileges to conduct any operation. In case of prolonged battle Iran and Israel might have resulted in refugee flow from Iran into Pakistan.
Iran-Israel conflict has become a seismic event with global consequences. For Pakistan, now is the time for internal fortitude, hard diplomacy and strategic clarity. It can become a pawn in international power battles if it makes an unwise decision. With careful manoeuvring, Pakistan can establish itself as a stabilising factor in a volatile area. Pakistan should engage in active diplomacy to avoid unnecessary entanglements. Pakistan remained on the right side in the OIC and the Muslim world by supporting Iran. If Pakistan had remained mute or ambiguous, it would have risked and viewed as inconsequential in regional Muslim geopolitics. During Iran-Israel war without fear Pakistan openly supported Iran. Strategic pragmatism remained critical to maintain sovereignty and avoiding becoming a pawn in a larger regional confrontation. Pakistan’s response to this crisis determined its fate not only regionally but also globally.
—The writer is author of several books based in UK.
(naveedamankhan@hotmail.com)
