THE Russia-Ukraine crisis has entered 693 days. But what has happened in such a long period of war is one of the few questions that keep bothering the security analysts. The invasion left behind huge numbers of casualties, deaths, damage to the infrastructure, boycotts, sanctions, energy crisis and food insecurity worldwide. The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence said Russia’s military might have changed its strike strategy in Ukraine to target the country’s defence industry rather than energy infrastructure as it did last winter.
The ministry said in its latest intelligence update, that Russian planners almost certainly recognise the growing importance of relative defence industrial capacity as they prepare for a long war. As of January 2024, Russia and Ukraine exchanged hundreds of prisoners of war in the biggest single release of captives since Russia launched its special military operation on February 24, 2022. Ukrainian officials said that 230 of its prisoners were released while Russia said 248 of its soldiers were returned following mediation by the United Arab Emirates. But were the attacks over? No. Russia said Ukraine launched attacks on its Belgorod and Kursk regions, as well as the Crimean Peninsula that Moscow invaded and annexed from Ukraine in 2014. Belgorod regional Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said the situation remained “tense” after 12 missiles were shot down over the region.
If we closely observe the nature of the invasion, it kind of affects the lives of Ukrainians, Europeans and all those countries who rely on food supplies from Ukraine and Russia. Today we can see there is a huge resistance on the part of those financially supporting the Ukraine war. The US will be unable to continue providing more weapons and equipment to Ukraine if Congress doesn’t approve additional funding, the White House said, trying to prod lawmakers to quickly make progress in complicated negotiations on Capitol Hill. Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said the country will need more than $37bn in foreign funding this year, and that Kyiv was counting on “stable and timely assistance” from its international partners to help keep its economy going. It is believed that cutting off the aid, weapons and equipment will kneecap Ukraine on the battlefield.
The war in Ukraine shows little sign of ending, with continued destruction and losses on both sides. Sanctions against Russia continue, but its economy is growing and in the US political support for Ukraine’s war effort is under pressure. So what could happen in 2024? If we assess the ultimate purpose of the conflict: The ultimate objective seems to be to damage the Russian economy and its military power. But have they achieved it? They wished to stop Russia and pushed them hard to move back. But are they successful in stopping the Russian war? Their utmost objective was to damage Russian currency. But is Russian currency in a free-fall today or is it further strengthened?
According to the IMF, the Russian economy will grow 3% in 2023 while inflation is still in a single digit. If we look at their military capabilities, their military hardware production has accelerated which is itself contributing to its economy. Russia has introduced many new war machinery and participated in many defence expos to showcase its military strength across the world. They have already received around $5 billion worth of military hardware orders from African nations. According to international observers, Russia seems to be winning the war as the Western military and financial support system is waning badly. A recent example is the US Congress’s inability to provide military package/aid to Ukraine. The success of Russia has demoralized the Western world where their reluctance to provide military and financial support to Ukraine is seen as a fatigue.
Since 7 October 2023, there has been a drastic shift of US policies from Ukraine towards Israel. This shift leaves behind minimal Ukraine coverage in Western media. This has been proven that every news has a shelf life and the Ukraine news seems to have lost its place as a headline and has gone in the background due to loss of momentum. There are new players with a new game in town that kind of leaves behind the Ukraine war that has gone into hibernation/backyard. But did it happen for the first time? No! The Afghanistan war received the same fate as the Ukraine war and the Ukraine war was treated the same way as the Gaza war. Who knows when a new war somewhere else will overtake the world’s attention from the Gaza war to a new war to test new weaponry, technology and war machinery. History proves from WWI to WW2, the Cold War, Vietnam War, Korea, Iraq-Iran war, Afghanistan wars etc. have witnessed new ways and means of military capabilities and weaponry. For 2 years, Ukraine has been a laboratory to test weaponry. Maybe some different testing grounds are required to test weapons with a different set of environments. Hence, long live the US military-industrial complex that flourishes at the cost of innocent civilians around the world.
—The writer is Assistant Professor, Department of Government and Public Policy, National University of Sciences and Technology.
Email: farahnaz@s3h.nust.edu.pk
views expressed are writer’s own.
