Saudi-Iran rapprochement
SAUDI Arabia and Iran agreed to resume diplomatic relations in a deal which was brokered by China. It ended the seven years of estrangement and shifted the geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East. This accord marks China’s diplomatic outreach in the region, and Beijing appears to be a key player in the geopolitical chessboard of the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia and Iran have a history of adversary. Despite a breakthrough after signing an agreement in 1998 and a security agreement in 2001, bilateral relations started to ebb during the Arab Spring 2011 when Saudi Arabia sent more than 1000 troops to Bahrain for quelling a protest of Shiite community, which was against the Sunni royal family of Bahrain. Moreover, Syrian civil war in 2011 and Yemen war in 2015 have added another dimension to the geopolitical rivalry.
Iran-Saudi rift was created when protesters stormed Saudi embassy in response to the execution of Shiite cleric Sheikh Nimr al Nimr by Saudi Arabia in 2016. It heightened tension that resulted in the degradation of diplomatic relations. Bilateral relations further complicated when Houthi rebels struck two key oil installations inside Saudi Arabia in 2019, and Riyad blamed Tehran for supporting the rebels to carry out this attack, the charge which Iran denied.
In 2021, Iraq started mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia, but no breakthrough was achieved after five rounds of talks. Similarly, Pakistan has always been vociferous proponent of Saudi-Iran normalization. Yet, in a significant move, China has succeeded in ending the diplomatic rift between Iran and Saudi Arabia through a deal on March 10, 2023.
The factors which led to the normalization of relations are changing regional security landscape, dwindling US role in the Middle East, changing strategic priority of the US, growing China’s diplomatic outreach, emerging economic prospects of China and more significantly, unfolding multipolar world order.
In addition, shifting foreign policy of Saudi Arabia as it has recently normalized relations with Türkiye and Qatar—the policy is likely to be extended to all countries, especially Iran (and Israel will perhaps be the next move)—is regarded to be one of the main reasons for this development. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 also appears to have been a rationale for this move. Likewise, Iran’s quest to escape isolation and get relieved the sanctions over its nuclear programme has expedited the normalization process. But the most immediate reason can be growing divergence between Washington and Riyad.
Saudi-Iran détente will shift regional geopolitical dynamics. The Middle Eastern region has been grappling with proxy wars for more than one decade; the geopolitical rivalry of both countries has aggravated the regional security landscape. The sectarian divide, disorder in Muslim world, regional arms race, socioeconomic predicaments and lack of cohesion to create a united front for Palestine cause have been the ramifications of Saudi-Iran tension. Therefore, restoration of diplomatic relations will certainly shift regional geopolitical sands as Saudi-Iran animosity has fomented all these quandaries.
Equally important, Iran-Saudi rapprochement has global implications. It marks China’s growing diplomatic influence in the region where the US has been a dominant power for several decades. It will bring a paradigm shift in global energy market. Major global energy routes and checkpoints, supplemented with the Chinese ventures under Built and Road Initiatives (BRI), may come under Beijing’s influence. China’s geo-economic and geopolitical footprints also increase in the region that will eventually be a prelude to its superpower status. In future, China will play a defining role in the regional security arrangement and strategic stability.
Indeed, this development offers many boons to Pakistan. For years, Pakistan has faced challenges at foreign policy front to maintain neutrality in the face of Saudi-Iran competition in multiple war fronts, like Yemen war. Despite Pakistan’s tilt towards Saudi Arabia on account of economic compulsion, Islamabad has always maintained a cautious approach—not getting sucked into geopolitical rivalry of Saudi Arabia and Iran. Therefore, Pakistan no longer needs a delicate balancing act in its foreign policy toward Saudi Arabia and Iran after the reconciliation.
This development will also provide an impetus to Pakistan’s geo-economic policy initiative. Although Pakistan has pursued a policy of economic engagement with regional countries, it seems unattainable unless regional countries are reciprocal for win-win cooperation. Saudi-Iran tussle has shrunk the space for regional connectivity. Pakistan’s geo-economic strategy cannot succeed in an atmosphere of intense competition. Therefore, restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran will provide opportunity to extend the CPEC by inviting other partners for investment and regional economic integration.
Besides this, regional sectarian tension has compounded Pakistan’s internal security challenges. As regional motives of sectarian militant outfits alleviate by the virtue of Saudi-Iran normalization, it will shape internal security landscape of Pakistan. For years, Iran and Saudi Arabia sought to exert influence by motivating regional sectarian groups to further their geopolitical objectives, so improved relations of regional rivals will diminish extremism and terrorism challenges. Defused sectarian tension will eventually bring stability and religious tolerance in Pakistan.
As Pakistan faces energy crisis and economic meltdown, this development in the Middle East will offer some economic prospects for the country. Pakistan can bolster its economic and energy relationships with Saudi Arabia and Iran. It certainly paves the way for commercial engagement, trade, investment and energy supply in future.
To conclude, China has played a momentous role in Saudi-Iran rapprochement. It will shift regional geopolitics with prospects for Pakistan. Although the success of the deal is questioned as Saudi Arabia and Iran have deep differences, historical animosity, divergent objectives and clash of great power interests over this development, changing pattern of global geopolitical climate and China as guarantor provide some optimism.
—The writer is a strategic affairs and foreign policy analyst.
