The residents of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) have once again endured significant distress stemming from the recent state assembly elections, conducted after a decade long hiatus and characterized by allegations of electoral malpractices. Final voting phase has concluded with results and subsequent government formation anticipated in this month i.e. October 2024. The outcome of this electoral process will serve as a critical indicator of public sentiment regarding the revocation of Articles 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution. This pivotal moment in IIOJK’s political landscape necessitates a thorough examination of its implications for regional governance and societal response.
Some of the Indian and IIOJK’s key political parties, vehemently opposed to the repeal of these constitutional provisions, including the Congress, Communist Party of India, Communist Party of India (Marxist), National Conference, Peoples Democratic Party, DravidaMunnetraKazhagam (DMK), and Trinamool. Congress and its major IIOJK-based political affiliate, the National Conference, are running in the assembly elections on the platform of restoring the revoked constitutional articles.
Since 2019, the Modi government has implemented far-reaching changes — administrative, electoral, demographic, and domicile rules — to pave the way for elections, with the goal of consolidating its 2019 action and claiming that this has been ‘accepted’ by the people of J&K, with ‘normalcy’ returning. In fact, last month, prior to the announcement of the election date, the government significantly strengthened the powers of the lieutenant-governor (LG), who is appointed by Delhi, in order to severely limit the authority of the next ‘elected’ government. The Modi government has chosen to keep central control, knowing that the BJP or its proxies will not win the election and refusing to delegate authority to anybody else.
The LG was given broad administrative and security powers, including control over the police, civil worker transfers and postings, prosecutorial sanctions, and other public order issues. His actions will not be reviewed by the Council of Ministers, and his nominees will be able to attend cabinet meetings. Commenting on this, Omar Abdullah stated the chief minister’s office had been reduced to “a powerless rubber stamp” while Congress denounced it as the “murder of democracy”. This, however, was just the latest move to weaken the people of occupied Kashmir. Two important post-2019 acts sought to restructure the electoral map and change the state of play to the harm of Kashmiris. In 2020, India’s Delimitation Commission established new electoral constituencies, with Jammu receiving six additional members in the 90-member J&K Assembly and Kashmir receiving only one, despite the fact that Kashmir’s population much outnumbers Jammu’s. This gerrymandering was intended to give Jammu more representation, reducing Muslims’ political weight in the legislature and shifting the balance to Hindus.
Demographic changes, including new domicile rules, aimed to disenfranchise Kashmiris. Following the repeal of Articles 370 and 35A of the Indian constitution, non-Kashmiri outsiders were granted domicile status and the right to vote. Over the last five years, an undetermined amount of domicile certificates have been issued. In July 2022, even temporary residents were granted voting rights. Again, this was condemned in Jammu and Kashmir as a reckless attempt to change the demographics.In the face of such deceptive moves, what can be expected in the election, albeit to a toothless legislature? What does the poll signal for the BJP government’s ‘consolidation’ goals? The National Conference, led by Omar Abdullah, is highly expected to win the election.
In its election campaign, the party committed to fight for the restoration of Article 370, which granted J&K special status, abolish all post-2019 policies that degraded Kashmir’s autonomy, and promote India-Pakistan dialogue. Abdullah further stated that the NC’s first item of business would be for the assembly to pass a resolution calling for the restoration of statehood and condemning Delhi’s decision to remove J&K of its special status. If this occurs, it will do little to further the BJP’s goal in the area. In truth, a squabble between the ‘elected’ administration and the LG is apparently unavoidable, and rather than establishing ‘stability’, it will plunge the region into further political chaos.
The most critical factor will undoubtedly be whether people voice their displeasure with Delhi and rejection of the occupation through a protest vote. Elections in Jammu and Kashmir have long been regarded as pointless and illegitimate under Indian control. This is apparent in the abysmally low public participation, particularly in light of boycott calls by genuine Kashmiri leaders, depriving the polls of any validity.
However, the comparatively high voter turnout in the 2014 LokSabha election implies that voting may become a ‘new’ form of resistance and expression of Kashmiris’ desire for freedom. The Modi government is facing challenges in securing endorsement of its 2019 action and may encounter new obstacles from the elections that boosts the popular Kashmiri demand for ‘azadi’. While sham elections in J&K cannot replace a genuine exercise of self-determination for the Kashmiri people, it may serve as mean for them to express their rejection of the occupation.
—The writer is a research fellow at Epis Think-tank Germany and an intern at Kashmir institute of International relations. His fields of studies include Foreign Policy, Peacebuilding and Conflict Resolution. He can be reached at Ali7664556@gmail.com
