THE Asia-Pacific region is a complex and changing security environment, shaped by growing great power competition, territorial disputes and emerging non-traditional threats.
Non-state actors are increasingly influencing security dynamics on the ground. The United States and China are playing pivotal roles in shaping South Asian regional security dynamics, while India finds itself in a Catch-22 situation, aspiring to emerge as the sole security provider in the region yet constrained by a tailor-made narrative that clashes with on-the-ground realities. The rise of China, coupled with the relative decline of U.S. influence, has significantly altered the balance of power. This shift has triggered regional military buildup, intensified competition for strategic resources and fuelled escalating tensions among key players.
The rivalries are also causing proxy conflicts, drawing other countries in the region into the power struggle. Iran, being the only potential contender to stand against the Israel’s hegemony in the region, is often accused for secretly working on nuclear technology and remains the target not only for Israel but also for the U.S. and its allies. The long-standing hostility between India and Pakistan, especially their dispute over Kashmir, continues to impair regional security. As a result, regional security patterns are shifting to adapt to these developments, expanding the traditional military conflicts to non-traditional threats.
Today’s security threats are complex, borderless and deeply interconnected. Events in one region, whether conflict or discovery, can swiftly impact lives and economies worldwide. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran is a clear example of how fear and insecurity can shape our world. The idea of “When in doubt – kill” led to more people being targeted, not just militants. It included scientists, neighbours, and even those who were simply nearby. AI-controlled weapons and mass-detonation devices mark an evolution to self-directed killing. Israel’s approach has transformed international violence, from hunting gunmen and bag carriers to scientists and other high profile personalities. It is said that new standard have been set; up to 100 civilian deaths acceptable to eliminate one commander or a scientist.
Israel’s strategic focus remains on the underground Iranian enrichment facilities. Israeli strikes have repeatedly attacked these targets to degrade the infrastructures, assassinating nuclear scientists, even targeting negotiators. Yet these actions, while dramatic, could not eliminate Iran’s programme. Finally, the U.S. had to physically come to cause the damage. How far these attacks have been successful and to what extent these facilities were effected, is yet to be known but Iran’s commitment to retaliate creates many questions. If Iran hits back the U.S. bases in the region, it will be a big chaos. Some strategists are of the opinion that the Israel’s irrational offensive may have hasten the very outcome Israel seeks to prevent. The U.S. and Israel’s strikes, targeting nuclear infrastructure and assassinating key regime figures including nuclear negotiators have shattered decades of managed hostility.
The escalating campaign by Israel and the United States underscores both rising regional tensions and a deepening power vacuum. The U.S. assurances no longer carry the same weight they once did, and as confidence in American commitments continues to erode, an increasing number of states in the region are quietly reassessing their strategic calculus, to manage their defence through indigenous capabilities. While Iran’s nuclear programme may reconstitute with greater urgency and less transparency, state collapse scenarios multiply dangers of nuclear materials in contested territories. Notably, Israel refrained from striking Iran’s key oil infrastructure, possibly viewing such an action as a double-edged sword.
The US policy of waging war through banks has also transformed US foreign policy into an economic warfare machine, one that shapes every international crisis through the distorting lens of financial punishment. Countries start conflicts when they fear losing trade access, not when they are economically dominant. Warnings of impending ‘storms’ and a ‘decisive decade’ reflect deep anxiety, suggesting decisions driven more by fear than by confidence. India’s apparent distancing from the United States, despite longstanding American support for its role as a key regional security power and counterbalance to China’s rise, marks one of the most significant shifts in South Asia’s strategic landscape.
While patching up with China or Pakistan may be a difficult option for it, India will definitely try to strengthen its inroads in to Iran by exploiting recent interactions between the U.S. and Pakistan. That will definitely aggravate security situation on our western borders. The message India may be trying to send is non-alignment and independence in decision-making to maintain multipolar engagements, as long as these favour its agenda of dominating the region. By balancing relations across camps, India seems to aim at maximizing its national interests and global leverage. While India remains wary of China, its avoidance of hard alignments creates space for dialogue and regional diplomacy. Pakistan should expect a much harder stance from India on all bilateral issues.
Although recent shifts in the global order have prompted the United States to reconsider Pakistan’s strategic relevance as a potential ally, the trajectory of Pak-U.S. relations requires careful retrospective analysis. While current U.S. engagement may offer Pakistan certain diplomatic advantages, it is imperative that Pakistan prioritize mitigating any apprehensions that may have emerged in its relationship with China, a long-standing strategic partner. Carving a balanced relationship with China and the U.S. will be important but is going to be a big challenge. Israel-Iran war is an illustration of how modern conflicts influence not only geopolitics but also regional/global stability and everyday life, potentially leading to long lasting consequences for the complete region.
—The writer is Security Professional, entrepreneur and author, based in Dubai, UAE.
