SOUTH Asia’s geopolitical landscape is undergoing a subtle yet powerful transformation.
At the heart of this shift lies an emerging triangular alignment among Pakistan, China, and Bangladesh, which appears to be challenging India’s long-standing bid for regional dominance. As Beijing deepens its political, economic, and strategic engagements with Dhaka and Islamabad, a new counterweight is forming—one that promises to dilute India’s hegemonic posture and recalibrate power equations across the subcontinent.
Nowhere is China’s growing influence more visible than in Bangladesh’s rapidly modernizing infrastructure. With investments exceeding $4.45 billion across 35 major development projects, including iconic undertakings like the Karnaphuli Tunnel and Padma Bridge Rail Link, Beijing is embedding itself firmly in Bangladesh’s coastal and strategic corridors. These projects, crucial under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), are not just economic lifelines—they are strategic arteries that signal China’s long-term intent to consolidate its presence along the Bay of Bengal.
This momentum is reinforced by an accelerating trade partnership. China has become Bangladesh’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade volumes reaching record levels. This economic interdependence has not only elevated China’s leverage in Dhaka’s decision-making but also integrated Bangladesh into Chinese supply chains, placing Beijing in a commanding position over critical economic sectors.
The bilateral relationship has now evolved into a wide-ranging Strategic Partnership, following recent agreements between the two nations. Twenty fresh cooperation pacts—spanning trade, infrastructure, digital technology, and defense—coupled with a $1 billion aid commitment, signal a decisive move beyond transactional ties. What was once a commercially driven engagement is now morphing into a comprehensive strategic alliance.
China’s infrastructural footprint across Bangladesh further solidifies its strategic calculus. Over 550 kilometers of roads and bridges built by Chinese firms are not merely conduits for commerce—they represent dual-use assets that can facilitate both economic activity and military logistics. This capability for rapid mobilization, especially near maritime chokepoints, is a crucial component of China’s broader plan to assert logistical dominance across South Asia. Meanwhile, the synergy between China and Pakistan continues to grow through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), defense cooperation, and shared geopolitical interests. Now, with Bangladesh entering this growing sphere of influence, a strategic pincer is visibly taking shape around India. The simultaneous tightening of ties with India’s eastern and western neighbors is not coincidental—it is a calibrated effort to constrain New Delhi’s regional outreach and complicate its strategic options.
This evolving triangular relationship presents a multidimensional challenge to India. From undermining its strategic autonomy to creating vulnerabilities along both land and maritime borders, the China-Pakistan-Bangladesh axis is steadily eroding India’s room for unilateral assertion in the region. For India, the implications are serious and very grave. As South Asia moves into a new era of alignments, the rise of this strategic tripartite equation may well become the defining feature of the regional order indeed.
—The writer is analumnus of QAU, MPhil scholar &a freelance columnist, based in Islamabad.
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